November 4, 2024: Unsettled weather. Above average temperatures to continue.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today into Tuesday night over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The chance of lightning will spread farther east late Monday night into at least Tuesday night. Scattered lightning is possible Wednesday. I will keep an eye on the Thursday through Sunday time-frame, as well.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. There is a low risk of severe weather over western portions of southeast Missouri and Randolph County, Illinois. That would mainly be this afternoon into tomorrow morning. The risk is much higher farther west (outside of my area). The primary concern will be damaging wind. The tornado risk is small, but not zero.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday: 3. Very low risk.
Monday night: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Breezy south winds and humid conditions are forecast today. Heavy rainfall is forecast across parts of southeast Missouri. Rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across much of the rest of the area on Tuesday amid humid and breezy conditions. A front is then forecast to stall somewhere near or over the region leading to off and on rain chances muddled in throughout the remainder of the week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

** A WIDE RANGE OF RAIN PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE ZONE FORECASTS DOWN BELOW IN THE BLOG. Also see the rain probability graphics below. **

Monday’s Seven Day Outlook video

Monday long range video update

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm. Chance of precipitation will be higher over southeast Missouri vs the rest of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None far southeast. Numerous northwest.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 75°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 74° to 78°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 74° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered east. Numerous west.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South wind becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:38 AM
Moonset: 6:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:38 AM
Moonset: 6:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lower chances over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 74° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 72° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 75°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. A wide range of temperatures because of a frontal boundary. Cooler northwest and warmer southeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:38 AM
Moonset: 6:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Unsettled week ahead with on and off rain chances.
2. Much above average temperatures early in the week. Above average the rest of the week.
3. A wide range of rain fall totals west to east.
4. Watching another cold front Friday into Sunday.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice weekend. It sure was warm!

Check out these incredible 6 am temperatures. This is what you would expect in the middle of July. Wow.

It is going to be very warm today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages.

Typically, this time of the year, we would experience highs in the lower 60s. Lows in the lower 40s.

Today’s highs

Tomorrow’s highs

Mild mild mild! The theme of Autumn, thus far.

A cold front remains to our west today.

You can see that weather map. The red zone is where locally heavy rain may occur today and tonight.

A warm front extends across southern Missouri into southern Illinois. The primary cold front is still in Kansas.

The system will slowly push into our region today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s weather map shows the cold front advancing into eastern Missouri and Arkansas.

Widespread rain will accompany the front. A few rumbles of thunder, as well.

By Wednesday the front stalls just to our south. Where it stalls will have a major impact on our rain probabilities Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The EC model pushes the front farther south at a faster pace. The GFS model is slower and lingers it close enough to keep rain chances going into at least Wednesday evening.

You can see that front on this weather map (Wednesday).

Rainfall totals will be heavy across portions of southern and southeast Missouri over the next 24 hours.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Here is the rainfall forecast from 6 am today to 6 am tomorrow. Pockets of three to five inches across Missouri. Mostly to the west forecast counties.

There is a sharp cut-off in rain totals as you travel farther east. At least through tonight.

The entire system will push into our area tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Rainfall totals from now through Thursday morning should look like this.

Notice that heavier streak across portions of Tennessee and Kentucky. That is where the front stalls.

As always, totals are going to vary. This is the broad-brushed graphic

Double click to enlarge it.

Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model. Double click the animation to enlarge it.

Time is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=1 PM. 00z=6 PM.

Here is the NAM 3K model. Different model.

Double click to enlarge.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.