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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? Not at this time.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Tuesday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching Tuesday.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
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November 19, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds. Breezy, at times. High fire danger. Avoid burning brush.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 66° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? High fire danger
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 48° MO 48° to 50° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 44 to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:22 AM
Moonset: 9:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 20, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds through the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday night Forecast: A few clouds. A slight chance of showers after midnight over the northern counties of southeast Missouri and far northern counties of southern Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° MO 45° to 50° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways north
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars late
Moonrise: 12:06 PM
Moonset: 10:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers over the northern half of southeast Missouri and most of southern Illinois. Odds favor northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% north 10% Bootheel IL ~ 60% north 30% south KY ~ 30% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 50° to 56° South IL 52° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly northern half of the region)
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways (mainly northern half of the region)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars (mainly northern half of the region)
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:43 PM
Moonset: 11:16 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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November 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers likely. A small chance of a thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 60° to 65°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. A small chance of lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers ending. Turning colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° MO 44° to 46° South IL 44° to 46° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming north northwest at 7 to 14 mph..
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 1:15 PM
Moonset: 6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Morning clouds. Decreasing clouds west to east. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 35° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:43 PM
Moonset: 12:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Breezy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° MO 38° to 42° South IL 38° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 16 mph becoming west at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:08 PM
Moonset: 1:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Cool. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ %
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:32 PM
Moonset: 2:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 27th: I am watching next Tuesday.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 18th
No major concerns.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Calm weather.
- Rain over the weekend.
- Watching next Monday night (late) into Tuesday night.
Beginning next week. ** NOTICE: BLOG UPDATES WILL NOW BE POSTED BETWEEN 4 PM and 8 PM. VIDEOS will updated during the AM hours (as always). **
High fire danger today. Burning brush is strongly discouraged.
Low humidity levels will combine with strong and gusty wind. This will help produce a higher than normal fire danger.
Quiet weather will continue into Friday night.
A frontal boundary will slip into the region late Friday night into Saturday night.
The trend has been further and further south with this boundary.
Showers will develop north of the boundary. The exact placement of the boundary is key to Saturday’s rain chances.
I have increased rain chances across Missouri and Illinois. I did mention lower chances for the Missouri Bootheel, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
It is possible that much of those areas will remain dry Saturday.
Rain chances increase area-wide late Saturday night into Sunday evening.
This will be in response to an incoming cold front.
Showers will overspread the region from west to east.
There is not much in the way of instability. Perhaps isolated lightning risk. No severe weather.
I have a widespread 0.5 to 1.0 rain event. NOAA has it a bit higher. Esp over MO/IL.
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Either way, this is a widespread rain event.
We should dry out Monday with only small rain chances.
Another system arrives late Monday night into Tuesday night.
We need to watch this one. There is at least some chance of severe weather.
For now, I am simply watching the severe weather potential. Plan on more showers and thunderstorms. Especially, Tuesday.
No extreme temperatures.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
No rain in the short range models.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 26th through December 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 32 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 27th through December 10th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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