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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog…
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial. The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
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November 24, 2016
Thursday Night: Clouds. Drizzle. Cool. Will monitor fog chances.
What impact is expected? Low visibility if fog develops
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 0-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Drizzle
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Cloudy. A 20% for drizzle. Perhaps some afternoon clearing. Clouds may once again win out.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps some drizzle
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0-1
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Cool. Will again be monitoring fog chances.
What impact is expected? Monitoring for fog
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range. (lows will depend on cloud cover)
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southwest during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Chilly. Fog possible.
What impact is expected? Mostly likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 27, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Perhaps some increase in clouds as the day wears on. A system well to our southwest will start to move northeast into our region..
What impact is expected? Perhaps morning fog, otherwise none..
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none. Small chance over southeast Missouri late in the afternoon.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Becoming cloudy. A few showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Perhaps becoming widespread.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Thunderstorms possible..
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: o-3
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Breezy. Mild. Rain. Thunderstorms possible. Some data shows locally heavy rain.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely. A thunderstorm possible. Breezy, a times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Becoming southwest to west and perhaps northwest late in the day at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds possible at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers will likely come to an end on Tuesday night. Turning colder.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- Dry and cool weather Friday into Sunday
- Rain chances increase as we head into Sunday night and especially Monday/Tuesday
- Active period
I hope you and your family are having a wonderful Thanksgiving Day and weekend.
Forecast:
Well, I had hoped the sun would win out on Thursday, but nature had other ideas. The cloud deck was thick and large. Sometimes this happen during the Month of November. Low level moisture can be difficult to scour out. That was the case on Thanksgiving. Sorry about that…I was too bullish on bringing the sun back into our area after our departing storm system moved away.
Here was the Thursday morning satellite view. Clouds clouds and more clouds.
Clouds will likely linger into Friday. Patchy morning fog and drizzle will also be possible.
Dry weather is anticipated Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs, each day, will rise into the mid to upper 50’s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30’s to lower 40’s tonight and then mostly in the 30’s Saturday and Sunday morning.
A large storm system will develop early next week. This system has the potential to produce severe thunderstorms to our south (monitor updates) to heavy rain across portions of the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley’s. Heavy snow is likely well to our north and northwest. This is a classic winter storm system developing. We will remain on the warm side of the system.
Here is what that system looks like on the GFS model guidance
Here is the weather map for 6 pm on Monday. You can see this large system spreading rain into our region. Green would be rain. Blue would be snow. Pink is ice.
Plenty of rain developing.
The colors represent six hour rainfall totals. This map would be 12 pm on Monday through 6 pm on Monday evening.
Here is the 12 am Tuesday morning through 6 AM on Tuesday rainfall totals. Yellow represents moderate to heavy rain. The low is still back in Oklahoma.
This next image is for 6 am Tuesday through 12 pm on Tuesday. This system could produce quite a bit of rain. Placement of the heaviest rain is in question.
This next image is for 12 pm on Tuesday through 6 pm on Tuesday. One low is centered over northern Illinois and another low developing in Oklahoma. This will need to be monitored. This could prolong our rain and storm event. Check out the snow to our west as cold air filters further south.
I will be monitoring a few features on this system. The track of the low pressure is key to where the heavy rain and severe weather occurs. Monitor updates as we move forward.
I would not be surprised if the storm produces three or more inches of rain over portions of the region. The question remains placement of the heaviest ran bands.
The Wednesday night and Thursday morning models shifted the heaviest rain further west and northwest. Confidence on placement of the heavy rain is low.
The rain should be focused on Monday into Tuesday.
A parade of storm systems are showing up in the long range models. Each one of these systems could produce quite a bit of precipitation. We may break our drought. At the very least we will put a big dent into our drought.
Here is another system around December 4th. Looks the same as the previous one! A parade of systems in the charts. MUCH more active than recent months.
Long way off until we know the details on this particular system. Right now the models are taking the low well to our south. That would favor snow in our region, but it is just too far out for specifics. A lot of times the models flip flop. The next update could show the low well to our north. That would place us in rain and storms.
I continue to monitor snow chances in the long range. The models keep showing snow for our region. The problem is that the snow is showing up in the long range guidance. Long range guidance is not known for the finer details verifying. They do well with the overall pattern, but not the specifics.
I will be posting a new winter storm outlook on Friday. See details below.
I will be issuing winter forecasts on the Weather Talk page. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
The next winter storm update will be posted on Friday. You can still view the previous update by going to this URL and then clicking on the Daily Weather Summary.
The winter storm forecasts are behind the Weather Talk paywall. I usually spend $700.00 or more (per month) to bring you all of this weather information. Data costs and other. The Weather Talk subscriptions start at $3 a month. It is a bargain.
I hope you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving. We all have much to be thankful for.
Find me on Twitter, as well!
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
We might have the potential for heavy rain as we move into early next week. Monitor updates.
There remain questions on the placement of the heaviest rain totals. Low confidence this far out.
Scale is on the right side of the image. I zoomed in on our region. This is the official NOAA outlook.
Click images to enlarge.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS rainfall totals for the Sunday through Tuesday event
Still several to monitor this system. GFS paints heavy rainfall totals.
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals for the Sunday through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
Friday morning low temperatures
Temperatures will probably end up warmer than this because of clouds.
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Friday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon high temperatures
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thursday night through Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday through Tuesday: I am monitoring another storm system. I can’t rule out thunderstorms. The severe weather threat, at least at this time, appears low. There could be a threat of severe thunderstorms to our south. Let’s keep an eye on it. I will be closely monitoring it.
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No significant adjustments.
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No major concerns through Saturday. I can’t rule out fog during the overnight hours.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
