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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Look under the Daily Weather Summary tab. Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
For more information visit BeauDodsonWeather.com
Or directly sign up at Weathertalk.com
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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Winter storm forecasts will be posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Remember, a typical month costs me over $700 to provide you all of the data and forecasts. Your support is crucial. The winter storm forecasts can be found under the Daily Weather Summary tab.
Forecasts begin the week of Thanksgiving.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
November 18, 2016
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible (mainly before 12 am). Rain will come to an end from west to east Friday night. Turning sharply colder behind the cold front. Gusty winds, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Small risk for severe weather early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Higher gusts likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70% Rain ends from west to east on Friday evening, keep that in mind.
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread early in the night. Ending from west to east.
Is severe weather expected? A few evening thunderstorms could be intense. A small severe weather risk. High wind is the main concern.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible, especially early. Monitor radars.
Sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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November 19, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Much cooler. Breezy, at times. Below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Gusty winds possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: 25~30 degrees during the morning
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0% Rain should end before 4 am on Saturday morning.
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely no precipitation after sunrise.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Starry night.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22-26 degree range. Isolated colder spots possible.
Wind Chill: 20-26
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusty winds are a possibility before 7 pm. Winds lessening after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 20, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph with some gusts above 10 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 3
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Cold with below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25-30 degree range. I am struggling with the low temperatures on Sunday night. This may need to be adjusted. Some data indicates colder readings.
Wind Chill: 24-28 degrees
Winds: Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 21, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny and not as cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m. Last Quarter.
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some high clouds after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 22, 2016
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Breezy, at times. Warmer. Perhaps a few showers over southeast Missouri during the afternoon hours. Tuesday may end up dry. Will be watching an incoming system from the west and southwest.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (low confidence, because rain may hold off until Tuesday night)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Chilly showers likely. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Gusts above 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming widespread
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Quite a few clouds. Showers possible. Perhaps most likely during the morning. Cool. Clearing possible during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40% (mostly during the morning hours)
Coverage of precipitation? At least scattered. Perhaps mainly during the morning hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Will monitor for fog.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny. Nice day anticipated.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Clear and cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 0-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Some clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Probably none
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. Perhaps some showers. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 27, 2016
Sunday: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 4:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:55 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Sunday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 28, 2016
Monday: Some clouds. A shower possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 5:47 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:31 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Monday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 29, 2016
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 50-55 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 p.m. New Moon.
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Tuesday Night: Some clouds. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 30, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:37 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 7:33 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:55 p.m. Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear and cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25-30 degree range.
Wind Chill:
Winds:
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Rain ending Friday night
- Brrrr for the weekend (coat weather)
- More rain next week?
- Thanksgiving weather is shaping up to be nice
- Beau’s 25 Days of Holiday Giving begins December 1st! Watch for details.
Well, it finally is raining. At least a little bit. Rain will come to an end this evening (Friday evening). Most of the rain should be east of our region by 10 pm. Some of the models hang up the precipitation a bit longer over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
If you are heading out to a ballgame this evening then I would suggest taking a towel and a coat. Might need the towel to dry off the bleachers. It also will likely still be raining over portions of the region. Chilly rain, as well.
Southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois should be dry early in the evening. Rain will then exit from west to east as the night wears on.
Lightning is possible into Friday evening. I couple of strong storms, as well. The overall severe weather risk is minimal, but not zero. The main concern would be for gusty winds in thunderstorms/showers.
Much colder air will arrive behind the cold front. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be at least 20 degrees colder than they were on Friday morning.
Here is the 24 hour temperature change map. How many degrees colder will Saturday morning be when compared with Friday morning?
Click the image to enlarge
Dry weather is anticipated Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday should remain in the 40’s. Chilly. The coldest days of the autumn season, thus far. Breezy, at times. The wind will make it feel a little bit colder.
Another system will approach our region by Tuesday afternoon or night. This system is weaker than the one that passed through the area on Friday/Friday night. It should have just enough moisture, however, to produce at least some scattered showers. Let’s keep an eye on it. It should be too warm for snow or ice.
We should have some scattered showers into Wednesday.
Here is what the GFS model is showing for the Tuesday and Wednesday event.
This image is for Tuesday evening at 6 pm. You can see the green colors. That represents rain. The blue colors represent snow. The area of low pressure is centered over Iowa. Cold front trails from the low back into eastern Oklahoma. Still a few days to monitor the timing of this front.
Click images to enlarge
This next image is for Wednesday morning at 12 am.
This next image is for 6 am on Wednesday.
This next image is for 12 noon on Wednesday. Again, the timing on this model could be off a bit. Too soon for certainty. I feel confident there will be another cold front push through the area. Not as confident on exact timing.
Dry weather is anticipated for Thanksgiving! I hope all of you have some nice holiday plans? Friends and family.
Thanksgiving day high temperatures will probably remain in the 50’s. Cool, but not too bad for late November.
I am monitoring another system for late next week. Guidance is all over the place with some rain chances on Friday or Saturday. Confidence is low. Monitor updates.
GFS shows yet another system around the 27th/28th of November. GFS is too warm for snow or ice. Winter storm season will be underway by then.
And, yet another system around December 1st. Active pattern developing? Looks that way. No snow, yet.
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain will come to an end on Friday night.
Another rain event is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Right now the system looks a little starved for moisture. Perhaps some light showers Tuesday night/Wednesday. Most of Tuesday may remain dry. I will need to monitor the trends on how fast the system enters our region.
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM. These are rainfall totals for the Tuesday/Wednesday system.
GFS rainfall totals
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals
Click image to enlarge
Saturday morning low temperatures
Temperatures could be a few degrees colder than shown.
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Saturday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible early in the evening. I can’t rule out gusty winds with some storms. The overall severe weather threat appears minimal, but not zero.
Saturday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major adjustments.
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No significant concerns. A few storms possible Friday evening. Weekend should be dry.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
