Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 26, 2024: Here comes the bitterly cold air. A few showers Wednesday and Wednesday night.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  NO.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees?  YES.   Temperatures will drop below freezing Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night.  I will monitor next Tuesday and Wednesday.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  YES.  I am monitoring wind chill values Thursday night into next week.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  SMALL CHANCE.  I am watching a system Saturday.  A low-end chance of accumulating snow.  I will keep an eye on it.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 4.  Low risk.
Tuesday  night: 4.  Low risk.
Wednesday: 3.  Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 4.  Low risk

Fire Weather Discussion

Poor dispersion is expected today due to light winds as high pressure settles overhead. RH values will be significantly lower than yesterday dropping near or below 30 percent in the afternoon. Rain showers are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon as a strong cold front approaches and moves through by Thursday morning.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video

Long Range Video

 

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Tuesday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°

Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°

Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°

Winds will be from this direction:  Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:24 AM
Moonset:  2:05 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Wednesday Forecast:  Increasing clouds. A chance of mainly afternoon showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 pm
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°

Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No , but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Cloudy.  Showers likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%

Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 35° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~  36° to 40°

Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Moonrise: 3:22 AM
Moonset:  2:27 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy early.  Becoming partly sunny.  A slight chance of rain early in the day.  Tapering rain chances through the day.  Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation:   Isolated (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 9 AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°

Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 43° to 46°

Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to  20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°

Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:21 AM
Moonset:  2:52 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°

Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°

Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: A few clouds.  Otherwise, cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~  18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 22° to 25°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 22°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°

Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 5:23 AM
Moonset:  3:22 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Cold. A chance of flurries or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°

Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 42°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°

Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Cold wind chill values.  I will monitor the chance of snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Cold.  A chance of flurries or snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~  18° to 22°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 29° to 22°
Far western Kentucky ~ 22° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 22° to 25°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 22° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 24° to 26°

Winds will be from this direction:  North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chill values.  I will monitor the chance of snow showers.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Moonrise: 6:25 AM
Moonset:  3:58 PM
The phase of the moon:  New

 

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.    Colder air has arrived.  Bitterly cold air this weekend into next week.  Perhaps another shot of reinforcing cold air next week, as well.  It may stay chill for an extended period of time.
    2.    Numerous showers Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.  Ending Thursday morning.  The system is trending weaker and faster.  Thus, most of Thanksgiving Day may end up dry.  Rainfall totals will be light.
    3.    I will keep an eye on a light snow system Saturday and Sunday.

 

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Happy Thanksgiving week.   I hope you and your family have a wonderful holiday week.

Good morning, everyone!

We are waking up to a chilly morning across the region.  The rain has moved on off to the east.

We will have partly to mostly sunny sky conditions today.   Seasonal temperatures in the 50s.  Not weather concerns today or tonight.

A cold front will push into the region Wednesday.

This system has been trending faster and weaker for a few days now.  Confidence in the overall forecast is high.

A few showers will develop Wednesday morning, but increasing coverage during the afternoon and evening hours.  Mostly light showers.

The rain chances will peak Wednesday night and then wane on Thursday.

Rainfall totals will be low across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.  Most likely in the 0.00″ to 0.10″ range.  Rain totals over the rest of the region will range from 0.05″ to 0.25″.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall outlook.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Notice portions of southeast Missouri end up with very little rainfall.  Butler County is in the 0.00″ to 0.05″ range.

The goods news is that we won’t see severe weather from this event.  The cooler temperatures are helping our cause.

Thursday will feature chilly temperatures.  Gusty winds.  Some lingering clouds.  Perhaps an early morning shower.

Bitterly cold air pours into the region late Thursday into next week.

Some mornings will experience lows in the teens.  Highs only in the 30s.  Brrr brrr brrr.

This is going to feel even colder, since it has been an extremely mild autumn.

This cold wave will be harsh on those who must work outdoors, the homeless commuities, and pets/livestock.  A prolonged period of below average temperatures.

Don’t forget our outdoor friends.

Wind chill values will dip into the teens and single digits later this week/weekend.  Wind chill is what the body feels.

Kids at the bus stop next week will need to be bundled up.  It will be cold.

Let’s look at some of those overnight lows

This Friday morning

 

Saturday

 

Sunday morning

 

Here is another view of temperatures.  I chose Paducah as a center point.

This is from the EC model

It may remain chilly through much of next week.

 

Blend of model temperatures

A fast moving clipper system will bring increasing clouds to the region Saturday.

A few snow flurries or snow showers will accompany the clipper.

It may be too warm for snow to accumulate.  Highs are expected to range from the middle 30s to around 40 degrees.

For now, this appears to be a novelty light event.  There is a layer of dry air aloft.  That could also eat into the snow and keep it from reaching the ground.  Or, at least several hours of it not reaching the ground.

I will keep an eye on it.

Any moisture on roadways Saturday night could freeze (if the winds don’t dry the surface).

Let me show you a few models.  If the ground and air temperatures were cold enough, then this is what models are showing for accumulation (again, for now I don’t expect accumulation).

The GEFS ensembles.  What is the probability of one inch of snow?

The EC ensembles.  What is the probability of one inch of snow?

 

Let’s look at some future-cast radars.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

The GFS American model. This is showing you Wednesday’s rain event and Saturday’s snow shower event.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

 

The EC European model.  This is showing you Wednesday’s rain event

Saturday’s snow flurry/shower event

I will keep an eye on Saturday.

Have a great day.


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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