Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? NO. I am going to monitor next Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday, as well. Another system pulls into the region during that time-frame.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? POSSIBLE. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night. Some locations could dip below freezing.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.
7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.
8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.
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Fire weather risk level.
Wednesday: 5. Medium risk.
Wednesday night: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.
Thursday night: 4. Low risk.
Friday: 4. Low risk.
Fire Weather Discussion
Dispersion today and Thursday will be very good to excellent with west to northwest winds gusting to around 30 mph both days. Humidity will drop into the 25-30% range this afternoon with mixing heights ranging from 5500 to 8000 feet. Humidity will be around 10-15% higher Thursday with mixing heights lowering to 4000-5500 feet. Small rain chances exist across portions of Illinois, Indiana, and far northwest Kentucky today and again Thursday. However, the chance for a wetting rain is very low until early next week.
A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.
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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
Scroll down to see your local forecast details.
Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video
Long Range Video
48-hour forecast Graphics
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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Cool. A slight chance of showers over mainly our northern and eastern counties. Lower chances southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (north and east)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 58°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 58°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 33° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 33° to 36
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: West 10 to 25 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:23 PM
Moonset: 11:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Cool. A slight chance of showers over mainly our northern and eastern counties. Lower chances southwest. Rain could mix with snow or graupel. No impacts or accumulation.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated over our northeast counties
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. More clouds over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky vs everywhere else. Chilly. A chance of an light shower or rain snow shower over mainly far southeast Illinois and far northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before 4 am
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:28 PM
Moonset: 12:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. More clouds over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. Less clouds as you travel southwest. Breezy. Chilly.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 30°
Southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 32°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 28° to 32°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:30 PM
Moonset: 12:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: South 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: –
Moonset: 1:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Becoming partly cloudy from west to east. Warmer.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A chance of a few showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mostly after 7 pm.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Light winds
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Moonrise: 12:25 AM
Moonset: 1:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- A few chilly days. Then, we warm back up to above average temperatures.
- Gusty winds today into Thursday night. Gusty winds early next week, as well.
- Some locations could dip below freezing over the coming nights. Peak chance of a freeze is Friday and Saturday night.
- Low-end chances of showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mainly over far southeast Illinois and far northwest Kentucky. Perhaps mixed with snow or graupel with no impact or accumulation. Chances are low.
Weather advice:
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways.
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Beau’s Forecast Discussion
Good day, everyone.
Well, yesterday was amazing with widespread 70s across the region. Another day with well above avereage temperatures.
It is cooler this morning. You will feel the difference as you leave for work this morning.
Chilly west northwest winds will make it feel colder today into Friday.
Highs today will mostly be in the 50s. That is near average. This will be the first day of November with average temperatures. Quite amazing. It has been so mild that people are still picking vegetables in their gardens. They are still mowing the yard!
It will remain chilly into Saturday, then a warming trend begins Sunday and Monday. As a matter of fact, some data shows near 70 by Monday. We will see if we can pop that high in the temperature department. Sixties are a sure bet.
We will have a mix of sun and clouds into Friday. A few more clouds over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Less clouds over southeast Missouri and the Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.
There are a couple of light showers on radart his morning over our far northern counties. Not much. That will pull off to the east early this morning.
Another system will dive into the region from the Great Lakes tomorrow and tomorrow night. It could bring a few light rain or rain/snow showers to southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
It will be too warm for any impacts or accumulation. Just a novelty event.
Here is the Hrrr future-cast radar. What radar might look like.
These maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
Double click images to enlarge them.
Here is the NAM 3K future-cast radar. What radar might look like.
There is a risk of freeze conditions Thursday and Friday night. A lower chance tonight.
Let’s look at the forecast lows. A wide range. Not uncommon to have a wide range even within one county. There can be cold favored locations that are several degrees colder.
Thursday morning
Friday morning
Saturday morning
Sunday morning
Friday morning
Freeze conditions means the temperature drops to 32 degrees or lower. A hard freeze would be 28 degrees or lower. I know many of you would like to stop mowing your grass. This is our best shot of the season, thus far.
I am watching another system Sunday into Tuesday. A few light showers will be possible.
Then, I have been watching a system next Wednesday and Thursday. The models have backed away from that system. They now show it arriving next Friday and Saturday. Thus, confidence in that event is low.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
Day One Severe Weather Outlook
Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day One High wind Probability Outlook
Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.
Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Regional Radar
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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