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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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These graphics are for the chance of snow tonight and tomorrow.
I will be monitoring Wednesday into Friday, as well.
Click to enlarge.
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The blog is updated after 3 PM each day. Some small adjustments may be made during the morning hours. The short/long range graphics are updated before 9 AM.
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Sunday night through Sunday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Some light rain changing to snow/sleet will be possible Sunday night and Monday. Any accumulation would be light. Another chance of snow will arrive Wednesday night into Friday. Monitor updates concerning that portion of the forecast, as well.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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November 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold. Breezy, at times. A chance of rain or snow showers. Mainly over our eastern counties in southeast Illinois and western Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 38° SE MO 33° to 36° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 35° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor winter weather forecasts.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Some clouds before midnight. Clouds clearing west to east. A slight chance of flurries over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky (mainly east).
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° MO 18° to 24° South IL 18° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 8° to 16°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly east and mainly early in the night)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 4:59 PM
Moonset: 4:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 42° West KY 36° to 40° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 22° to 25° MO 20° to 24° South IL 20° to 24° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and west at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:42 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 2, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:36 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of rain and snow showers developing from the west/southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° MO 26° to 32° South IL 26° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Monitor updates in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Moonrise: 6:32 PM
Moonset: 8:55 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 3, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a rain or snow shower. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Wind becoming northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Monitor early AM hours in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower is possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 32° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 32° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Monitor in case it snows.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset: 9:48 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 4, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:54 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a rain or snow shower. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° MO 25° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 32° West KY 30° to 32° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Monitor the snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 8:29 PM
Moonset: 10:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 5, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Morning clouds. Clearing west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: West at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:55 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30° MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 26° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 PM
Moonset: 11:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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December 6, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 43° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:56 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° MO 26° to 30° South IL 26° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 26° to 30° NW TN 30° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:40 PM
Moonset: 11:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (when growing season returns).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 6th: No severe thunderstorms.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 29th and 30th
Much colder air arrives Sunday night/Monday. Some rain changing to light snow showers Sunday night/Monday (mainly eastern half of the region).
I am watching snow chances Wednesday night through Friday. Some light snow or wintry mix will be possible.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain and snow showers.
- Much colder air.
- Monitoring rain/snow chances later in the week, as well.
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The main weather story continues to be a strong cold front that is pushing towards the region.
The front will move across the region tonight and usher in much colder air.
That colder air will linger into next weekend.
Rain will develop this afternoon and push out of Arkansas into our local area. Mainly a light rain event.
Rain coverage will be higher over the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee vs areas further north.
There will still be rain chances area-wide. Coverage will just be greater the further south and east you travel.
You can see the system on this computer animation. Green is rain. Blue is snow. The low pressure will deepen as it moves east/northeast.
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As the colder air arrives tonight, the rain will mix with or change to snow showers. At this time, accumulation appears unlikely. I have low-end chances for a dusting.
The chances of a dusting are higher over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. The further east you travel, the higher the chances of a little bit of snow sticking to the grass.
Pavements are warm. Travel issues appear unlikely.
Don’t forget during the winter months we can have black ice form when colder air rushes in behind a cold front. Black ice is simply water that is left over from rain showers. Water that freezes as colder air arrives.
Black ice is not new precipitation falling.
Strong and gusty winds will accompany the system today into Monday night. Gusts above 30 mph are likely. This will make it feel even colder.
Wind gust animation map.
You can also see the temperatures falling on this computer animation.
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A series of disturbances will brush the region Wednesday night into Friday. A mix of rain and snow will be possible with those disturbances. For now, accumulation appears unlikely.
With that said, the pavement will be colder. We will need to monitor for travel issues if rain and snow falls as temperatures drop into the 20s. Monitor updates moving forward.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 30th through December 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 7th through December 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 28 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 11th through the 24th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
Winter Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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