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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
—-> Wednesday’s high temperatures are questionable. If we have full sunshine then 78 to 84 will be possible. If we end up with low clouds, then some stations may struggle to hit the 70 degree mark. Clouds are the deciding factor. Keep that in mind.
In addition to that, please notice that the rain event continues to trend lighter. Northern counties may end up with little or no measurable rainfall. Best chance of 0.10″ or greater will be southern counties. See the rainfall graphics farther down in the blog. <—-
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
—-> Wednesday’s high temperatures are questionable. If we have full sunshine then 78 to 84 will be possible. If we end up with low clouds, then some stations may struggle to hit the 70 degree mark. Clouds are the deciding factor. Keep that in mind. <—-
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Wednesday, November 8, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Medium confidence in today’s forecast. Models show a range of cloud cover and temperatures. IF we avoid clouds, then temperatures will rise into the 78 to 85 degree range. If we have low clouds, then temperatures may struggle to get out of the low to mid 70s. Confidence in cloud cover is low.
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy, at times. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Southern Illinois ~ 74° to 76° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 74° to 78° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Far western Kentucky ~ 75° to 80° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Northwest Tennessee ~ 75° to 80° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 30 mph. If we have more sunshine, then wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82° (less clouds and temperatures will rise well into the 70s and perhaps 80s)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Scattered showers developing.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 11 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:43 AM
Moonset: 2:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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The entire rain event has been trending farther south. This does raise questions about how far north to bring the rain and final rain totals. Adjustments are still possible.
Thursday, November 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A few showers possible. Shower chances will be higher over our far southern counties. Shower chances will be higher during the afternoon and evening hours.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Little coverage far north. Higher coverage far south.
Timing of the precipitation: Higher chances in the PM hours.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely over portions of the region. Higher coverage over our southern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous far south. None to isolated far north.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:41 AM
Moonset: 3:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, November 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Morning clouds. A chance of mainly morning showers. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Mainly south southeast counties.
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 12 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 56° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor morning radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:29AM
Sunset: 4:49 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Clearing. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 35°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:41 AM
Moonset: 3:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Warm today. Clouds in some counties will shunt temperatures lower.
- Scattered light drizzle and showers tonight.
- Mostly dry Thursday (except far south). Scattered showers south.
- Rain showers Thursday night (mainly south).
- Colder Thursday into the weekend. Nothing extreme.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
Good morning, everyone.
We are waking up to plenty of sunshine. That was one question we had in yesterday’s forecast.
Low clouds may develop over the coming hours from the Misssouri Bootheel into portions of southern Illinois. How widespread those clouds are will help determine today’s high temperature forecast.
If the clouds do not materialize or are short lived, then you can expect widespread upper 70s to middle 80s. Record high temperatures.
There remain questions about the cloud cover topic.
At 7 am, you can see clouds forming in Arkansas. This is what we will be watching today.
Otherwise, for those of you with plenty of sunshine…you can expect a very warm November day. Temperatures will be 20+ degrees above seasonal averages. That equals 80s.
Winds will be gusty today, as well. You can expect 10 to 20 mph winds with gusts to 35 mph (locally higher). Blowing and drifting leaves? That is possible!
Patchy light rain and drizzle will be possible tonight. Rainfall totals tonight will be less than 0.10″. Many areas may simply remain dry.
Thursday has trended drier (during the day). I have the highest shower chances over the Missouri Bootheel and then east along the Kentucky/Tennessee border southward.
Elsewhere, rain chances will be considerably lower.
Rainfall totals during the day Thursday will be less than 0.10″.
This gives you a general idea of rain probabilities from 7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday.
Rain chances ramp up Thursday night.
Now, if you have been reading the blog over the last few days, then you will know that I have been saying less rain north and more south.
That continues to be the forecast.
There are STILL questions about how far north to bring the rain shield.
Some data sets show it missing most of the region.
For now, we continue with this rainfall forecast. Keep in mind, the northern portion of this could receive less.
Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will receive 0.00″ to 0.10″.
The Missouri Bootheel east along the Kentucky/Tennessee border will receive 0.25″ to 0.50″.
Those in-between will receive 0.10″ to 0.25″. Not a lot of rain. Most of this will fall Thursday night.
No severe weather, no snow, and no ice.
It will turn cooler Thursday behind the cold front. Highs will likely remain in the sixties.
Cooler Friday into the weekend. Overnight lows will dip back down into the frosty thirties.
Did you catch yesterdays long range video? It is calling for a top three warmest Decembers.
See that on your app or on the www.weathertalk.com website.
It is winter weather preparedness week.
Let’s take a look at frostbite.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the GFS Model Future-cast Radar. What radar might look like.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the EC Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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