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November 25, 2018
Sunday forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of a few light showers
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: No wind chill anticipated.
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest becoming west behind the cold front at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Windy conditions on rivers and lakes. Isolated lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Gusty winds and a few showers could cause problems from time to time.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low to moderate
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Becoming colder. Windy. A shower or thunderstorm possible before midnight. A snow flurry or snow shower possible with no impact.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 30 IL ~ 26 to 30 KY ~ 26 to 30 TN ~ 28 to 32
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Ending.
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? I can’t rule out a report of a snow flurry or snow shower. No impact.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west at 20 to 40 mph with higher gusts likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways early. Gusty winds. Isolated lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Before 10 PM it is possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Falling temperatures combined with strong winds will make it feel much colder outside.
Sunset: 4:39 PM
Moonrise: 7:14 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:08 AM
November 26, 2018
Monday forecast: A morning snow shower or flurry possible. Much colder. Breezy. A mix of sun and clouds. Clearing through the day from west to east. Well below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 38 to 42
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? A flurry or snow shower will be possible, especially over southern Illinois and northern parts of western Kentucky.
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 15 to 25 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Cold wind chills.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Cold temperatures will not make for a nice day outside.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Quite cold with well below normal temperatures. Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 20 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 22 to 24 TN ~ 23 to 26
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? None
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Low wind chill values will make it uncomfortable. Monitor patchy morning fog. Remember, during the cold season we can have fog that causes patchy ice spots on bridges and overpasses.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Low wind chill values will make it uncomfortable.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 8:17 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:08 AM
November 27, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny. Chilly. Well below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 34 to 38 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 36 to 42
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor patchy morning fog. Remember, during the cold season we can have fog that causes patchy ice spots on bridges and overpasses.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Patchy fog possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 18 to 24 IL ~ 18 to 24 KY ~ 20 to 25 TN ~ 23 to 26
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Low temperatures will make it feel uncomfortable.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 9:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:02 AM
November 28, 2018
Wednesday forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Cold. Well below normal temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 36 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Once again, cold temperatures will make it uncomfortable.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 26 to 30 IL ~ 26 to 30 KY ~ 26 to 30 TN ~ 26 to 30
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 20 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? None
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 10:33 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:49 AM
November 29, 2018
Thursday forecast: Partly cloudy. A weak and fast-moving system will push across the area. I can’t rule out a light shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 46 IL ~ 44 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 46 TN ~ 46 to 50
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Possibly some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South to southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? A few rain showers could cause damp conditions.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise: 11:41 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:29 PM
November 30, 2018
Friday forecast: Increasing clouds. Showers possible. Still some questions on the timing of our next rain system.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Damp conditions if showers develop. Still some questions on the timing of our next rain system.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Maybe
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, not yet. I would monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain showers could be an issue.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Last Quarter
Moonset: 1:06 PM
December 1, 2018
Saturday forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 54 to 56 IL ~ 54 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous.
Is flooding anticipated? Not at this time.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms. Monitor this part of the forecast.
Is severe weather expected? Possible. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and consider a plan B.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Wet outdoor conditions could be an issue. I am monitoring the risk of lightning, as well.
UV Index: 1 Low
Sunrise: 6:51 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front moves across the area.
Temperature range: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 40 to 45
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is flooding anticipated? Unlikely
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: South to west at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms. Monitor this part of the forecast.
Is severe weather expected? Possible. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain could be an issue for those outside. I will monitor the lightning risk, as well. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 12:47 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 1:39 PM
December 2, 2018
Sunday forecast: Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 36 to 44
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major impacts.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 30 to 35
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor fog conditions. Lower visibility if fog forms.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major concerns.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 1:53 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 2:11 PM
December 3, 2018
Monday forecast: Partly to mostlyl sunny. A slight chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Perhaps some patchy wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 35 to 40 IL ~ 35 to 40 KY ~ 35 to 40 TN ~ 35 to 40
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Unlikely
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Unlikely
Are icy road conditions anticipated? Unlikely
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Rain showers could make for damp conditions for those who have to be outside.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 2:57 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 2:43 PM
December 4, 2018
Tuesday forecast: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~43 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 38 to 44
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range: MO ~ 30 to 35 IL ~ 30 to 35 KY ~ 30 to 35 TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise: 4:00 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:17 PM
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Today through next Saturday: I am not anticipating any accumulating snow through Saturday.
A snow flurry or snow shower will be possible Sunday night and Monday morning. This would mainly be over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. No impacts anticipated.
The Weather Observatory will be holding two open houses for adults and children. Weather permitting, the open house will be Saturday, December 1st.
Class of 1988 (Massac County High School). I will be having a special open house for you on Friday, November 30th (the night before the other open house)
Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook
A light rain event is possible today and tonight. Rain totals from 0.00″ to 0.20″. Many areas may remain dry.
I am monitoring a weak fast moving clipper for the middle of the week.
A heavier rain event is possible Friday or Saturday. I can’t rule out thunderstorms. That will depend on the track of the area of low pressure.
Here are the forecasted rain totals through tomorrow. Again, light event.
Add in the late week event. Heavier totals possible. This is both today’s rain coupled with the Friday/Saturday event.
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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.
If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.
You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
Questions? Broken links? Other questions?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Today through Friday afternoon: No severe thunderstorms.
Friday night through Saturday night: Monitor updates. An incoming storm system could bring thunderstorms to the region. I can’t rule out intense storms, but it is a bit early for certainties.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
- Colder temperatures behind the Midwest blizzard
- A cool week of weather ahead.
- A stronger system may bring showers and thunderstorms to the region on Friday and Saturday.
- Strong thunderstorm risk?
A major blizzard is impacting areas to our north and northwest. Widespread blizzard conditions are likely from Kansas, Iowa, northern Missouri, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. Anyone with travel plans into the winter storm/blizzard area should reconsider those plans.
Winds will combine with heavy snow to produce near white-out conditions. This is a major early winter storm event. A widespread 4 to 8-inch snow event is likely with pockets of 8 to 12 inches.
This system will not bring significant winter weather to our region. That is the good news. It will, however, bring cold temperatures.
We will have some scattered showers today. Windy conditions will develop as the area of low-pressure deepens.
A deepening low-pressure center will cause tightly packed isobars. Isobars are equal lines of pressure. Winds will pick up with speeds above 35 mph possible by this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds will continue into tonight with falling temperatures.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the 20’s. Temperatures Tuesday night will drop into the lower 20’s. Wind chills both nights will fall into the teens.
Monday is going to feel like winter with highs in the 30’s. Wind chills Monday will range from 15 to 25 degrees. Brrr.
Tuesday will also be cold with highs only in the 30’s. These are well below the seasonal norms. Normally we would be in the 50’s during the afternoon hours.
A fast moving weak system will push through the region Thursday and Thursday night. A few clouds and sprinkles possible with it.
A much larger system may bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to the region by Friday or Saturday. Right now, it appears Saturday may end up being the wet and stormy day.
The intensity of the low-pressure center is still in question. Many models do show instability in the region and that could mean thunderstorms.
I am closely monitoring the trends in the guidance to see if a few strong storms may occur.
Here is what the EC is showing. EC is a model.
Click images on this page to enlarge them.
The colors represent rain intensity. These are six hour rate totals.
The low is centered over eastern Kansas. You can see the black lines. Those are equals line of barometric pressure (isobars).
The EC would bring a gusty band of showers and thunderstorms through the region Saturday afternoon.
This will need to be monitored.
I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-rsix-hourecasters.
Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.
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Fall Outlook!
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November temperature and precipitation outlook
November temperature outlook
November precipitation outlook
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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
WeatherBrains Episode 670
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey. Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
- Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
- Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
