Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video

Long Range Video

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds. More clouds over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Less clouds as you travel southwest.  Breezy.  Chilly.
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Chilly.  If clouds are thicken, then temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:30 PM
Moonset:  12:37 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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Saturday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  I will need to monitor clouds, again.  Clouds in the autumn can be difficult to scour out.
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction:  West southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: –
Moonset:  1:02 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny during the morning.  Becoming partly cloudy from west to east. Warmer.
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction:  South 10 to 24 mph. Gusty.
Gusty winds Sunday

Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Sunday  Night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly after 7 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 12:25 AM
Moonset:  1:24 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Monday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction:  South becoming west at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Evening clouds.  A chance of evening showers over mainly Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly before 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 33°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways during the evening hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 1:27 AM
Moonset:  1:44 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

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Tuesday Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Cool. A slight chance of showers.
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 45° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 45° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 45° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction:  Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: East soutehast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 2:24 AM
Moonset:  2:05 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Crescent

Rainfall totals through Thursday night.

This is from the GEFS model.

This is from the NWS

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Good morning and welcome to the weekend.

The only real weather story today will be cool temperatures and clouds.  We will have to monitor where the cloud line shifts.

Clouds during the autumn months can be difficult to scour out.

At 6 am the clouds were over portions of the region.

The clouds have kept overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Clouds will keep temperatures down by several degrees.

You can see the clouds on this satellite image.   Double click the image to enlarge it.  You can see the state outlines and cities on the map.

Highs today will mostly be in the 40s.

I have been saying that the best chance of freeze conditions would be tonight.  Friday night.

It will be close in some counties.  It appears that lows will dip into the upper 20s to middle 30s area-wide.

If clouds remain, then temperatures will likely remain above freezing.

A warming trend begins tomorrow and will last until Monday.  Then, a cold front will pass through the region Monday afternoon and evening.

That front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday evening.  Ending west to east Monday evening.

Temperatures Monday night have another shot of dipping into the upper 20s to middle 30s.  Thus, a freeze is possible Monday night, as well.

Then, we turn our attention to a large system next Wednesday and Thursday.

I continue to monitor the timing of that system.  It is possible that the bulk of the rain will fall Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Some data brings the system in slower.  That would mean a wetter Thanksgiving, as well.

At this time, I will just need to monitor trends and adjust the forecast as confidence in the final details increase.

For now, I have peak rain chances Wednesday evening and night.  Then, tapering on Thanksgiving.

No severe weather concerns.  Thankfully!

I am watching colder air to the north.  There could be a band of snow with it, as well.  For now, that appears to be north of our local area.  If you are traveling northward next week, for the holidays, then monitor updated forecasts.

Let’s look at some future-cast radars.  Two models.  The EC and GFS model.  What radar might look like next week.

This includes the Sunday/Monday showers, as well.  Then, the bigger system Wednesday and Thursday.

Time stamp is in Zulu.  00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.  12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm.

EC model

GFS model

Data continues to point towards a much colder air mass towards the end of next week into the first week of December.

A high probability of freeze conditions during that time-frame.

Too early to know if we will have precipitation with the cold snap.  I am monitoring it, as always.

You can see that cold shot on this GFS model animation showing temperature anomalies.

Red represents above average temperatures.

Blue and pink represent below average temperatures.

Watch the cold snap move southeast into our region next week.

Date and time-stamp on top of the image.

Here is what the EC and GFS models show for low temperatures on Tuesday, December 3rd.

Check out another view of the blast of cold air diving into the US from Canada next week into the first week of December. Those blue, green, and purple colors represent well below average temperatures. Perhaps we can finally stop mowing the grass!

Double click the animation to enlarge it.

We shall see!

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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