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November 26, 2018
Monday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Windy, at times. A snow flurry of light sprinkle possible. Well below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 38 to 42
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Patchy light flurries or sprinkles.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? A flurry or snow shower will be possible, especially over southern Illinois and northern parts of western Kentucky.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 15 to 25 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Cold temperatures will not make for a nice day outside.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing sky conditions. Well below normal temperatures. Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 20 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 22 to 24 TN ~ 23 to 26
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? None
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low wind chill values will make it uncomfortable. Monitor patchy morning fog. Remember, during the cold season we can have fog that causes patchy ice spots on bridges and overpasses.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Low wind chill values will make it uncomfortable.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 8:17 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:08 AM
November 27, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly. Well below normal temperatures. Perhaps some patchy morning fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 33 to 36 IL ~ 33 to 36 KY ~ 33 to 36 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor patchy morning fog. Remember, during the cold season we can have fog that causes patchy ice spots on bridges and overpasses.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? It will be uncomfortable outside because of the cold temperatures.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 16 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 18 to 24 TN ~ 22 to 24
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Low temperatures will make it feel uncomfortable.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 9:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:02 AM
November 28, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold. Well below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Once again, cold temperatures will make it uncomfortable.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increasing clouds overnight. Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 30 IL ~ 26 to 30 KY ~ 26 to 32 TN ~ 28 to 32
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 10:33 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:49 AM
November 29, 2018
Thursday forecast: Quite a few clouds. Not as cold. A weak and fast-moving system will push across the area. I can’t rule out a light shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 46 to 50 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 48 to 52
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Possibly some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? A few light showers could occur. It won’t wash out your outdoor activities, but it could interfere with them.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South to southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? A few rain showers could cause damp conditions.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 11:41 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:29 PM
November 30, 2018
Friday forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A shower possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 54 to 56 IL ~ 54 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions if showers develop. Still some questions on the timing of our next rain system.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 46 to 48 TN ~ 46 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Maybe
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, not yet. I would monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain showers could be an issue.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Last Quarter
Moonset: 1:06 PM
December 1, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 58t o 64 TN ~ 60 to 65
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Is flooding anticipated? Not at this time.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms. Monitor this part of the forecast.
Is severe weather expected? Low risk. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and consider a plan B.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet outdoor conditions could be an issue. I am monitoring the risk of lightning, as well.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves across the area.
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (esp early)
Is flooding anticipated? Unlikely
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South to west at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms. Monitor this part of the forecast.
Is severe weather expected? Possible. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes, early.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue for those outside. I will monitor the lightning risk, as well. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 12:47 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:39 PM
December 2, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 54
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 36 to 44
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major impacts.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor fog conditions. Lower visibility if fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major concerns.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 1:53 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 2:11 PM
December 3, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly to mostlyl sunny. A slight chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Perhaps some patchy wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Unlikely
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Unlikely
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Unlikely
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain showers could make for damp conditions for those who have to be outside.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 2:57 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:43 PM
December 4, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~43 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 38 to 44
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 4:00 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:17 PM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Today through next Saturday: I am not anticipating any accumulating snow through Saturday.
A snow flurry or snow shower will be possible today. This would mainly be over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. No impacts anticipated.
The Weather Observatory will be holding two open houses for adults and children. Weather permitting, the open house will be Saturday, December 1st.
Class of 1988 (Massac County High School). I will be having a special open house for you on Friday, November 30th (the night before the other open house)
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
A light rain event is possible Thursday into Friday morning. Rain totals will be less than 0.20″.
A stronger system is forecast to arrive Friday night into Saturday night. This system could bring some heavy downpours.
Here is the latest seven day WPC rainfall forecast. You can see that a widespread one to three-inch rain event is forecast.
It is still a bit early for certainties on how widespread the larger totals will be. These totals could cause a sharp rise in creeks.
Click image to enlarge.
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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Friday afternoon: No severe thunderstorms.
Friday night through Saturday night: Monitor updates. An incoming storm system could bring thunderstorms to the region. I can’t rule out strong thunderstorms, but it is a bit early for certainties. The greater risk of severe weather may remain to our south.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Brrr is the word.
- January temperatures today into Wednesday. Well below normal temperatures.
- A flurry or sprinkle today.
- A light shower possible Thursday into Friday morning (centered on Thursday night).
- A heavier rain event likely Friday night into Saturday night.
It is cold. Once again we have well below normal temperatures blanketing the area. What a crazy month this has been. It has been cold and we had early snow events.
This will likely rank as one of the colder November’s on-record. Certainly, one of the top five coldest for many areas. This comes as no surprise. We have consistently been cold all month. There have only been a hand-full of above normal temperature days.
Windy conditions today will keep wind chill values in the teens and twenties.
12 PM wind forecast map (today)
Click to enlarge
Check out high and low temperatures over the next 48 hours. They will vary a bit, but you get a general idea. Cold. Cold. Cold.
Today
Remember, normal highs in January are in the 40’s. We will be colder than that.
A major blizzard swept across the Midwest yesterday and continues this morning. Parts of northern Illinois received 14+ inches. This was a wind-driven snow with drifts being measured in the feet. It is a snow day for many children. A bonus to their recent holiday vacation.
It was a rare November blizzard warning for some areas.
Our region was spared the snow. We do have some light snow showers and flurries on the radar this morning. I do not anticipate any travel issues locally.
If you are driving northward then you should check the latest travel conditions.
We have several weather makers to monitor this week.
A weak system will bring some clouds and light showers as early as Thursday and Thursday night. Rain totals from that event will be light. No severe weather or snow/ice anticipated.
A much larger system is forecast to take shape Friday night into Saturday night.
It is this system that could bring locally moderate to even heavy rain to our area. Rain totals in excess of one inch appear likely. That would actually be fairly widespread if the charts hold.
There would be pockets of higher totals. We have been talking about this system for about three weeks. It showed up well in the analog charts.
The center of the low will likely stay to our north. That would place us in the warm sector of the system. That would mean a chance of thunderstorms. For now, snow or ice appears unlikely.
There will be higher dewpoints with this event. The event over the last 24 hours only had dew points in the upper 40’s to middle 50’s (for the most part). That was not sufficient for severe thunderstorms.
The weekend event, however, should have dew points well into the 50’s.
Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere. It is one ingredient when it comes to forecasting severe weather. Dew points of 58 and above are normally what I look for when considering a severe weather forecast. The higher the dew point the more likely you will have problems (if other ingredients are available).
It already appears that lightning will be a good bet Friday night and Saturday. Whether we have severe weather is somewhat questionable. I will need to monitor the data.
Certainly, portions of Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi will have concerns for supercells. Tornadoes will be possible down there.
We should dry out by Sunday with only small shower chances remaining.
For now, I do not have any significant snow events in the forecasts.
Let me show you a few graphics.
This first animation is the NAM model guidance. The colors represent precipitation. Green is rain. Blue is snow. Purple is a mix.
This shows you the mid-week event (mainly THU/THU night).
Click to enlarge. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
This next animation is the GFS model guidance. This shows you a series of precipitation events. One Thursday/Thursday night, one Friday into Saturday night, and another around December 4th. Long way out to have much confidence in the third event.
An active pattern in the charts. Precipitation chances every few days.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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This product is for subscribers.
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page CLICK HERE
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Fall Outlook!
These products are for subscribers.
November temperature and precipitation outlook
November temperature outlook
November precipitation outlook
.These products are for subscribers.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 670
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
- Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
- Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
