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Expressway Carwash and Express Lube are a locally owned and operated full service Carwash and Lube established in 1987. They have been proudly serving the community for 29 years now at their Park Avenue location and 20 years at their Southside location. They have been lucky enough to partner with Sidecar Deli in 2015, which allows them to provide their customers with not only quality service, but quality food as well. . If you haven’t already, be sure to make Expressway your one stop shop, with their carwash, lube and deli. For hours of operation and pricing visit www.expresswashlube.com or Expressway Carwash on Facebook.
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I have launched the new weather texting service! I could use your help. Be sure and sign up and fully support all of the weather data you see each day.
This is a monthly subscription service. Supporting this helps support everything else. The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.
Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial. The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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November 21, 2016
Monday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some high clouds after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 0-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m. Last Quarter.
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November 22, 2016
Tuesday: Sunny during the morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. Breezy, at times. Warmer. Perhaps a few showers over southeast Missouri during the late afternoon hours. Tuesday may end up dry.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (low confidence, because rain may hold off until Tuesday night)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 0-5 mph during the morning and increasing to 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Chilly showers likely. Thunderstorms are possible. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 30 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~90%. IL ~ 90%. KY ~ 90% . TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Have a plan B.
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Perhaps most likely during the morning. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South becoming southwest/west at 8-16 mph. Gusts above 20 mph likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80% (mostly during the morning hours)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread, especially during the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 0-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Some evening clouds. Perhaps an early evening shower. Clearing late. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Will monitor for fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West at 7=14 mph before 8 pm. Winds decreasing overnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated before 8 pm. Rain should be leaving our region on Wednesday afternoon. It is possible that Wednesday evening will remain dry.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Nice day anticipated.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph. Winds may become southerly during the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps a few late night high clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Mostly sunny. Perhaps a few patchy clouds. A system will be passing to our north.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? Monitoring for fog
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Probably none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. Perhaps some showers. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 27, 2016
Sunday: Some clouds. A shower possible. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Cloudy. A chance for showers. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. A chance for showers.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday
- A beautiful Thanksgiving Day
- Friday should be dry
- Monitoring another system for Saturday and Sunday
- Winter storm forecast has been posted on the Weather Talk site
Find me on Twitter, as well!
I hope you enjoyed Monday’s weather. It was a bit on the cool side, but not as chilly as recent days. We have actually had a couple of days with below normal temperatures.
We have another rain maker showing up in the charts for Tuesday night into Wednesday. We need this rain. Severe drought encompasses much of Kentucky and moderate drought blankets portions of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
Rainfall totals from Tuesday night into Wednesday should range from 0.30″ to 0.60″ with locally higher amounts. I can’t rule out some 1″ totals. The best chance for the higher totals will probably be over southeast Illinois and Kentucky.
Severe weather is not anticipated. That is the good news. We have been fortunate this fall. Normally the fall months have at least a couple of severe weather episodes. So far, so good.
Lightning will be a possibility on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Let’s take a look at the GFS surface maps for the next few days. The colors represent precipitation totals. Green would be rain and blue would snow. The darker green and yellow colors represent moderate rain.
This first image is for 3 am on Wednesday. Quite a bit of rain in our region. Tight pressure gradient will mean gusty winds, as well.
You can see the area of low pressure over northwest Missouri. It will track to our north. That keeps us on the warm side of the storm system. Snow well to our north.
These maps represent the six hour rainfall totals. This first map would be from 12 am on Wednesday through 6 am on Wednesday. The colors represent the previous six hour rainfall totals. The scale is on the right.
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Here are the NAM model guidance wind gusts maps. These numbers are in knots. Gusty winds likely on Tuesday into Wednesday.This map is for 6 pm on Tuesday
This map is for 12 am on Wednesday
This map is for 3 am Wednesday.
This map is for 6 am on Wednesday.
That system develops over our region. Here is the 12 pm map for Sunday. You can see rain showers over our local area.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain showers are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. NOAA is showing up to an inch of rain for some of our counties. Let’s hope!
Scale is on the right side of the image.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday event
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday event
Click image to enlarge
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
Temperatures might be a few degrees colder than shown.
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Tuesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Wednesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday through Saturday the 26th Severe weather is not anticipated.
Lightning is possible starting as early as Tuesday afternoon, but perhaps a bit more likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. Severe weather is not anticipated.
More lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Right now the severe weather threat appears low. I will keep an eye on it.
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No major adjustments in this forecast package.
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No significant concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
