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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Not at this time.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No. Rain may briefly mix with sleet or snow over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky Thursday evening, but little or no accumulating is anticipated.
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November 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly sunny. Where clouds are thicker, temperatures will be slightly colder. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 38° to 42° / South IL 40° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° / West KY 40° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: North 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° / West KY 22° to 24° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:05 PM
Moonset: 9:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 50° / South IL 48° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 48° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming south at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° / SE MO 34° to 36° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 34° to 36° / South IL 34° to 36° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° / West KY 34° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 PM
Moonset: 10:31 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 58° / South IL 55° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 55° to 60° / NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain developing over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Mainly late at night. Spreading east towards morning.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Mostly late at night
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 40° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 42° / South IL 40° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: South 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:00 PM
Moonset: 11:15 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with rain. Cooler. Rain will end west to east during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 80% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain ending. Rain may briefly become a wintry mix over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Little or no impacts anticipated. If there is moisture left from the rain then it could freeze on some surfaces.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
Timing of the rain: Ending
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 23° to 26° / SE MO 22° to 25° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 22° to 25° / South IL 22° to 25° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 22° to 25° / West KY 22° to 25° / NW TN 23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 26°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. If there a puddles on roadways or parking lots then they may freeze over.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check weather radars.
Moonrise: 9:59 PM
Moonset: 11:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain: .
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 44° to 46° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 46° / South IL 44° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 44° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: North becoming southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:02 PM
Moonset: 12:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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November 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain: .
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 4:38 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise:
Moonset: 12:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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November 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain: .
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 4:37 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:06 AM
Moonset: 1:26 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through November 25th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Cold today and tonight.
- Nice Tuesday/Wednesday. Warming trend.
- Widespread rain Wednesday night/Thursday.
- Dry Friday through Sunday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
Widespread rain fell across the region over the weekend. Here are the radar indicated rain totals. I recorded 0.11″ at the Weather Observatory in Massac County.
It was too warm for snow or ice. We are entering that time of the year. For now, no accumulating snow or ice in the forecast.
Check out this photo from Ryan Hobbs (southern Illinois). This is the cold front as it passed through the area last night.
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We are going to have to deal with some clouds today. Mostly mid and high level clouds. This could shave a couple of degrees off the cold thermometer.
It is going to be a raw day with gusty winds, at times. Highs will only be in the upper 30s to middle 40s. That variation will depend on cloud cover vs areas with sunshine.
You can see this 8 am satellite image. Clouds in white. No precipitation today.
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Temperatures will begin to moderate tomorrow and Wednesday. Expect highs by Wednesday to be around 60 degrees! We will take that after our short cold snap.
We should have sunshine Tuesday with some clouds Wednesday. I will need to watch Wednesday in case some low level clouds develop because of southerly winds.
We will also have gusty winds Wednesday. Wind gusts should top 30 mph from time to time. That will occur ahead of our next cold front that will push into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
Wind gusts Wednesday
Widespread rain will develop over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Wednesday night. That will slowly spread eastward into the morning hours of Thanksgiving.
Expect widespread rain Thursday. The rain will then end west to east Thursday afternoon.
We should be rain free by Thursday night.
Cold air will usher in behind the front Thursday night and Friday. Lows by Friday morning will drop into the lower to middle 20s.
There is a chance of patchy black ice Thursday night. If the wind does not dry surfaces, then water (from the rain that has fallen) will freeze.
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Rain totals from the Wednesday night and Thursday will range from 0.25″ to 0.50″. Locally higher totals are possible.
Here is the general idea for rain totals during that time period.
Model consensus show this for rain totals. The above image was from the NWS/WPC.
This is what the models are showing.
About the same.
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We dry out Friday into the weekend. No significant weather expected. A few clouds Saturday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 22nd through November 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers November 29th through December 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers December 3rd through December 16th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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