November 5, 2024: Unsettled weather. Mild weather to continue with above to well above average temperatures.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible on and off into the weekend.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. There is a small chance of a few strong wind gusts today. I am monitoring Friday and Saturday. Another front arrives, at that time. It may merge with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will spread across the entire area by this afternoon, continuing into Tuesday night, accompanied by breezy conditions. A front is then forecast to stall somewhere near or over the region, resulting in on and off rain chances through the remainder of the week. Humidity will stay above 50 percent each afternoon through the end of the week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Outlook

Weather Analysis Video

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Chances will spread west to east. Slowly. Most of today will be dry over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 4:53PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 10:36 AM
Moonset: 7:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lower chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 4:52 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. A wide range of temperatures because of a frontal boundary. Cooler northwest and warmer southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (I will need to see where the front stalls)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 11:28 AM
Moonset: 8:40 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over mainly our southeast counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 4:51 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
Moonrise: 12:13 PM
Moonset: 9:48 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 72° to 75°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: East at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 4:50 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 12:51 PM
Moonset: 10:58 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Unsettled week ahead with on and off rain chances.
2. Much above average temperatures early in the week. Above average the rest of the week.
3. Widespread rain today and tonight.
4. Watching another cold front Friday into Sunday.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

I hope you are having a nice week. The weather remains amazing with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. I say amazing. Some of you might actually want autumn weather to return.

Unfortunately, the next seven day will deliver above average temperatures. At times, well above average.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Average lows are in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

We will be far above that through next Tuesday.

Check out this temperature anomaly animation. Red and pink indicate above average temperatures.

The 6:30 AM radar showed this. The rain will SLOWLY move east today. Much of today will be dry over southeast Illinois and Kentucky. Rain will slowly spread into southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee as we move into the late morning and afternoon hours. Then, into the evening hours.

Here was the 6:30 AM radar animation.

The band of rain will move eastward today. The risk of severe weather remains minimal. A couple of storms could produce gusty winds.

Here is the latest Hrrr model. This is what this model shows for the rest of today into tomorrow.

The time-stamp is in Zulu. 12z=6am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Scattered showers may linger into Wednesday night and Thursday over mainly the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky and Tennessee. That will partly depend on the exact placement of the stalled frontal boundary.

If the front slides slightly farther southeast, then the rain will push off to the southeast, as well.

Another storm system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the region Friday and Saturday. This system may combine with the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. There remain questions about the track of the tropical system. I am closely monitoring it.

I did ramp up rain chances Friday PM into Saturday.

Here is the latest National Hurricane Center track forecast

You can see that on the GFS model animation. This takes us into the weekend.

Watch the front to our west join up with the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

It is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern this weekend. I can’t rule out some locally heavy rain.

Monitor updates.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.