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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial. The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday Night: Some evening clouds. Perhaps an early evening shower. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Early evening wet roadways. Will monitor for fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest winds will become west/northwest at 5-10 mph. Perhaps some higher gusts during the evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 8 pm. Rain will be departing the region on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Ending from west to east.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be damp during the evening hours.
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Perhaps some clearing late. I am hoping the sun wins the day, but there are some questions on that subject. Lower confidence on the cloud cover for Thursday.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range. If clouds are thicker than anticipated then temperatures could be a few degrees cooler.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph. Winds may become southerly during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Some clouds. Cool. Will monitor fog chances.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Partly sunny. A system will be passing to our north. I believe the system will move through our region dry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Mostly clear. Cool. Will again be monitoring fog chances.
What impact is expected? Monitoring for fog
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Chilly. I will again monitor for fog chances.
What impact is expected? Mostly likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Confidence in the forecast from Sunday into next week is low. There are several precipitation makers that I am monitoring. Several chances for precipitation could occur from Sunday into the middle of the week. The timing of the precipitation remains problematic. I will continue to hone in on the details as we move forward.
November 27, 2016
Sunday: Some clouds. Precipitation chances may hold off until late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Low confidence on the timing of the next system. I have already adjusted Saturday’s forecast.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Thunderstorms possible..
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-64 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: o-3
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely. Thunderstorms possible. Some data shows locally heavy rain.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-42 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
More information on the UV index. Click here
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- A beautiful Thanksgiving Day
- Friday should be dry
- Monitoring another system for Sunday and/or Monday
- Monitoring another system around December 3rd-5th
Find me on Twitter, as well!
RAIN! Most of the region recorded precipitation totals of 0.40″ and 0.80″. There were several reports of over one inch of rain. Most of that fell late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This was much needed rain. We remain in drought. It will take quite a bit of rain, across the entire region, to break the drought.
This is the second round of precipitation within a seven day period. The great news is that more rain is in the forecast. I think we are going to dent the drought. Let’s hope we end the drought. It is a possibility.
Rain will taper off on Wednesday evening. I am a little concerned that guidance is holding clouds a bit longer into Thanksgiving Day. I was hoping for mostly sunny conditions. This is one part of the forecast that will need to be monitored. Thick clouds would also keep temperatures down just a bit more.
Thanksgiving Day should deliver wonderful weather. Some clouds possible. I was hoping for more sun than clouds. Clouds may attempt to linger longer. Temperatures will be near normal. Expect afternoon highs to reach into the 50’s.
Thursday night into Saturday is now anticipated to remain dry. The storm system that I have been monitoring for Saturday has been slowing in the guidance. That means we should remain dry. Temperatures will be near normal on Friday and Saturday.
Our next storm system will wind up to our west and southwest on Sunday into Monday. Showers and perhaps thunderstorms will develop over Missouri and Arkansas. The precipitation will then spread across our area.
The best chance for rain may hold off until Monday into Tuesday. Some of the guidance is painting heavy rain. Let’s keep an eye on it. Severe weather may develop to our south. I will be monitoring that, as well.
Heavy snow is possible on the north side of the system, but that would be well outside of our area.
Another system is showing up in the charts for December 3rd and 4th. Several days to monitor that event.
Some fog will be possible over the coming nights. Keep that in mind.
Let’s take a look at the parade of storm systems on the GFS guidance. This is great news for the drought. We should pick up some decent rainfall totals between now and the second week of December.
Here is the Monday and Tuesday event. Notice the bright colors. Some locally heavy rain showing up in the charts. Perhaps some thunderstorms, as well.
This first graphic is for Monday night around 11 pm into early Tuesday morning. Green represents rain. Yellow represents moderate to heavy rain. Blue would be snow.
This next map is for 12 pm Tuesday.
This next map is for Saturday, December 3rd. Another system.
This next map is for December 9th. Yet another system. Lot of action in the weather department over the coming weeks.
I will be issuing winter forecasts on the Weather Talk page. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
The next winter storm update will be posted on Friday. You can still view the previous update by going to this URL and then clicking on the Daily Weather Summary.
The winter storm forecasts are behind the Weather Talk paywall. I usually spend $700.00 or more (per month) to bring you all of this weather information. Data costs and other. The Weather Talk subscriptions start at $3 a month. It is a bargain.
I hope you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving. We all have much to be thankful for.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Our Wednesday rain will come to an end during the early evening hours. Another rain system is possible by Sunday and Monday.
Scale is on the right side of the image. I zoomed in on our region.
Click images to enlarge.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS rainfall totals for the Sunday through Tuesday event
Still several to monitor this system. GFS paints heavy rainfall totals.
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals for the Sunday through Tuesday event
Click image to enlarge
Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday through Tuesday: I am monitoring another storm system. I can’t rule out thunderstorms. The severe weather threat, at least at this time, appears low. There could be a threat of severe thunderstorms to our south. Let’s keep an eye on it. I will be closely monitoring it.
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Adjusted the weekend forecast to account for a slower arrival of the next system.
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No major concerns through Saturday. I can’t rule out fog during the overnight hours.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
