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November 29, 2018
Thursday forecast: Intervals of clouds. Not quite as cold. A weak and fast-moving system will push across the area. A few light showers sprinkled across the region.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
I am planning on having the open house Saturday morning/Saturday afternoon. There could be some strong thunderstorms during the PM hours, but the confidence in that happening is not all that great. Thus, we will move forward with the open house.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 45 to 52 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 48 to 52 TN ~ 50 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South to southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? A few rain showers could cause damp conditions.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 11:41 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:29 PM
November 30, 2018
Friday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Patchy showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions if showers develop.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some moderate rain likely. Rising temperatures. Low temperatures early in the night. Rising temperatures overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 54 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous/widespread
Is flooding anticipated? Some commonly flooded areas could have issues with full ditches. Field flooding.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. I can’t rule out severe weather.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Yes. Wet conditions.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Last Quarter
Moonset: 1:06 PM
December 1, 2018
Those going to Memphis for the charity run: Plan on damp conditions early in the morning with rain ending. It is possible that the showers will have just ended by 8 AM. It will be close. Plan on showers and then hope for the best. The drying line will be near you at 8 AM. Windy conditions and mild.
It will be a race against time for morning Christmas parades. The rain will likely cover the area early in the morning and then diminish from southwest to northeast as the morning wears on. That would leave drying conditions with gusty winds. The rain should move out fairly early in the day. To be safe, plan on showers in the area.
Afternoon and evening parades will mostly be dry, mild, and windy. A few additional strong thunderstorms could develop Saturday afternoon, but this is still a bit of a question. If thunderstorms do develop then they could be intense. To be safe, monitor updated forecasts.
Saturday forecast: I will be carefully monitoring late Saturday morning and early afternoon. If storms were to develop during that time period then they could be severe. For now, it appears most of the rain will have ended by then. Windy. Mostly cloudy early. Decreasing clouds through the day. Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10 AM. Diminishing precipitation coverage from southwest to northeast. Monitor the PM hours for additional thunderstorm development.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence) during the morning. Low (30% confidence) during the afternoon.
Temperature range: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 6 to 72
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? Rain chances early in the day. MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50% Rain chances after 12 PM MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous early in the day. Uncertain about afternoon activity. Monitor updates and radars in case storms redevelop.
Is flooding anticipated? Some ditches and low-land flooding possible.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning during the morning hours. I will be closely monitoring clearing sky conditions that could set the stage for a few severe thunderstorms. The confidence in the severe weather part of the forecast is low. Strong and gusty wind conditions throughout the day. Gusts above 40 mph likely.
Is severe weather expected? It is a possibility, although confidence is low.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor morning radars. Rain will continue into the morning hours and then end southwest to northeast.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet outdoor conditions and strong winds will impact activities. Lightning is also a concern.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Any remaining thunderstorms will come to an end. Clearing. Colder. Breezy, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 30% (before 8 PM) KY ~ 30% (before 9 PM) TN ~ 20% (before 8 PM)
Coverage of precipitation: None to scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South to west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few evening strong thunderstorms. This is questionable. Monitor updates. Storms may reform just ahead of an incoming cold front.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Possible early in the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Small chance of evening thunderstorms. Monitor the radars. Damp ground conditions.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 12:47 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:39 PM
December 2, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58 to 62 TN ~ 58 to 64
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major impacts.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds. I will be monitoring another rain system to the southwest. A few light showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 36 to 40 IL ~ 36 to 40 KY ~ 38 to 42 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest and north at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? I will be monitoring rain chances. Wet roadways possible. Temperatures should remain above freezing.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major concerns.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 1:53 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 2:11 PM
December 3, 2018
Monday forecast: Cloudy. Showers possible. I am monitoring another cold front that should arrive Monday. If so, rain would again become widespread. Active pattern underway.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 52 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts. Some rain showers could make for damp conditions.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Possibly some wet conditions.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Rain may mix with snow or sleet.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 32 to 35 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 28 to 32
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Rain could mix with snow and sleet.
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? At this time, it appears accumulating snow would be unlikely.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case the rain coverage increases. It is possible that evening activities will be fine.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain showers could make for damp conditions for those who have to be outside. Chilly temperatures will also make it uncomfortable when combined with the rain.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 2:57 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:43 PM
December 4, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~35 to 40 KY ~ 36 to 42 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 24 to 28 IL ~ 24 to 28 KY ~ 24 to 28 TN ~ 24 to 28
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 18 to 24
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 4:00 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:17 PM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Wind forecast
Today through Monday: No accumulating wintry precipitation anticipated.
I am watching Monday night/Tuesday. There could be a mix of rain and sleet developing. For now, this does not appear to be anything of consequence.
I am monitoring December 7th through the 9th for another precipitation event.
The Weather Observatory will be holding two open houses for adults and children. The open house will be Saturday, December 1st.
I am planning on having the open house Saturday morning/Saturday afternoon. There could be some strong thunderstorms during the PM hours, but the confidence in that happening is not all that great. Thus, we will move forward with the open house.
Class of 1988 (Massac County High School). I will be having a special open house for you on Friday, November 30th (the night before the other open house)
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
The main rain event arrives Friday into Saturday morning. A widespread one-inch rain event is anticipated. There could be pockets of higher totals. This is especially true if precipitation trains over the same area.
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Friday afternoon: No severe thunderstorms. There could be some scattered lightning during the day on Friday.
Friday night through Saturday night: Monitor updates. An incoming storm system should bring thunderstorms to the region. Some of the storms could produce strong winds. There is a risk of a few severe thunderstorms Friday night along the Missouri/Arkansas border. Lesser risk over the rest of the region. The main concern would be damaging wind gusts.
I am closely monitoring late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon for additional thunderstorm development. Development is not a sure bet, yet. There remain questions about there being enough lift to support thunderstorm development.
We do have several ingredients coming together for severe weather. Without a trigger, however, storms won’t form.
I would suggest you monitor weather updates from late morning into the afternoon hours. If thunderstorms do develop, they could certainly be severe.
The main concern would be damaging winds and tornadoes. There is plenty of shear with this system.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
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- Milder weather is arriving.
- Rain chances are increasing.
- A few thunderstorms possible Friday & Friday night.
- Severe storms on Saturday?
- Colder by Sunday into next week.
- Storm system to monitor around December 7th through the 9th.
Sorry for the late update. I wanted to look over all of the morning data before posting the forecast.
There remain questions about what time the rain exits during Saturday morning and then redevelopment of thunderstorms later in the day.
This morning, temperatures are a bit milder than recent days. Here are the 11 AM temperatures.
Temperatures over the coming days will become even warmer. Three cheers for warmer air. Of course, we will pay for it. Clouds and rain will be with us over the next 48 hours.
Today’s highs
Tonight’s low
Friday highs
Friday night lows
I am planning on having the open house Saturday morning/Saturday afternoon. There could be some strong thunderstorms during the PM hours, but the confidence in that happening is not all that great. Thus, we will move forward with the open house.
Over the coming days, the big weather story will be the rain and the warmer temperatures.
It will still be cool today, but the warmer weather is poised to push into the region tonight.
As a matter of fact, temperatures will actually rise tonight! The lows will be early in the evening. This is because of an incoming warm front that will move northward across the region.
Here is the temperature animation from the NAM model.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner of the graphic. Click to enlarge.
Showers will accompany the warm front. Perhaps isolated lightning. Rain totals today into tonight will be fairly light. I am anticipating totals to be less than 0.25″.
Friday will be milder with breezy conditions. A few showers and thunderstorms will dot the area. No severe weather to worry about during the day.
Friday night will deliver widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could produce moderate rain. There is a risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms. This would mainly be along the Missouri and Arkansas border. Western Tennessee, as well.
The main concern will be damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out. There will be no shortage of wind shear.
Winds will become strong and gusty Friday night into Saturday. Gusts above 40 mph will be possible. These are gradient winds. Gradient winds occur because of rapidly falling or rising barometric pressure readings.
I know many of you have outdoor plans on Saturday.
The rain will be on the way out fairly early in the day. It will end from southwest to northeast. That means southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky will hold onto rain longer than say southeast Missouri.
Plan on rain showers Saturday morning and then hope for the best. It is possible the rain exits in time for the morning parades.
Here is the NAM 3K model guidance future-cast radar. Remember, this is a model. It won’t be exact. Take the general idea from it.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner of the graphic. Click to enlarge.
The next concern will be severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. This is an interesting set-up.
We should see clearing behind the morning precipitation. We call this a dry slot. The sun is likely to make an appearance in the dry slot. This would, in turn, help the atmosphere heat up. This would raise CAPE numbers. CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into.
Almost all of the ingredients are coming together for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Except for one. The one missing ingredient is lift. The best dynamics will have moved away from our region when the cold front arrives.
The best wind fields will be to our east.
This leaves a major question mark for the Saturday afternoon forecast. Will there or won’t there be severe thunderstorms.
With so many ingredients coming together for severe weather, we can’t just ignore them because there isn’t a lot of lift.
If thunderstorms develop Saturday afternoon then they would likely be severe with damaging winds and even tornadoes. The risk is small, but certainly not zero.
My recommendation is for everyone to monitor the latest forecasts, watches, and possible warnings as we move through Saturday afternoon.
LOW confidence in the Saturday afternoon forecast.
Let me show you some examples of the Saturday afternoon/evening severe weather ingredients.
CAPE. CAPE is energy for thunderstorms to tap into.
These are sufficient numbers for severe thunderstorm development.
This is CAPE combined with the wind direction at different levels of the atmosphere. There is turning in the atmosphere. We call that wind shear.
Lifted Index spikes over southern Illinois. This is another signal for severe thunderstorms. These are impressive numbers for late November/December.
Dew points are marginal. I like to see 58+ degree dew points when forecasting severe thunderstorms.
South and southwest winds will gust above 30 mph Saturday afternoon. This would help with low-level shear (shear is turning of air).
Lapse rates are high. This is how quickly temperatures fall as you travel upward in the atmosphere. Steep lapse rates are an ingredient for severe thunderstorms. These are some steep rates.
850 MB winds. These are winds at about 5000′. The highest 850 mb winds will occur Saturday morning. These numbers are lower, but still sufficient for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Radar at 6 PM. This is the NAM model.
It does attempt to pop some storms along the cold front. You can see a few near St Louis and then south of there. Coverage is a big question mark. I am not overly confident in the re-development of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon.
EHI. Helicity. There index represents turning in the atmosphere.
Bottom line, monitor updates.
Another storm system may bring precipitation to the region late next week. Snow? Rain? Possible. The storm track will be key. Some models take it south of our region. Too soon for details. Just something I have been monitoring.
GFS model for next Friday night. Blue is snow. Pink is ice. Green is rain. Red and yellow are heavy rain.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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Fall Outlook!
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November temperature and precipitation outlook
November temperature outlook
November precipitation outlook
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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 670
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
- Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
- Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
