November 29, 2023: Rain is on the way.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Isolated. Lightning is possible Thursday into Friday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are in store for the rest of the week and weekend. A storm system is on track to bring a period of rain Thursday into early Friday. The heaviest rainfall will occur Thursday night with totals ranging between a half to around one inch. There is a low chance of a returning shower over the weekend, followed by colder temperatures next week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

Wednesday, November 29, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 35°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 35°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:28 PM
Moonset: 9:19 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Thursday, November 30, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Shower chances increasing from west to east as the day wears on. Becoming more numerous.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered AM. Numerous PM.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 56° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain. An isolated rumble of thunder possible. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 43° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 43° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A slight chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 7:29 PM
Moonset: 10:10 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Friday, December 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely the first half of the day. Tapering west to east during the afternoon. A rumble of thunder possible. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous AM. Scattered PM.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west southwest 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated, at best
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 10 to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:31 PM
Moonset: 10:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Saturday, December 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. But most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:33 PM
Moonset: 11:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Sunday, December 3, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. But most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
.

Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 36° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:33 PM
Moonset: 11:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights

1. A decent day ahead of us.
2. Thickening clouds Thursday with rain developing.
3. Widespread rain Thursday night into Friday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

.Forecast Discussion

Today will be a nice day across the region. We have a lot of sunshine this morning. Some increase in high clouds later today into tonight.

There will be the transition day. A new storm system will approach our region from the west southwest. This system will bring increasing moisture levels as Thursday wears on.

Spotty showers will be possible at just about any given time. Higher rain chances, however, arrives Thursday afternoon and evening into Friday morning. It is during this time period that I am forecasting widespread rain across the region.

Rain totals will likely range from 0.5″ to 1.00″. Locally higher totals possible. That is slightly down from 24 hours ago, but still within the range of what we have been forecasting.

The heaviest totals are likely going to be across Missouri and Illinois.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall map. You can take the general idea from this.

I have kept the low end chance of isolated lightning in the forecast, as well. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out, but it won’t be the norm. Isolated, at best.

Scattered showers will continue into Friday afternoon, but the bulk of the event will be over by then.

Rain chances Friday night into Monday are kept low. Mainly in the 10% to 20% range. It is possible that I will have to bump that up to 30% to 40% after some point (perhaps Sunday night). For now, confidence in that is too low to change the forecast.

Just keep in mind, a few showers are possible into the weekend. Generally, however, it will be drier.

Temperatures will be above normal to seasonal over the coming seven day period.

I am watching a fast moving clipper system next Tuesday or Wednesday. That could bring a shot of colder air and perhaps a light shower or even flurry to the region. For now, I am watching that.

The one to two week forecast has been for mainly average to above average temperatures. That takes us into the middle of December.

I continue to watch the third and fourth week of December for perhaps a colder shot of air and a precipitation event. Long way off.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the HRRR Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

This animation is the NAM 3K Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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