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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website (under the Daily Weather Summary tab). Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial.
The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab. You will also find the password there. The password will NOT be the one you use to sign into your personal weather talk account.
The winter storm outlook has been updated. The next update will be next Wednesday
November 25, 2016
Friday Night: Cloudy early. Some clearing possible overnight. If clouds clear out then patchy fog could develop. Remember, when temperatures fall below freezing and fog is present, slick spots can occur on bridges.
What impact is expected? Monitoring for fog
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range. (lows will depend on cloud cover)
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: We should have mostly clear sky conditions. Perhaps some evening clouds. Chilly. Fog possible. There could be some increase in high clouds after 3 am.
What impact is expected? Watch for fog. Slick spots on bridges are possible when fog occurs with below freezing temperatures. Keep that in mind as we move through the winter months.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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November 27, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny early. Increasing high clouds as the day wears on. A system well to our southwest will start to move northeast into our region. Showers should hold off until Sunday night. Small chance for a light shower near Poplar Bluff before sunset.
What impact is expected? Perhaps morning fog, otherwise none..
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. Small chance over southeast Missouri late in the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Becoming cloudy. Showers developing. Increasing coverage overnight.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 7-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Rain likely. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Gusty winds possible. Some moderate to heavy downpours possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southeast at 10-20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 90%. IL ~ 90%. KY ~ 90% . TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: o-1
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Breezy. Mild. Rain. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread. Rain tapering late Monday night.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Well above normal temperatures. Small chance for a remaining shower.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (if anything at all). Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 1-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers should have ended.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy. I will be monitoring another system passing near our region. Some of the guidance spreads rain back into the area.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. I will again monitor the system passing near our region.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32 to 36 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West and northwest at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- We should finally see clearing Friday night and Saturday
- Patchy fog
- Rain/storms likely by early next week
- Winter storm forecast has been updated on the WeatherTalk page
Clouds, clouds, and more clouds. The last three days have had plenty of clouds. The good news is that it appears clouds will finally move out of the area by late Friday night into Saturday morning.
If everything goes as planned we should have quite a bit of sunshine on Saturday.
Let’s take a look at the GFS satellite forecast for the next couple of days.
This first map is for Friday’s clouds. The white represents clouds.
This next map is for Saturday. Black moves into our region. That represents sunshine.
Watch what happens on Sunday. Another system approaches our region from the southwest and west. You can see the light white colors moving into our local area. That represents high clouds. Thicker clouds to the southwest.
This next map is for Sunday night. Cloudy.
FOG:
Patchy fog will be possible on Friday night and Saturday night. Remember, slick spots occasionally develop on bridges and overpasses when fog is present and temperatures fall below freezing. Keep that in mind over the coming months.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY:
Sunday will be a day of transition. A new storm system will be winding up to our west and northwest. This system will spread clouds back into the area as early as Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Rain chances will increase Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will remain above freezing with this precipitation event.
Rain should linger into Tuesday. Coverage will become spotty on Tuesday as the bulk of the widespread rain moves off to the east.
Strong winds aloft will cause plenty of wind shear on Monday and Tuesday. Instability, however, will be lacking. In order to have severe weather you need instability. As it stands, it appears some thunderstorms are possible. The severe weather risk is not zero. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Let’s take a look at the PWAT values. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.
You can see that the numbers spike on Monday into Monday night. This is because of the storm system moving into our region and bringing moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Some decent PWAT numbers for late November. That is a signal that some of the rain could be moderate to perhaps heavy.
This graphic is for 12 pm on Monday.
You can see the numbers remain high into Monday night. This is the 6 pm Monday map. Notice the drier air over western Missouri. The drier air will work into our region on Tuesday. This will occur as the cold front passes to our east.
Here is the PWAT anomaly map for Monday. The red colors represent above normal moisture for this time of the year.
Rainfall totals should put a bit of a dent in our drought. A widespread 1″ to 2″ event is forecast. Pockets of higher totals are possible. We still need several inches of rain to break the drought.
The Monday system appears to be speeding up a little bit. At one time it appeared Tuesday would be a wash out, as well. The guidance is now indicating a faster departure time for the rain. I will monitor the guidance over the coming days.
Scattered showers will continue into Tuesday, but not as widespread as Monday and Monday night.
Let’s take a look at the GFS surface maps for the Monday/Tuesday event.
Click maps to enlarge.
This first map is for Monday at 6 am. You can see rain showers have spread into our local area. A deep area of low pressure is situated near the Dakotas and Minnesota. The low is moving northeast.
Another wave of low pressure will form along the front in eastern Texas. This will enhance rainfall totals as we move into Monday afternoon and Monday night.
The colors represent the rainfall totals for the previous six hours. This first map would be 12 am to 6 am on Monday. Scale is on the right side of the page.
This next map is for the 6 am to 12 pm time frame on Monday. The yellow colors represent moderate rain. You can see the second disturbance moving into our region from the southwest. The heavier totals are represented by the yellow colors.
This next map is for 12 pm on Monday through 6 pm on Monday. The colors represent rainfall totals. Some locally heavy rain will be a possibility on Monday.
This next map is for 6 pm on Monday through 12 am on Tuesday
This next map is for 12 am through 6 am on Tuesday. It appears the rain will wind down on Tuesday.
Another system will develop to our south on Tuesday night and Wednesday. I have been carefully monitoring this system for the potential of frozen precipitation in our region. At this time, it appears some precipitation could spread back into the region on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Confidence, however, is low. Let’s continue to monitor that system.
Here is what the GFS shows for the Wednesday system. Low confidence on this one.
You can see the GFS paints some light precipitation in our region. I will discuss this a bit more in the winter storm update over on the WeatherTalk.com page. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab for the link and password.
Speaking of winter!
A new winter storm forecast has been posted on the www.weathertalk.com site. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
The next winter storm update will be posted on Friday. You can still view the previous update by going to this URL and then clicking on the Daily Weather Summary.
The winter storm forecasts are behind the Weather Talk paywall. I usually spend $700.00 or more (per month) to bring you all of this weather information. Data costs and other. The Weather Talk subscriptions start at $3 a month. It is a bargain. You can sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
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The latest drought monitor map and information from NOAA
Western portions of the Ohio Valley received half an inch to an inch of rain, but amounts dropped off to only a couple tenths to the east. Parts of eastern Indiana were the only areas with weekly precipitation near normal. D2-D3 expanded across Kentucky with D1-D2 straddling the Ohio River. D0 spread further into Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Agricultural impacts received by the Kentucky State Climatologist include dry farm ponds, producers feeding hay early, and winter wheat struggling.
The cold front fell apart as it moved across the Southeast, leaving the region with another week of zero precipitation. As reported by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), hundreds (at least 212) new fires have started in the Southeast, with 30 of them classified as large wildfires (100 acres or more), and burn bans were widespread across the region.
Streams were at record and near-record low levels.
Severe agricultural impacts (stock ponds drying up, winter feed being used to keep cattle alive since fall started) were widespread across the South and Southeast.
Significant expansion of D0-D4 occurred across the southeastern States. In the Lower Mississippi Valley, D1-D3 expanded across Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas, and D0-D2 expanded in Missouri.
In Alabama, ponds were drying up in and around Lowndes County, and cattlemen were hauling water and using winter hay to feed cattle since late summer.
As of November 22, Oneonta, Alabama, in the northeast part of the state, has gone 94 consecutive days without measurable precipitation.
In Mississippi, the USDA has received reports of ponds drying up and cattle producers having to feed hay, in some cases already using up their entire hay supply for the winter months.
Rye grass that was planted in the beginning of October has yet to emerge. As described by the Georgia State Climatologist, agricultural impacts due to dry soils in Turner/Tift/Irwin/Worth/Ben Hill/Wicox/Dodge county areas have been just detrimental for peanut and cattle farmers.
In Decatur County, dryland winter forage is not being attempted at this time. If there is no irrigation, the small grains have emerged and died. In Coffee County, unless irrigated, small grains for grazing are naught. In Coweta County, hay is becoming harder to find and even irrigated areas are now suffering due to low water levels in ponds and creeks.
The USDA has received reports of wells going bad and stock ponds drying up in Holmes County, Florida.
According to November 20 USDA reports, 100% of the topsoil moisture and 98% of the subsoil moisture in Alabama was rated short or very short (dry or very dry).
Here is the map. Click images to enlarge.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain chances increase late Sunday night into Monday night/Tuesday. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. At this time, flash flooding appears unlikely. Monitor updates, as always.
Scale is on the right side of the image. I zoomed in on our region. This is the official NOAA outlook.
Click images to enlarge.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS model rainfall totals for the Sunday night through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
GEM model rainfall totals for the Sunday night through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
Temperature Outlook
Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday night through Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday through Tuesday: A storm system will bring rain to our region. Instability levels appear low. Wind shear will be high. I can’t rule out some thunderstorms with gusty winds. The severe weather risk is not zero. Monitor updates, as always.
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No significant adjustments.
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Fog during the overnight hours into the morning hours. Remember, when temperatures fall below freezing with fog present, patchy slick spots can occur on roadways..
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
