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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook has been updated. The next update will be next Wednesday
November 26, 2016
Saturday Night: We should have mostly clear sky conditions. Perhaps some evening clouds. Chilly. Fog possible. If temperatures fall below freezing then watch for slick spots (because of the fog/mist freezing on surfaces). There could be some increase in high clouds after 3 am.
What impact is expected? Watch for fog. Slick spots on bridges are possible when fog occurs with below freezing temperatures. Keep that in mind as we move through the winter months.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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November 27, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny early. Increasing high clouds as the day wears on. A system well to our southwest will start to move northeast into our region. Showers should hold off until Sunday night. Small chance for a light shower near Poplar Bluff before sunset.
What impact is expected? Perhaps morning fog, otherwise none..
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. Small chance over southeast Missouri late in the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Becoming cloudy. Showers developing. Increasing coverage overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 7-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Rain likely. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Gusty winds possible. Some moderate to heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast at 10-20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 90%. IL ~ 90%. KY ~ 90% . TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: o-1
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Breezy. Mild. Rain. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Rain tapering late Monday night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Well above normal temperatures. Small chance for a remaining shower.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if anything at all). Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers should have ended.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. I will be monitoring another system passing near our region. Some of the guidance spreads rain back into the area.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. I will again monitor the system passing near our region.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32 to 36 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Patchy fog
- Above normal temperatures on Sunday
- Rain by Sunday night into Monday night
- Tuesday?
- Winter storm forecast has been updated on the WeatherTalk page
We should have a cool night ahead of us. Sunday morning lows will dip into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. I can’t rule out patchy fog. Remember, when fog occurs with below freezing temperatures you can have a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Keep that in mind as we move into the winter months.
A storm system will develop over the central United States on Sunday into Monday. A deep area of low pressure will develop well to our west and northwest. This low will push northeast.
Another low or wave will develop to our southwest on Monday and push northeast and east into the Tennessee Valley.
All of this combined will equal increasing rain chances by Sunday night into Monday morning. Locally heavy downpours are possible on Monday late morning into the afternoon hours.
Here are the rainfall probabilities
At this time, the severe weather threat appears minimal. It is not a zero risk. I will be monitoring a potential squall line on Monday afternoon. This line of storms should stay just to our south or perhaps clip portions of the Missouri Bootheel, southern Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
The greater risk for severe weather may remain just to our south. Monitor updates, as always. I have posted the severe weather outlook further down in the blog. Scroll down to the severe weather outlook.
Here is the analog forecast for severe storms. Some potential to our south.
Tuesday should be breezy and mild. Perhaps a few showers. It is possible that Tuesday will remain dry. Lower confidence on that subject.
Questions arise as to how Wednesday into Thursday will unfold. Another system may develop well to our south and move northeast. Typically this would be a winter storm track for our region. It appears it will be too mild for snow or ice.
It appears the system may clip our eastern and southern counties. With that said, some of the guidance shifts the system so far southeast that we receive no precipitation. That is a decent possibility.
Let’s take a look at some graphics.
Here is how the NAM guidance handles our next rain maker.
The colors represent rain and thunderstorms. The bright yellow, orange, and red colors are moderate to heavy rain. The green colors represent general rain.
This first image is for 6 pm on Sunday. You can see showers to our west. Perhaps spreading into portions of our region as early as the evening hours. Better chances as we move through the night.
This next image is for 12 am on Monday. Rain has spread into our region.
This next image is for 6 am on Monday. Note the new area of showers developing to our southwest. That is the second wave or low moving along the front.
This will enhance our rainfall on Monday late morning into the evening hours.
This next image is for 12 pm on Monday. The rain is increasing in intensity.
This next graphic is for 6 pm on Monday. See the squall line to our south? That could produce some severe weather. As long as it stays to our south then we should avoid severe storms. This will need to be monitored.
Here is how the GFS handles the second system on Wednesday/Wednesday night. It misses us to the south. Medium confidence that this will be accurate. We still have a few days to monitor it.
WINTER STORM UPDATE:
I have updated the winter storm outlook. The second of the season. The winter storm outlook will be posted twice a week.
You can view the forecast by following these instructions. Remember, the winter storm outlook is behind the paywall. It is $3 a month. A typical months worth of expenses is $700.00 or more. This helps offset the costs.
To sign up for the text messages you can visit www.beaudodsonweather.com
Find me on Twitter, as well!
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain chances increase late Sunday night into Monday night/Tuesday. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. At this time, flash flooding appears unlikely. Monitor updates, as always.
Scale is on the right side of the image. I zoomed in on our region. This is the official NOAA outlook.
Click images to enlarge.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS model rainfall totals for the Sunday night through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
GEM model rainfall totals for the Sunday night through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
One more, for good measure. The NAM model guidance
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Temperature Outlook
Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night through Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday through Tuesday: A storm system will bring rain to our region. Instability levels appear low. Wind shear will be high. I can’t rule out some thunderstorms with gusty winds. The severe weather risk is not zero. Monitor updates, as always.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley for strong storms on Monday and Monday night.
The dark green and yellow areas are under a marginal and slight risk for severe weather. You can see it just barely touches the Missouri Bootheel. This graphic could change over the coming days. Let’s keep an eye on it.
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No significant adjustments.
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Fog during the overnight hours into the morning hours. Remember, when temperatures fall below freezing with fog present, patchy slick spots can occur on roadways..
Some thunderstorms are possible on Monday and Monday night. I will be monitoring a potential squall line that should develop to our south. It could clip our area. Monitor updates, as always.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
