We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Are you in need of new eye glasses? New contacts? Perhaps you need an eye exam. Then be sure and visit the Eye Care Associates of western Kentucky (the Paducah location).
For all of your families eye care needs. Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Best at Enabling Body Shop Profitability since 1996. Located In Paducah Kentucky and Evansville Indiana; serving all customers in between. They provide Customer Service, along with all the tools necessary for body shops to remain educated and competitive. Click the logo above for their main web-site. You can find McClintock Preferred Finishes on Facebook, as well
Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
.
.
.
I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial. The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
.
November 22, 2016
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Increasing rain chances as the night wears on. In other words, best chances after midnight. Some heavy downpours possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few downpours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread late tonight. Moving in from the southwest.
Is severe weather expected? No, but a few lightning strikes are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B. Rain will overspread the region as the night wears on. More likely the later into the evening/night.
Sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Some locally heavy downpours possible. Perhaps most likely during the morning. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-56 degree range. Temperatures may fall a bit during the afternoon. This will depend on the placement of the cold front.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South becoming southwest/west at 6-12 mph. Perhaps gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread, especially during the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
Wednesday Night: Some evening clouds. Perhaps an early evening shower. Clearing late. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Early evening wet roadways. Will monitor for fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest winds will become west/northwest at 5-10 mph. Perhaps some higher gusts during the evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 8 pm. Rain will be departing the region on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Ending from west to east.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might be damp during the evening hours.
.
November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Periods of clouds. Hoping we can break free of the clouds as the day wears on. Guidance is starting to show more clouds.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph. Winds may become southerly during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Cool. Will monitor fog chances.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. A system will be passing to our north. I believe the system will move through our region dry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Cool. Will again be monitoring fog chances.
What impact is expected? Monitoring for fog
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Chilly. I will again monitor for fog chances.
What impact is expected? Mostly likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-348 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Confidence in the forecast from Sunday into next week is low. There are several precipitation makers that I am monitoring. Several chances for precipitation could occur from Sunday into the middle of the week. The timing of the precipitation remains problematic.
November 27, 2016
Sunday: Some clouds. The precipitation may hold off until late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Low confidence on the timing of the next system. I have already adjusted Saturday’s forecast.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
Sunday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
.
November 28, 2016
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-64 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: o-3
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
.
Monday Night: Cloudy. Showers likely. Some data shows locally heavy rain.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: Southwest to west at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
.
November 29, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
.
Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
.
November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds: West at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
.
More information on the UV index. Click here
.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
- A beautiful Thanksgiving Day
- Friday should be dry
- Monitoring another system for Saturday and Sunday
- Winter storm forecast has been posted on the Weather Talk site
Find me on Twitter, as well!
Rain is in the forecast for tonight into Wednesday morning. The showers will move out by Wednesday afternoon or early Wednesday evening. Rainfall totals greater than one inch will be possible in some locations.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We might see some clearing late Wednesday night.
Thanksgiving is shaping up to be a nice day. Autumn like temperatures with highs in the 50’s. Winds should die off on Thursday, as well.
Friday will be dry with seasonably cool temperatures.
I am monitoring another storm system for Saturday or Sunday. Confidence is lower than normal on the eventual outcome of that event. We may pick up more rain showers and perhaps even thunderstorms.
Perhaps the best chance of precipitation will arrive on Sunday and Sunday night/Monday. Long range data indicates rain may continue past Monday, but confidence on this outcome is rather low. I will continue to monitor trends and update the forecast numbers (top of the page).
Here is the latest SPI index map. Look at the dark red colors. WELL below normal precipitation over the last two months. This past summer we were in extreme wetness. Now, drought.
Click image to enlarge.
The active should remain active into the middle of December. I am tracking numerous systems that could deliver precipitation to our local area. The big question will be cold air. Might one of these systems produce snow or frozen precipitation? It is a possibility.
Let me show you some more systems that I am tracking.
This first one is this coming Sunday night and Monday. Some of today’s data paints the bulk of the precipitation on Monday into Monday night. Lower than normal confidence.
This is the weather map for 6 am on Monday morning.
This next image is for Monday night. The GFS paints heavy rain for our area.
I am tracking another system for December 1st. The path of this one is uncertain.
This next map is for December 5th and 6th. Long way out. Active pattern unfolding.
I will be issuing winter forecasts on the Weather Talk page. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
The next winter storm update will be posted on Friday. You can still view the previous update by going to this URL and then clicking on the Daily Weather Summary.
The winter storm forecasts are behind the Weather Talk paywall. I usually spend $700.00 or more (per month) to bring you all of this weather information. Data costs and other. The Weather Talk subscriptions start at $3 a month. It is a bargain.
I hope you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving. We all have much to be thankful for.
.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain will end by Wednesday night. Another chance of rain arrives as early as this weekend. Lower than normal confidence on rain totals.
Scale is on the right side of the image.
Click images to enlarge.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday event
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday event
Click image to enlarge
.
Look at the seven day precipitation totals from NOAA. Let’s hope this verifies.
.
Wednesday morning low temperatures
.
.
Wednesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
.
.
Thursday morning low temperatures
.
.
.
Thursday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
.
.
Regional Radar
.
.
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday night through Saturday the 26th Severe weather is not anticipated.
More lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now the severe weather threat appears low. I will keep an eye on it. Confidence is lower than normal concerning the weekend forecast.
.
Struggling.with rain chances this weekend. Mainly the timing of the precipitation.
.
.
Isolated lightning dd
..
.
.
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
.
..
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
