Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 26th to December 1st

Current risk:  NONE

Current confidence level: High confidence.

Comments:    

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.     

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.    

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO. 

6. Will the temperature fall below 20 degrees?  LOW RISK.  Temperatures will drop into the 20s over the coming nights, but should remain above 20 degrees.  It is possible that next week will bring colder temperatures.  Some teens are possible.

7. Is the wind chill forecast to drop below ten degrees?  NO.

8.  Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast?  MONITOR.  A rain/snow mix is possible on Saturday morning.  Another chance on Sunday night.  Then, a chance of snow on Monday night and Tuesday. 

At this time, it appears that accumulating snow is unlikely through Sunday night.  I can’t completely rule out a dusting over northern portions of southern Illinois on Saturday morning before temperatures rise above freezing.

There may be a higher chance of a sticking snow on Monday night and Tuesday.  That system will need to be monitored.  It is still several days away and the track is uncertain.

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Here is the short-range concern meter.

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Here is the extended concern meter.

No severe weather concerns.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast.

No graphic today
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This afternoon

No graphic today

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Forecast discussion

•   Cool to chilly weather into next week.
•   A series of systems will bring rain and snow back to the region Friday night into next week.
•   The highest chance of accumulating snow will be on Monday night and Tuesday.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

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Today  through Friday

Good morning, everyone.   I hope you have a nice Thanksgiving.

No weather concerns today through Friday.  It will be dry and chilly.  Below-average temperatures.

There will be some gusty winds today.  Especially over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  That will make it feel a bit cooler.

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Friday night through Tuesday

Several systems will bring precipitation to the region from Friday night into Tuesday.   Rain totals have come down a bit with these systems.

You can see the series of precipitation events in this computer model animation.  Green is rain.  Blue is snow.  Don’t get too caught up in the placement of those at this point.

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It could be cold enough for a wintry mix late Friday night and Saturday morning.  At this time, it appears that it will be too warm to produce accumulating snow or sleet.  It will need to be monitored.

If the precipitation arrives a bit earlier, before temperatures rise above freezing, then there could be a brief dusting of snow and sleet.  The chance of that would be a bit higher over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois.  For now, it looks just a bit too warm for concerns.

Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to rise above freezing area-wide.

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, then monitor updated forecasts and plan on some wet conditions.

Numerous showers will overspread the region from west to east on Saturday.  Chances will be a bit higher as you travel west on Saturday, but with time the rain will overspread the entire region (see graphics below).

Let’s look at the latest rainfall outlook.  These numbers did come down a bit.

Precipitation totals through next Tuesday

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.

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Let’s break down the rainfall probabilities.  What is the % chance of rain and/or snow for each 12 hour period.

Friday 6 PM to Saturday 6 AM

Saturday 6 AM to Saturday 6 PM

Saturday 6 PM to Sunday 6 AM

Sunday 6 AM to Sunday 6 PM

Sunday 6 PM to Monday 6 AM

Monday 6 AM to Monday 6 PM

Monday 6 PM to Tuesday 6 AM

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Another system will brush our region on Monday night and Tuesday.  This will be a southern system and it will be cold enough for snow.

The question is how far north does that system drift?

If it stays farther south then any snow would be light and/or miss our region.  If it pushes a bit farther north, then snow chances will increase.

Since this is a southern system, the chance of snow will be higher across the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

It is too early to know how significant this system will be.  Accumulating snow is possible.

Here is that system on The EC model

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Here is that system on the Canadian model

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Here is that system on the GFS model

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As you can see, there are different strengths of the system being portrayed in the model guidance.  Some are a bit heavier than others.

It is just a bit too soon to know the outcome.  Monitor updates.

It will be cold early next week.  As a matter of fact, highs on some days will remain the 30s!

Monday highs

Tuesday highs

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model 

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
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I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.

Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson

Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live.  I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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