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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
November 5th to November 11th
Current risk: At this time, tornadoes are not anticipated.
Current confidence level: Medium confidence.
Comments: A few strong storms on Friday. Currently, the severe risk appears to be minimal.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible on Friday morning into Friday evening. A band of showers and thunderstorms will move across the region.
2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. A few of the thunderstorms on Friday could be strong with gusty winds and nickel-sized hail. The severe weather risk appears to be small, but I am monitoring it closely. The risk may be a bit higher over Kentucky/Tennessee.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? YES. Temperatures will dip below freezing on Sunday night/Monday morning and Monday night/Tuesday morning.
7. Is a killing frost in the forecast? YES. Heavy frost is possible on Monday morning and Tuesday morning.
Here is the short-range concern meter.
I will be monitoring Friday’s forecast. A few of the thunderstorms could be strong.
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Here is the extended concern meter.
Lightning is possible on Friday. For now, I have removed the risk of lightning on Saturday.
I kept us out of the blue, for now. Some data shows a few strong storms over Kentucky/Tennessee on Friday afternoon/evening. I am monitoring trends in the guidance.
A few strong storms are possible, but the risk of severe weather is limited. Worst case, I will pop us into the blue for a couple of storms producing wind damage (mainly over Kentucky/Tennessee).
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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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Here is your bus stop forecast.
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion
- Warm/mild today through Saturday.
- Monitoring shower and thunderstorm chances late Thursday night into Friday evening. A few storms could be strong over Kentucky/Tennessee.
- A stronger cold front is expected on Saturday/Sunday. A few showers will also be possible with that front.
- The coldest air of the autumn, thus far, will arrive next week.
- A hard freeze is likely on Sunday night and Monday night. There is a chance of flurries with the cold air.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.
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Today and tomorrow
We are waking up to a nice morning. Temperatures are warmer than they were yesterday morning.
Here were the 5 am temperatures.
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There are no weather concerns today through tomorrow. Dry conditions. Breezy, at times (esp over MO/IL).
Temperatures will remain above average over the coming days. Some locations will hit 70+ degrees!
Today’s highs
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Thursday highs
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Friday highs
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Saturday highs
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A cold front will approach the region late Thursday night and Friday. Scattered showers are possible after 1 AM on Friday. See the future-cast radars below. See the video for more details.
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Friday through Monday
Two cold fronts will pass through the region between Friday and Monday.
The first cold front will arrive on Friday. The second cold front will arrive on Saturday and Sunday.
The Friday front has more moisture to work with. The Saturday/Sunday front will be stronger, but will have less moisture to work with.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front on Friday. Most likely late Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Ending Friday night.
Thunderstorms will be possible with the front. A few of the storms could be strong with gusty wind and small hail. The risk of severe weather appears limited, but perhaps not zero. The risk for stronger storms will be higher over Kentucky/Tennessee. Monitor updates.
In the worst-case scenario, we will have a low-end severe weather risk on Friday afternoon and evening, primarily for damaging winds and hail.
Rainfall probabilities (% chance of rain) from 6 PM Thursday to 6 AM Friday
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Rainfall probabilities (% chance of rain) from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM Friday
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Rainfall chances 6 PM Friday to 6 AM Saturday
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Rainfall chances from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday
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Rainfall probabilities from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM Sunday
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Rainfall probabilities from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM Monday
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Another round of scattered showers on Saturday/Saturday night. Perhaps a rumble of thunder.
Some of the model guidance indicates that the Saturday front will move through our region dry. I do believe we will see at least a few showers develop along the front. Chances will be a bit higher over Kentucky and Tennessee. A bit lower over Missouri and Illinois.
Either way, rain probabilities are fairly low for now.
Rainfall totals from Friday through Sunday will likely be mainly on the light side.
Keep in mind, thunderstorms will enhance rain totals. If you find yourself under a thunderstorm, then rain totals will be higher.
For the most part, however, rain totals will range from 0.01″ to 0.25″ over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois to 0.20″ to 0.50″ over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Here are the latest rainfall forecast maps. Most of this will fall late Thursday night into Friday.
Less west. More east.
Double-click images to enlarge them.
Western view.
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Eastern view
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I would not cancel any weekend plans. Monitor updates over the coming days.
See the video for more details.
Colder Temperatures
The coldest air of the autumn season will arrive next week.
Temperatures may actually fall during the day on Sunday.
A hard freeze is likely to occur on Sunday and Monday nights.
Gusty winds are likely on Saturday and Sunday. At times, gusting above 20 mph.
You can see the cold air arriving in this animation. Those blue colors are temperatures in the 20s.
This is the GFS model. The EC model is not as cold, but still plenty chilly. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle of those models.
In the end, it appears a hard freeze is likely next week.
Time stamp upper left. Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Monday morning low temperature forecast
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Tuesday morning low temperature forecast
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Wind chill values will be cold.
Sunday morning wind chill values (6 AM)
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
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Monday morning wind chill values (6 AM)
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Tuesday morning wind chill values (6 AM)
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A few snow flurries or sleet pellets are possible on Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. No accumulation anticipated. It will be cold enough, however, for some novelty flakes in the air.
Whether there will be enough moisture left for flurries is questionable. The chance will be a bit higher over Kentucky.
Temperatures are expected to moderate by the middle of next week. It won’t be as cold.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
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Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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