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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Tuesday night to Tuesday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Monitor. Monitor updates. There are some models showing snow next week.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. Tuesday night and Wednesday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce wind damage late Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is a low-end tornado risk Wednesday. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk. A low risk Wednesday morning.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be intense after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° MO 46° to 48° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy storms possible late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 2:08 PM
Moonset: 1:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy with periods of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong with gusty wind and heavy rain. Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather Talk app.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% early and then 30% afternoon IL ~ 100% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Periods of widespread showers/storms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind. Isolated tornado risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Clearing sky conditions. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:32 PM
Moonset: 2:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 44° West KY 38° to 44° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Most likely dry.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers. Rain may mix with snow with no accumulation. The chance of that happening is higher over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:51 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Rain may mix with snow. No accumulation. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 25° to 28° MO 24° to 28° South IL 24° to 28° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 24° to 28° West KY 24° to 28° NW TN 24° to 28°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 25°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:22 PM
Moonset: 4:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold. Breezy, at times. A chance of a rain or snow shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 35° to 42° South IL 35° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 42° West KY 36° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cold. A chance of snow flurries. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 12° to 20°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:59 PM
Moonset: 4:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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December 1, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 42° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 42° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest wind 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° MO 20° to 25° South IL 20° to 25° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20° to 25° West KY 22° to 25° NW TN 22° to 25°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:42 PM
Moonset: 7:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through December 3rd: A few storms could be severe Tuesday night and Wednesday. Damaging wind and a low-end tornado risk will be the main concern.
Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 24th
Let’s keep an eye on thunderstorms late Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few of them could produce damaging wind gusts and even short-lived tornadoes.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Shower and thunderstorm chances over the next 24 hours.
- Dry Thanksgiving.
- Monitoring rain chances Friday into Sunday
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
The main weather story continues to be a cold front that is approaching our region from the west.
You can see that cold front on the WPC weather map depiction.
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This front will help produce widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow.
The afternoon radar and satellite shows the rain to our west. That will spread east with time. It will also develop.
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Locally heavy rain will be possible as PWAT values are high. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.
Precipitable water (PWAT) animation.
Those blue colors represent a lot of moisture for showers and storms to tap into.
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You can also see the surge of dew points ahead of the cold front. Dew point is a measure of moisture at the surface. It is a better tool than relative humidity.
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Rain totals will top an inch in some locations.
Strong and gusty wind will also accompany this system.
Wind gust map shows you the gradient winds. Gradient winds are caused by barometric pressure changes.
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As far as the threat of severe thunderstorms, there is a low-end risk. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the region in a level one risk tonight and tomorrow. One out of five. One being the lowest risk level.
There could be a few reports of strong and gusty thunderstorm winds tonight and tomorrow morning. Overall, the severe weather risk is limited, at best.
There is a second window of opportunity after the initial rain shield moves eastward.
That would be late Wednesday morning into mid-afternoon.
Here is round one. Widespread showers and storms tonight and into the wee early morning hours.
And then here is that second possible line. Broken line. It may actually form further west. I am just showing you what the models are showing for this particular time (1 PM).
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The front will still be west of our region during this time-period. That means that a few more showers and thunderstorms could form along the cold front.
If storms do form then there will be strong wind shear for them to tap into. Instability/dynamics won’t be great, however, for widespread severe weather.
Thus, monitor updates in case there are a few warnings.
The main concern will be gusty wind and maybe an isolated tornado risk. Confidence in actual severe weather remains low.
The region will dry out Wednesday night into Friday morning.
A series of disturbances will push across the region Friday into Sunday. I have at least scattered showers in the forecast during that time-frame.
Confidence in the Friday through Sunday forecast remains rather low. Models do not agree on rain coverage.
There are signals for a possible cut-off low next week.
Those are notoriously difficult to forecast. It could mean a cold rain or a rain snow mix. If the upper-level low forms. Something to watch.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 25th through December 1st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 2nd through December 8th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 8th through the 21st
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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