Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 27th, 28th, 29th, and 30th 2019: WeatherTalk update. The password is not the same as your WeatherTalk account. Email me if need be. beaudodson@usawx.com

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    1. Go to storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, & satellite
    2. Go to today’s forecast
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    8. Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature & precipitation graphics
    9. Go to the autumn outlook.
    10. Go to the winter outlook,
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    13. County maps. I made a page with county maps. Some of you requested this.

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

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Quick Glance

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Your seven-day outlook.

 

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Wednesday through Friday

  1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is possible on Friday and Friday night.
  2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  Yes.   No
    * The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
  4.  Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? No.  There could be a brief period of sleet or snow Thursday morning.  For now, I have the precip arriving a bit later in the day.
  5.  Will wind chill values drop below 10 degrees?  No.

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Saturday through Tuesday

  1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  On Saturday/Saturday night.
  2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor:  I am monitoring Saturday and Saturday night.  Severe storms are possible.  There remain questions about instability.
  3. * The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible.  Locally heavy rain along an incoming cold front this coming weekend.  Rain totals could top 2.0″.
  5. Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast?  No.  
  6. Will wind chill values drop below 10 degrees? No.

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County Maps: Click Here

Have there been any significant changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No.  I am monitoring the timing of precipitation on Thursday.  Questionable, at this point.

I have the showers arriving during the PM hours.  There is a lower-end chance that it arrives a bit sooner.

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What changes might occur in the forecast?

The forecast on Saturday may need adjusting.  Mainly concerning the threat of severe weather.

 

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

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November 27, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Strong and gusty winds.  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 10%         TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°    SE MO 48° to 52°    South IL 48° to 52°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 50° to 52°     NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West at 20 to 40 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Strong and gusty winds.
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  It will be windy.
UV Index:  3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%         TN ~ 10%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 32° to 34°    SE MO 30° to 34°    South IL 30° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34°    West KY 30° to 34°    NW TN 32° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:  North and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunset: 4:38  PM
Moonrise: 7:44 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 5:46 PM

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November 28, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Intervals of clouds.  Rain showers developing over southeast Missouri (mainly during the afternoon).
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 90%     IL ~ 60%      KY ~ 60%         TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45°    SE MO 38° to 44°    South IL 38° to 44°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42°    West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required:  Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.  There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor radars during the afternoon.
UV Index:  2 Low
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy.  A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%      KY ~ 30%         TN ~ 30%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 32° to 34°    South IL 32° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34°    West KY 34° to 38°    NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.  There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 4:38  PM
Moonrise: 8:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 6:36 PM

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November 29, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  Chances are greater over southeast Missouri vs the eastern part of western Kentucky
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%      KY ~ 60% (except in the Pennyrile area where it will be 40%)         TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54°    SE MO 45° to 50°    South IL 46° to 50°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52°    West KY 48° to 52°     NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.  There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:  1 Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Rain likely.  A thunderstorm is possible.  Steady or rising temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 70%      KY ~ 70%         TN ~ 70%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44°    SE MO 40° to 45°    South IL 40° to 45°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 40° to 45°    NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:   Southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.  There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 4:38  PM
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 7:32 PM

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November 30, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Cloudy.  Windy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Windy.  Monitor the chance of intense thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 80%     IL ~ 80%      KY ~ 70%         TN ~ 70%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°    SE MO 62° to 64°    South IL 60° to 65°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65°    West KY 64° to 66°    NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 15 to 35 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Locally heavy rain.  Lightning.  Strong winds.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.  There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:  1 Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Rain ending west to east overnight.  Windy.  Turning colder late.  High winds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%      IL ~ 60%      KY ~ 70%         TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44°    SE MO 34° to 38°    South IL  34° to 38°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42°    West KY 38° to 42°    NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:  Southwest becoming west/northwest at 20 to 40 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Rain ending.  Wet roadways early.  Strong and gusty winds.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.  There is a 34 percent increase in the risk of a fatal crash when precipitation is falling.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 4:37  PM
Moonrise: 10:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:29 PM

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December 1, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Colder.  Windy.  A few rain or snow showers towards Mt Vernon and Evansville.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 30%      KY ~ 30%         TN ~ 10%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46°    SE MO 40° to 45°    South IL 40° to 45°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 40° to 45°    NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over our northern counties.  Scattered over our northeastern counties.  That would be mainly northern portions of southern Illinois and along the KY/IN border.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong and gusty wind.
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Monitor updates.
UV Index:  2 Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Breezy.  Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%         TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32°    SE MO 26° to 30°    South IL  26° to 30°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 30°    West KY 28° to 30°    NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:   Northwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37  PM
Moonrise: 11:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:29 PM

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December 2, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%         TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46°    SE MO 40° to 45°    South IL 40° to 45°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 40° to 45°    NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
UV Index:  2 Low
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
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Monday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%         TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 30°    SE MO 24° to 28°    South IL  24° to 28°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28°    West KY 24° to 28°    NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed:   North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37  PM
Moonrise: 11:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:26 PM

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December 3, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast:   Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%         TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46°    SE MO 40° to 45°    South IL 40° to 45°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45°    West KY 40° to 45°    NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
What action is required:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
UV Index:  2 Low
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%      IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%         TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36°    SE MO 28° to 34°    South IL  28° to 34°    Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 34°    West KY 28° to 34°    NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed:   North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37  PM
Moonrise: 12:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:24 PM

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Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Click to enlarge

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Wind forecast

 

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Current conditions.

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School Bus Stop Forecast

No school on Wednesday.

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  1.  More rain Thursday afternoon, Friday, and Saturday.
  2.  Some locally heavy rain is possible on Friday and Saturday.

 

Agriculture Forecast
Spray forecast will return next spring.

I will introduce a winter graphic soon for temperatures and livestock.

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Precipitation Dates.

These are dates that may have precipitation.  Monitor the trends in the forecast.

Anything past day seven is very low confidence.  Do not make plans based on this forecast.

Smaller icons mean that confidence in precipitation occurring is low or it will be light.

Larger icons mean a higher chance of precipitation occurring.

The icon can mean rain or snow.

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Anything past day seven is very low confidence.  Do not make plans based on this forecast.

The icon can mean rain or snow.


Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.



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Wednesday through next Thursday:  There is a chance of strong thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

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Severe Weather Risk Graphic (this is not for regular sub-severe thunderstorms.  This graphic is for severe thunderstorms)

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.

A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.

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  1.  Windy today.
  2.  Colder.
  3.  Rain chances return on Thursday afternoon and night.  Scattered showers.
  4.  Widespread rain develops on Friday into Saturday.
  5.   I am monitoring the chance of a few strong thunderstorms on Saturday.

 

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Weather
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Advice:

Monitor updates in case we have intense thunderstorms on Saturday.

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Weather Forecast Analysis.

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I hope everyone has a nice Thanksgiving and holiday weekend.

I will be with the family on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

I may do a special update on Friday night.  This will depend on Saturday’s forecast.   If severe weather appears to be a concern then there will be an update.

I will be updating on Saturday if severe weather develops.

A strong cold front has been pushing through the region over the past 12 hours.

This front produced showers and thunderstorms yesterday and last night.  A few of those storms produced strong wind gusts.

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts have topped 40 mph overnight.  Those winds are going to continue today.  These winds are in response to the deep area of low pressure passing through the Great Lakes.  There is a blizzard on the northwest side of this system.

Our region will have some clouds today.  Perhaps a shower or two over our northeast counties (that would be closer to Evansville).

It will be colder today through Friday.

Clouds will already be increasing on Thursday.  That will lead to our next chance of showers.  Those showers will first arrive over southeast Missouri on Thursday afternoon and then spread eastward.

Rain chances will increase Thursday night.  Widespread rain develops on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday.

Some of the rain could be heavy.

We will briefly warm-up on Friday night and Saturday.  That will occur as strong and gusty south winds develop.

A few thunderstorms are possible Friday night and Saturday, as well.

There remain questions about the intensity of thunderstorms on Saturday.  This is going to be another deep area of low pressure.  A blizzard is possible on the northwest side of the system.

Colder air will filter into the region on Saturday night and Sunday.  There could even be a rain or snow shower on Sunday.

Here is that system on the GFS model.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animation to expand it.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics.  Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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NAM Model

Click models to enlarge

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NAM 3K

GFS model

Time-stamp upper left.

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Here are the WPC forecast graphics for the six to ten and eight to fourteen-day period.  This is for precipitation and temperatures.

Darker colors equal a higher chance of it happening.  Deep red means a high chance that temperatures will be above normal.  Dark blue means a high chance that temperatures will be below normal.

The light green colors represent a lower end chance of above-normal rainfall.  Dark green means a high chance of precipitation being above normal.

The yellow/orange color means a high chance that precipitation will be below normal.

The 6 to 10-day outlook.

Precipitation

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Temperatures

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And the 8 to 14-day outlook.

Precipitation

 

Temperatures

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These maps below update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long-range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.



Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I hire BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

The long-range video does cover our region.

There may be some differences in the videos vs my forecast thoughts. Keep that in mind.

Videos will be in the app first.  Check your WeatherTalk app.  Click video tab.  You can also log into the www.weathertalk.com website to view videos.  

Fresh videos are posted between 8 and 9 am.

Ohio Valley video

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This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.

Videos will be in the app first.  Check your WeatherTalk app.  Click video tab.  You can also log into the www.weathertalk.com website to view videos.  

Fresh videos are posted between 8 and 9 am.

Long Range VIdeo

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Videos are posted each morning.  The next video will be posted between 8 AM and 9 AM on Wednesday

Videos will be in the app first.  Check your WeatherTalk app.  Click video tab.  You can also log into the www.weathertalk.com website to view videos.  

Fresh videos are posted between 8 and 9 am.

The Missouri Valley Forecast Vide0

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Key Points:  This was written by the BAMwx team.  I don’t edit it.

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This will return on Monday

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 51 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″

Yellow and orange are above average. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue is below average. Green to purple is much below average.

This outlook covers November 26th through December 2nd

Click on the image to expand it.

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 49 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 31 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 4th through December 10th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 44  degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 27 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.90″ to 2.20″

This outlook covers December 11th through December 24th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.



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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Fall Outlook

September, October, and November Temperature outlook

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November

Click on the image to expand it.

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November Pecipitation Outlook

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December

Click on the image to expand it.

January

February

March

 



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BAMwx has released its winter forecast.  Keep in mind, what you really want to know is not covered in a general winter outlook.  What you want to know is how much snow or ice will fall.  That is not possible to predict.

The best long-range forecasters can do is to tell you above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

This initial winter outlook indicates odds favor above-normal temperatures when everything is averaged out from November into March.  That does not mean we won’t have cold weather.  It just means when you average all of those months together we could end up above normal.

They indicate above-normal snowfall, as well.

Winter analogs.  BAMwx found years that have a pattern similar to what we are currently experiencing.  Those are called analogs.  We can compare previous years with the present.

Their analogs indicate colder than normal across portions of the central and northern United States.  They indicate above normal temperatures along the West Coast south and east into Texas.

Blue and purple are below normal (bright green, as well).  Yellow and orange are above normal.

Winter Temperature Outlook

Winter Precipitation

Click image to enlarge

Click image to enlarge.

Looking back at last year.  None of the models handled last year all that well.

Upper air pattern.

Here is the BAMwx temperature forecast.  This covers all of winter.  They have us in the above normal temperature zone.  Near normal just to our north.  For now, they have this marked as a low confidence forecast.

Additional winter forecasts will be posted over the next couple of months.  This is the preliminary outlook.



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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.
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Clear Skies Ahead Weather Podcast.  From the AMS  Click here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 722
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Our Guest WeatherBrain is the director of the video and social media content for the MyRadar App.  Mike Linden, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Joining us as Guest Panelist is former TV meteorologist and current NWS employee Brian Neudorff.   Welcome back, Brian!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • NWS app?
  • Pre-Thanksgiving storm?
  • Tropical wave east of Leeward Islands
  • National Weather Round-Up
  • and more!

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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

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Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects? Not a subscriber? Becoming one at www.weathertalk.com

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

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