Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: A few clouds.  Otherwise, cold. A small chance of flurries over northern portions of the area.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~  18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 5:23 AM
Moonset:  3:22 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds.   Cold.  A chance of flurries or snow showers.  Snow could mix with sleet.  Mainly over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly north)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.  Watch for icy roads over our northern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.  Monitor radars over our northern counties.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Cold.  A chance of flurries or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~  18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 29° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.  I will monitor the chance of snow showers.  If moisture remains on roadways, then icy roads could develop (with temps so cold).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 6:25 AM
Moonset:  3:58 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 35° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.  There could be some morning icy roads if snow lingers into Saturday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 14° to 16°
Southeast Missouri ~  16° to 18°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 16° to 20°
Southern Illinois ~ 14° to 16°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 14° to 18°
Far western Kentucky ~ 16° to 18°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 16° to 18°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 14° to 18°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 16° to 18°
Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 7:29 AM
Moonset:  4:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

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Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25° (colder before 8 AM)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 18° to 22°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 18° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20° to 22°
Winds will be from this direction:  West 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 8:29 AM
Moonset:  5:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny.  Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°  (Colder before 9 am)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 28° to 32°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~  18° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction:  Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:25 AM
Moonset:  6:34 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Crescent

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Today will be a chilly day across the region with below average temperatures.

Cold temperatures will continue through the weekend.

A fast moving clipper system will bring a few snow flurries to the region late tonight.  Mainly over our far northern counties.

Light snow and sleet will be possible tomorrow and tomorrow evening.  The bulk of this precipitation event is forecast to remain over northern portions of the region.

Little or no snow south.  A dusting to an inch or two will be possible from Ste Genevieve County, Missouri eastward into southwest Indiana.  The odds of any accumulating snow will decrease as you travel south of that line.

Temperatures on Saturday will mostly be above freezing.  As precipitation falls, temperatures will drop slightly.  Just enough perhaps to allow the snow to stick in some areas.  Again, northern counties.

A few showers are possible, as well.  Where temperatures don’t fall below freezing.  That would be on the southern end of the precipitation.  It will be close temperature-wise.

Here is the current thinking on snow totals.  This is from the NWS.  I agree with their forecast.

Here is the forecast range for snow totals.

What is expected

High end potential

Low end of the forecast range

Let’s look at the future-cast radars.

The NAM 3K model and the Hrrr are the higher resolution models.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The Hrrr model shows those showers developing throughout today into tonight.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Here is the NAM 3K model.

Melted precipitation totals will be light.

It will remain cold into much of next week.

Some of the data shows another cold snap late next week and weekend.

This cold wave will be harsh on those who must work outdoors, the homeless communities, and pets/livestock.  A prolonged period of below average temperatures.

Don’t forget our outdoor friends.

Wind chill values will dip into the teens and single digits later this week/weekend.  Wind chill is what the body feels.

Kids at the bus stop next week will need to be bundled up.  It will be cold.

I am watching another cold front towards next Wednesday and Thursday.

That could produce some rain showers, but confidence remains low.  For now, I capped rain chances at 10% to 20%.  I will monitor trends.  A lot of data produces precipitation east of us.

I am watching another shot of cold air late next week/weekend.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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