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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
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Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial. The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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November 20, 2016
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Cold with below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25-30 degree range. I am struggling with the low temperatures on Sunday night. This may need to be adjusted. Some data indicates colder readings.
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds: Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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November 21, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny and not as cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m. Last Quarter.
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some high clouds after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 22, 2016
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Breezy, at times. Warmer. Perhaps a few showers over southeast Missouri during the afternoon hours. Tuesday may end up dry. Will be watching an incoming system from the west and southwest.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (low confidence, because rain may hold off until Tuesday night)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: East and southeast at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Chilly showers likely. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southeast at 10-20 mph. Gusts above 30 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Quite a few clouds. Showers possible. Perhaps most likely during the morning. Cool. Clearing possible during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South becoming southwest/west at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 80% . TN ~ 80% (mostly during the morning hours)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread, especially during the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Some evening clouds. Perhaps an early evening shower. Clearing late. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Will monitor for fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Nice day anticipated.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps a few late night high clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest becoming northeast and east at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Monitoring for fog
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Probably none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. Perhaps some showers. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 27, 2016
Sunday: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Some clouds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear and cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their website here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Rain chances are on the rise by Tuesday night into Wednesday
- Gusty winds late Tuesday into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
- Nice Thanksgiving weather!
- Monitoring the weekend for another system
- Active pattern into December. Colder?
Find me on Twitter, as well!
Monday through Wednesday:
The main weather story, over the coming days, will be increasing rain chances on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A few showers are possible, over southeast Missouri, as early as Tuesday afternoon. The bulk of the rain, however, will arrive on Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday. I am hoping we dry out by Wednesday afternoon or evening. I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front. Still a couple of days away.
Let’s take a look at some of the models and what they are showing.
The blue represents snow and the green/dark green represents rain. Perhaps some thunder, as well.
We will have to monitor the speed of the system. Showers might move into southeast Missouri as early as Tuesday afternoon and evening. Keep that in mind.
These maps show you the previous six hours rainfall totals. This first map is from 6 pm Tuesday through 12 am on Wednesday.
This next image is for 12 am on Wednesday through 6 am on Wednesday. The scale is on the right. The scale shows you how much rain might fall during that six hour time period. I am leaning towards a total rainfall over 0.40″ to 0.80″. Perhaps pockets of higher totals. Similar to this last system.
This next image is from 6 am on Wednesday through 12 pm on Wednesday. The rain should end from west to east on Wednesday morning and afternoon. First ending over southeast Missouri. Lingering the longest over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Check out the snow in Wisconsin.
This next image is from 12 pm on Wednesday through 6 pm on Wednesday. Notice that showers should be departing by Wednesday afternoon.
This next image is for another storm system later in the week. Friday, to be exact. The model guidance has mixed opinions on this one. Perhaps some increase in clouds on Friday. For now, I have left the forecast dry. The system does not appear to have much in the way of moisture to work with. I will keep an eye on it, as always.
This next image is for Saturday night and Sunday morning. Another system could spread rain back into our area. This will need to be monitored. The EC guidance is more bullish than the GFS. More bullish meaning it shows more precipitation.
This next image is for Tuesday, November 29th. Yet another system is showing up in the charts. Some of the models show this one producing heavy rain. Plenty of time to monitor. Active active! Perhaps we can finally end our drought.
This next image is from the NAM model guidance. This is for this coming Tuesday and Wednesday.
The NAM model is a bit higher resolution than the GFS.
The NAM guidance shows rain breaking out as early as Tuesday afternoon. This is the future-cast radar for 6 pm Tuesday.
The colors represent where rain is falling. Again, this is the future-cast rainfall.
This next image is for 12 am on Wednesday. Showers in our region. Perhaps some thunder.
This next image is for 6 am on Wednesday. You can see precipitation covering much of the region. Perhaps starting to wind down over our western counties. The timing will need to be monitored.
This next image is for 12 pm on Wednesday. The heavier rain has moved well to our east.
Rainfall totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″ appear possible with the Tuesday/Wednesday system. The threat for severe weather is low. We might have some lightning and gusty winds. Instability appears to be low to non-existent. Thus, the threat for severe weather appears low.
Let’s hope this one overachieves in the rain department. The last one overachieved across the eastern half of our region. We need the rain.
The cold front will exit our region late on Wednesday and that will leave us with clearing sky conditions by Wednesday afternoon and night. Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will average near normal to a bit above normal. We might also have breezy conditions on both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Let’s take a look at some of the wind gusts. These are in knots.
This image is for 6 pm on Tuesday. Gusty winds possible as the storm system approaches our region.
This image is for 12 am on Wednesday. Gusty winds possible in our local area.
This image is for 12 pm on Wednesday. You can see the stronger winds are pushing off to our east.
Thursday:
Thursday should be a beautiful day. Autumn temperatures reaching into the 50’s. We should have mostly sunny sky conditions.
Thursday night through Sunday:
The EC guidance is attempting to bring a system into our region on Thursday night and Friday morning. This would approach from the northwest. It shows some showers developing as a result. This will need to be monitored. Right now, I will leave that time period dry.
Rain chances may increase again on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. That would occur as another storm system approaches from the west and southwest. Active pattern.
Another system is showing up for next Tuesday.
I am tracking several more storm systems into the second week of December. Perhaps we will have to start talking about snow, as well. Stay tuned.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain showers are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. NOAA is showing up to an inch of rain for some of our counties. Let’s hope!
Scale is on the right side of the image.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM.
GFS rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday event
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday event
Click image to enlarge
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Monday morning low temperatures
Temperatures might be a few degrees colder than shown.
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Monday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday through Saturday the 26th Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major adjustments in this forecast package.
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No significant concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
