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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Sunday to Sunday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Monday into Monday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Unlikely. A few storms could produce gusty winds over mainly the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee. The risk of severe weather is small.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Not at this time.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Not at this time.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Sunday, November 19, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny the first half of the day. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming east southeast 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of late night light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 43° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast becoming southeast increasing to 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars late at night.
Moonrise: 12:35 PM
Moonset: 10:55 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, November 20, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Cloudy. A few morning showers. Then, showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening. Increasing coverage through the day from southwest to northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 90%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming more numerous as the day wears on
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B after 12 PM and monitor the radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the radars.
Moonrise: 1:08 PM
Moonset: — —
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday, November 21, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers (mainly before 12 PM). Turning colder late in the day behind the storm system with falling temperatures. Peak rain coverage will be early in the day. Then, decreasing coverage with spotty light rain and drizzle.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Tapering as the day wears on.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely the first half of the day.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 56° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 56° to 58°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 58° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of drizzle. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Before 11PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty early. Becoming north northwest 6 to 12 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:36 PM
Moonset: 12:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday, November 22, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: We will have to monitor cloud cover the first half of Wednesday. Clouds are sometimes slower to leave during the autumn months behind an area of low pressure. Partly sunny. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
Southeast Missouri ~ 25° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 26° to 30°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 26°
Southern Illinois ~ 26° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 28° to 30°
Far western Kentucky ~ 28° to 32°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 32°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 26° to 30°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 32°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:02 PM
Moonset: 1:18 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday, November 23, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 18 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 33° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 33° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:28 PM
Moonset: 2:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Friday, November 24, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 3. Medium.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 36°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:56 PM
Moonset: 3:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday, November 25, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 52° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 48° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 48° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 48° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 52° to 54°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 4:39 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 33° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:27 PM
Moonset: 4:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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- Beautiful day ahead of us (Sunday).
- Rain chances increase late tonight.
- Widespread rain Monday into Tuesday morning.
- Turning colder Tuesday.
- Dry and chilly Wednesday into Friday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
.Forecast Discussion
A nice day is on tap for the region.
Yes, we are waking up to cold temperatures.
Here are the 7 AM temperature snapshot from around the region. Brrr.
The good news is that temperatures will rapidly rebound into the 50s and even 60s by late morning into the afternoon hours!
Not bad for late November.
I do not have any snow or ice in the forecast. I know there have been plenty of rumors about that. I don’t know how many people have asked me about a Thanksgiving snowstorm! There is no truth in that.
We do have a widespread rain event over the coming 48 hours.
An area of low pressure will pass across our region Monday into Tuesday. This will bring quite a bit of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into our region.
The first half of tonight (Sunday night) will be dry. Shower chances will, however, increase late tonight into tomorrow morning.
Widespread rain is likely by Monday afternoon into Monday night. The rain will begin to taper from west to east Tuesday morning. Light rain or drizzle will be possible into Tuesday night.
Clouds may linger Wednesday morning, but then clearing is expected west to east.
I do expect a few thunderstorms to be embedded with the rain shield Monday into Monday night. The risk of severe weather is small.
The Storm Prediction Center did include southern portions of the Missouri Bootheel in the marginal risk for severe weather. This seems overdone, but I will keep an eye on it.
The only concern locally will be lightning.
Colder air will filter into the region Tuesday afternoon and night. It will feel like Thanksgiving with highs in the 40s/50s. Lows Thursday morning into the 20s/30s. No change to my forecast from a week ago!
I have been watching a rain event Friday into Saturday. Models have not been in agreement on this system. Occasionally they show dry conditions. Other runs show rain.
For now, I left Friday and Saturday dry. I will continue to monitor trends in case the system is a tad farther to the north. Worse care we add a few more clouds and perhaps a light shower to the forecast next weekend.
Let’s take a look at expected rain totals for this next event (Monday into Tuesday).
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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This animation is the NAM Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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