Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

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The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

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November 5, 2018
Monday forecast:  Morning fog.  Partly to mostly cloudy.   A chance of a few morning light showers.  Showers and some thunderstorms increasing during the afternoon from west to east.  Locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible.  There is a conditional risk of strong to severe storms late in the afternoon across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Monitor updates later today.  Conditional means that in order to have severe storms we will need to see surface based CAPE develop and dew points jump above 58.  See discussion further down in the blog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 north and 64 south     IL ~ 58 north and 64 south         KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% this morning and 70% by the afternoon     IL ~ 20% this morning and then 80% later this afternoon     KY ~ 20% this morning and then 80% as we move deeper into the afternoon     TN ~ 20% this morning and then 80% by mid to late afternoon
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated this morning.  Becoming widespread by mid to late afternoon.
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  Southeast to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds likely in and near any showers and storms.  Strong jet stream winds aloft today.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce damaging wind, hail, and even a tornado.  The main concern for severe weather is across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Yes.  A conditional risk of severe storms.  See discussion further down.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and have a plan B
UV Index: 2 to 3  Low, because of clouds
Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be severe this evening across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50    IL ~  45 to 50  KY ~ 45 to 50       TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70% mainly early and then 40%     IL ~ 70%  mainly early and then 40%    KY ~ 90% mainly early and then 40%     TN ~ 90% mainly early and then 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early in the night and then becoming scattered late
Frost Risk: No
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: South becoming west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.   Lightning.  Severe weather possible early in the night (mainly across the Missouri Bootheel into west KY and west TN)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Yes
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
Sunset: 4:53 PM
Moonrise:  4:02  AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  4:09 PM

November 6, 2018
Tuesday forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64       IL ~ 58 to 64          KY ~ 58 to 64       TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: Southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 to 6 moderate to high
Sunrise: 6:23 AM

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of light showers.  Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 42     IL ~  36 to 40      KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Frost Risk:  No
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  Becoming north at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps an isolated wet roadway.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:51 PM
Moonrise:  5:06  AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  4:42 PM

November 7, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Some morning clouds.  Clearing.  Cool.  Any remaining light showers will have ended.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58          KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: North at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 to 6 moderate to high
Sunrise: 6:26 AM

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear. Cold.  Patchy fog possible.  Frost.
Temperatures: MO ~ 32 to 38     IL ~  32 to 36      KY ~ 34 to 36      TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk:  Frost
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  Variable wind at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:51 PM
Moonrise:  6:12  AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  5:18 PM

November 8, 2018
Thursday forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~ 45 to 50          KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: Northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:27 AM

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of light rain or light snow.  Little or no snow accumulation.  Monitor updates since temperatures may fall below freezing.  This could lead to slick spots on bridges.
Temperatures: MO ~ 26 to 32     IL ~  26 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 34      TN ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Frost Risk:  A freeze likely will occur
Is snow or ice anticipated?  Yes.  Some scattered snow showers possible.  At this time, accumulating appears unlikely.  Monitor updates with falling temperatures.
Wind: North at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Slick spots on bridges.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 4:50 PM
Moonrise:  7:16  AM New
Moonset:  5:55 PM

November 9, 2018
Friday forecast: Cloudy during the morning with a chance of snow showers.  Becoming sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 50      IL ~ 45 to 50          KY ~ 46 to 52     TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending
Is snow or ice anticipated?  Most likely no
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none, but monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high
Sunrise: 6:28 AM

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a freeze likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 23 to 26     IL ~  23 to 26      KY ~ 24 to 26      TN ~ 24 to 28
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk:  A freeze likely
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:49 PM
Moonrise:  8:16  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  6:36 PM

November 10, 2018
Saturday forecast:  Mostly sunny and cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 44 to 48      IL ~ 44 to 48          KY ~ 44 to 48     TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:29 AM

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a freeze likely.  A few clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 32     IL ~  28 to 32      KY ~ 28 to 34      TN ~ 28 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk:  A freeze again possible
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:48 PM
Moonrise:  9:15  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  7:21 PM

November 11, 2018
Sunday forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54      IL ~ 48 to 54        KY ~ 50 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind:  South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:30 AM

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A shower or snow shower possible.  Cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 32     IL ~  28 to 32      KY ~ 30 to 34      TN ~ 30 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Frost Risk:  A freeze again possible
Is snow or ice anticipated?  A chance of snow showers, but accumulation is unlikely
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:47 PM
Moonrise:  10:09  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:08 PM

November 12, 2018
Monday forecast:  Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 48 to 54      IL ~ 48 to 54        KY ~ 50 to 54     TN ~ 50 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is snow or ice anticipated?  Most likely no
Wind:  South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 4  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:31 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Clearing.  Chilly.   Fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 28 to 32     IL ~  28 to 32      KY ~ 30 to 34      TN ~ 30 to 34
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Frost Risk:  A freeze possible
Is snow or ice anticipated?  No
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 4:47 PM
Moonrise:  10:58  AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  9:0 PM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today and tonight. A conditional risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Lesser chances across the rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and tornadoes.  Monitor watches and warnings later today.   A warning means to seek shelter immediately.

Tuesday through Sunday:  No severe storms.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

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1.  A conditional threat of severe weather today.
2.  A chilly week ahead of us.
3.  Light rain or snow flurry chances later this week

The big weather story today is the threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys (and southward to the Gulf of Mexico).

This is a conditional risk.  What does that mean?  If we don’t reach 58 or higher dew points and surface based CAPE, then severe thunderstorms won’t develop.  Monitor updates this afternoon and evening.

Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar.

Notice how activity dramatically increases as we move into the afternoon hours.

Also, watch after 4 PM across the Missouri Bootheel into parts of west KY and TN.  That is the area of concern for severe thunderstorms.

These events often times produce QLCS tornadoes.  These are usually short-lived and embedded in the rain.

Let me show you a few static images of the future-cast radar.  What radar might look like.

6 PM

Those storms in far southeast Missouri and then into west Kentucky/Tennessee are the ones to watch for the potential of severe weather.

They will be moving eastward.

7 PM

8 PM

Notice the line of storms in west Kentucky.  That line could produce damaging winds and even tornadoes.

9 PM

Again, that line of storms is the concern.  A QLCS will likely develop across Kentucky and Tennessee.

A QLCS is a squall line of thunderstorms with embedded bows and line segments.  QLCS tornadoes are common in these events.

10 PM

The good news is that CAPE values won’t be high today.  CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.  If the CAPE numbers were higher then we would be looking at a widespread damaging wind and tornado event across our region.

Here is the surface based CAPE value map.  Not much.  You can barely see the CAPE.  A sliver of grey color across the LBL area and then into TN.  Surface based CAPE is key to the tornado threat.  Without surface based CAPE we won’t have a tornado threat.

There is not a lot of room for error in the forecast.  Monitor updates.

CAPE values will likely range from 50 to 300.  That is low.  You don’t need, however, much CAPE during the autumn and winter months.

Why?  Because the shear makes up the difference.

Shear is the changing of wind speed and/or direction with height.  Wind shear helps storms rotate.  We will have HIGH wind shear this afternoon and tonight.

These shear numbers are very high.

Helicity numbers are very high.  That has more to do with the turning of winds (spin).  Good thing we don’t have more surface based CAPE.  This would be a bigger event (locally) if we had surface based CAPE.

There remain questions about dew points.  Typically, I like to see dew points in the 58+ range when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

Dew points this afternoon will be marginal.

Notice this surge of higher dew points later this afternoon and evening.

6 PM dew points.  See the higher numbers in west Tennessee?  That is what I will be monitoring later today.

9 PM dew points

The greatest concern will be from the Missouri Bootheel into the Murray, Kentucky area and then east and northeast from there.  That would include western Tennessee.

Here is the map I issued a day or two ago.  This is where I believe the greatest concern is located.

To the left of that line we will have some concerns, but not as great.

Either way, it only takes one tornado to cause problems.

There is not a lot of wiggle room for error today.  I would encourage everyone to monitor the latest weather forecast.  Monitor for any watches or warnings.

Remember, a warning means to seek shelter.

The rest of the week will be colder.

I will post a longer update on the Tuesday through Sunday forecast later this morning.

Updated November outlook for subscribers!

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