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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Monday night to Monday night
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Not at this time.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. Tuesday night and Wednesday. I am watching Friday/Saturday, as well.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce wind damage late Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is a low-end tornado risk. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Monday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 34° to 38° South IL 34° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Light southeast wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:43 PM
Moonset: 12:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of mainly PM showers over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None for most. Isolated during the late afternoon over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be intense after midnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 50° MO 46° to 48° South IL 46° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy storms possible late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 2:08 PM
Moonset: 1:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy with periods of showers and thunderstorms. There are some questions about the exact timing of the frontal boundary. This will be key to any severe weather concerns.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 62° to 65° NW TN 62° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming southwest and west at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Periods of widespread showers/storms.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind. Isolated tornado risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° MO 36° to 40° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 38° to 42° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:32 PM
Moonset: 2:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° MO 35° to 40° South IL 35° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 49° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South wind 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Thickening clouds. A chance of showers developing.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° MO 36° to 44° South IL 36° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 2:57 PM
Moonset: 3:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 52° to 56° South IL 52° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 34° to 36° South IL 34° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 35° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:51 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West wind 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° MO 30° to 35° South IL 30° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 32° to 35° NW TN 32° to 35°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:22 PM
Moonset: 4:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 30th: A few storms could be severe Tuesday night and Wednesday. Damaging wind and a low-end tornado risk will be the main concern.
Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 24th
Let’s keep an eye on thunderstorms late Tuesday night and Wednesday. A few of them could produce damaging wind gusts and even short-lived tornadoes.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Unsettled weather pattern.
- Rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday and again late week.
- No extreme weather in the forecast
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
The main weather focus is on a cold front Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another rain-even is possible Friday into Sunday.
An area of low pressure will develop over Kansas and Missouri Tuesday. This low will then push northeast into Illinois and the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday.
A trailing cold front will push across our region during that time period.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will form along the cold front.
The bulk of the rain will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday. There are some timing issues with the different models.
Some of the models push the front through the area Wednesday morning and some late morning into afternoon. This may be important when it comes to the threat of severe thunderstorms.
As is usually the case during November, wind fields aloft will be very strong. Strong wind shear. One ingredient in severe weather.
Dew points will surge ahead of the front into the upper 50s and lower 60s. That is sufficient for severe weather, as well.
You can see the front pushing across the region on this dew point animation. Dew points surge higher ahead of the front and lower behind it.
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There is at least a low-end risk of damaging wind and short-lived tornadoes late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This is a conditional severe weather risk. Conditional means that all of the ingredients will need to come together in order for there to be severe weather.
Monitor your Beau Dodson Weather app.
The front will push off to the east Wednesday afternoon and evening. That will bring an end to rain chances.
Thursday into Friday morning will be dry.
A series of disturbances will move across the region Friday into Sunday. Showers will accompany these systems, as well.
For now, the thunderstorm chances appear limited but will need to be monitored.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 24th through November 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers December 1st through December 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 8th through the 21st
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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