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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated. Lightning is possible today into Friday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Thursday: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday night: 1. Very low risk.
Friday: 3. Very low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
As light rain eventually overspreads the Mark Twain this afternoon, dry air and decent dispersion will develop over much of west Kentucky. A widespread wetting rain is expected over the entire region tonight into Friday. For much of next week, the driest air will be over the Mark Twain, while humid conditions prevail east of the Mississippi River.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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Thursday, November 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Shower chances increasing from west to east as the day wears on. Becoming more numerous late in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered AM. Numerous PM.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain. An isolated rumble of thunder possible. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 15 to 35 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A slight chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:29 PM
Moonset: 10:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, December 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely the first half of the day. Tapering west to east during the afternoon. A rumble of thunder possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous AM. Scattered PM.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated, at best
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:31 PM
Moonset: 10:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, December 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:33 PM
Moonset: 11:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Sunday, December 3, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. But most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:33 PM
Moonset: 11:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Monday, December 4, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:31 PM
Moonset: 12:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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- Rain arrives today. Widespread rain tonight into Friday.
- Turning cooler Friday afternoon.
- Low-end weekend rain chances.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone. We are almost to December. Still no snow or ice in the forecast.
We do, however, have rain on the way.
The 7 AM satellite and radar combination shows the system beginning to take shape to our southwest. The rain will spread northeast through the day.
7:30 AM Live Radar Animation centered on Arkansas. You can see the rain developing.
Gusty winds will develop today into tomorrow. The NWS has issued a wind advisory for tonight and early tomorrow morning. The brown zone. This is for wind gusts in the 15 to 35 mph range with perhaps a few 40 mph gusts, as well.
Here is the wind animation. The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the image. It is Zulu time.
00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm.
This is the wind gust animation. Double click images to enlarge them.
A few showers are already beginning to show up on radar across Missouri and Arkansas. This area of rain will expand as we move into this afternoon and evening.
Widespread rain will develop this evening and tonight. This rain will continue into Friday morning. Then, a few lingering showers will be possible Friday afternoon.
I am still forecasting rain totals of 0.5″ to 1.00″. Data over the past 48 hours has trended slightly drier. With that said, we should be in the ballpark with those totals.
Here is the latest WPC rainfall forecast for this event.
Take the general idea from this.
Double click images to enlarge them.
A rumble of thunder will be possible. Isolated lightning, at best. No severe weather.
The weekend will be cool. No extremes Friday night through Tuesday night.
I can’t completely rule out some isolated light showers this weekend. Mainly Saturday night. I have low end shower chances (see the top of the blog post for your area).
We will have a mix of sun and clouds into early next week.
Overall, temperatures will be at or above average into next week.
I continue to monitor the third and fourth week of December for the potential for colder air and precipitation. Long long way to go for that portion of the forecast.
The ensembles show little hope for measurable snow through next Friday. Each of these squares represents one run of the model. As you can see, they are not spitting out snow for our area.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the HRRR Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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