Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee.  Lower chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly  cloudy.  A chance of showers. Perhaps a rumble of thunder.  A wide range of temperatures because of a frontal boundary.  Cooler northwest and warmer southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous (I will need to see where the front stalls)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~  54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:28 AM
Moonset:  8:40 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Thursday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly our southeast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~  52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:13 PM
Moonset:  9:48 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:   Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction:  East southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:48° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 12:51 PM
Moonset:  10:58 PM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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Saturday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:   Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:   Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction:   South southeast  at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:48° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 1:24 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Good morning, everyone.

It was a stormy night over portions of the region.

Rain continues to move across portions of the area.

Here is what the 6:30 AM radar looked like.

You can see where the frontal boundary is draped.  It will be slow to move over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Additional rain is likely near the front.  It will even push a tad farther northwest tonight.

It is kind of hard to read this rainfall map, but here are the totals, thus far.

Anywhere you see yellow, at least one inch of rain has already fallen.  The orange and red colors are higher totals.

Notice those gray colors in Missouri and Illinois.  Those locations received four to six inches of rain.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

The frontal boundary will stall today from Arkansas into Kentucky.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue into tomorrow.

Here is the Hrrr model.  Notice how the rain does not move.  That is the stalled front.  It could even push a bit farther northwest tonight.

Time stamp upper left.  Zulu time.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.  00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am.

And the NAM model

With time, the front will slowly fade away off to the southeast.

Peak rain chances will be today and tonight.

Portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will remain dry today into Thursday night.

You can see that a bit better here.  This is the rainfall forecast for today into Friday morning.  A sharp cutoff.

Dry for our northwest counties.  Wet for our southeast counties.

Another storm system will develop Friday into Sunday.

I can’t rule out isolated showers and storms Friday, but chances will ramp up Friday night into the weekend.

Another one to two inches of rain will be possible with that system.

Here is the seven day rainfall totals.  Double click the image to enlarge it.

Here is the GFS model showing the weekend system.  It might pull in some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

There still is not any solid cold air in the forecast.

Occasionally, the GFS model shows colder air around the 14th to 18th.  But, confidence in that is low.

Temperatures will be above average over at least the next seven days.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the WRF Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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