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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear early. Perhaps some increasing clouds late. A small chance for a shower after 3 am for southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Precipitation should hold off until Friday. Small chance late Thursday night over southeast Missouri (towards Poplar Bluff).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southerly at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph (perhaps a little higher before 10 pm)
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will monitor southern Missouri after 3 am for a few showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
November 18, 2016
Friday: Increasingly cloudy sky conditions. Mild. Windy, at times. Showers and thunderstorms developing as the day wears on. Some storms could be strong. Precipitation will move in from the west. Mild. Best chance of precipitation would be late morning into the evening hours. A few storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds. Tornado risk is small, but not zero. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Lightning. Brief downpours. There is a small risk for severe thunderstorms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts above 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated before 9 am and then becoming scattered to widespread through the late morning into the afternoon/evening hours. Moving in from the west.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a couple of storms to become severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Consider a plan B. I would suggest monitoring radars. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible (mainly before 12 am). Rain will come to an end from west to east Friday night. Turning sharply colder behind the cold front. Gusty winds, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Small risk for severe weather early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Higher gusts likely.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70% Rain ends from west to east on Friday evening, keep that in mind.
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread early in the night. Ending from west to east.
Is severe weather expected? A few evening thunderstorms could be intense. A small severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible, especially early. Monitor radars.
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November 19, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps some morning clouds. Any remaining showers over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky should end before 4 am. Becoming mostly sunny with patchy clouds. Much cooler. Breezy, at times. Below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Gusty winds possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: 25~30 degrees during the morning
Winds: Northwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0% Rain should end before 4 am on Saturday morning.
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely no precipitation after sunrise.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Starry night.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22-26 degree range. Isolated colder spots possible.
Wind Chill: 20-26
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusty winds are a possibility before 7 pm. Winds lessening after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 20, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph before 12 pm. Winds becoming more west and northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 3
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Colder with below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 24-28
Winds: West and northwest at 5 mph winds may become southwest late at night.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 21, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny and not as cool.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m. Last Quarter.
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some high clouds after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 22, 2016
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Breezy, at times. Perhaps some showers developing from the west/southwest during the afternoon hours. Low confidence in the timing of the next system.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (low confidence, because rain may hold off longer)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 58-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Chilly showers possible. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Gusts above 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 50% . TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Quite a few clouds. Showers possible. Cool. Low confidence on timing of the precipitation for Tuesday/Wednesday. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-62 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Some clouds. Showers ending. Clearing. Cooler.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Clear and cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower. Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Some clouds. Monitoring another storm system. Showers possible.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 35-40 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. Perhaps some showers. Low confidence.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Clearing. Cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Here comes the cold front!
- Showers and storms Friday/Friday night
- Dry and chilly Saturday and Sunday
- Another rain maker next week! Let’s hope.
We need rain. We are about to receive some. Not enough, but some.
Thursday night will deliver one more mild night to the region. Lows should remain in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. WELL above normal. Normal low temperatures are in the upper 30’s.
There will be an increase in clouds after midnight. Friday will deliver quite a few clouds, gusty winds, and an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be on the strong side.
Breezy conditions will continue into Saturday evening. Gusts above 30 mph will be possible from time to time. This is because of the tight pressure gradient between the high pressure to our east/southeast and the low well to our north.
Here is the NAM guidance for winds. Keep in mind, gusts will be higher.
This first image is for 12 pm on Friday
The scale is at the bottom of the page. Much stronger winds closer to the area of low pressure over Iowa. Gusty winds in our region.
This next image is for 9 pm on Friday
This next image is for 3 am on Saturday
This next image is for 3 pm on Saturday
The bottom line is that some gusty winds will be with us over the coming days. Chilly wind on Saturday into Sunday. Wind chill temperatures might be five to ten degrees colder than actual surface temperatures.
Friday’s rain event
A cold front will push into southeast Missouri on Friday morning and afternoon. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front. Wind shear will be strong, dew points will be high, as well. The missing ingredient for widespread/organized severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is CAPE. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere. Without CAPE you typically are not going to have severe storms.
CAPE number should range from 50 to 250. Minimal. If CAPE numbers are higher than forecast then damaging winds and isolated brief tornadoes will be a possibility. Thus, monitor updates on Friday into Friday evening. I can’t rule out some strong storms embedded in the rain shield.
The best chance for stronger storms will probably be over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, extreme western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, and parts of western Tennessee. A marginal risk for a few severe thunderstorms. Confidence is low.
The rain will move from southwest to northeast and from west to east.
Rain should end by late Friday night into the early morning hours of Saturday.
Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.60″ are anticipated. Pockets of locally heavier totals can’t be ruled out. Some counties may not receive as much (as usual for events like this). Let’s hope this system pans out. We have not had much luck with the last few systems. It seems like they produce less rain than the guidance indicates. Sometimes that happens during drought conditions.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Here is the NAM model guidance and how it handles the cold front. Timing is a rough estimate. The front should enter southeast Missouri during the morning hours and exit the Pennyrile during the evening hours.
This is the 12 pm time frame. You can see a band of showers and perhaps thunderstorms moving from west to east through the region.
Keep in mind, the timing could be off by a couple of hours. This is just the NAM’s opinion on timing. It seems to fit the general idea.
These images show you future-cast radar.
This next image is for 3 pm
This next image is for 6 pm. Notice the heavier returns on radar. Perhaps some gusty thunderstorms. Severe weather risk is low, but not zero.
This next image is for 9 pm Friday.
This next image is for 12 am Saturday morning. Rain is exiting our region.
Much cooler air will arrive on gusty winds late Friday night into the weekend. Lows by Saturday morning will dip into the upper 30’s. Highs on Saturday may remain in the 40’s. Highs on Sunday should pop into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. Chilly weekend.
Dry weather both Saturday and Sunday.
Another storm system will approach from the southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional showers will be possible during that time frame. A bit too soon to know if thunderstorms will be in the cards. Monitor updates.
Here is what the GFS is showing for the system on Tuesday/Wednesday.
The GFS shows most of the precipitation occurring on Wednesday. Other models show it arriving on Tuesday and Tuesday night. I will need to fine tune that part of the forecast.
Another precipitation maker is showing up towards next Friday and Saturday. Long way off and plenty of time to monitor. Perhaps we are finally entering a more active pattern. Let’s hope. We need rain.
Here is what the GFS shows for that system. No snow or ice. Looks to be too warm for frozen precipitation. This image is for next Friday around 12 pm. Long way off.
At this time, Thanksgiving is shaping up to be dry. I will keep an eye on the mid-week and late week system in case the timing changes on either one of them. Temperatures on Thanksgiving will probably be in the 50’s. Decent autumn day.
Winter storm season will begin next week. I will start issuing winter storm forecasts soon.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
Rain is likely on Friday into Friday night. I am hoping everyone will pick up at least some measurable rain. This is not a drought-buster. It might be enough to help the brush fire situation.
Rainfall totals of 0.25″ to 0.60″ are possible. Totals will vary considerably.
Here is the official WPC/NOAA forecast map
Click image to enlarge
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM. These are rainfall totals for the Friday system.
GFS rainfall totals
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals
Click image to enlarge
Check out the NAM and WRF models. They are not showing as much.
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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Temperatures might even fall a few more degrees after sunrise. Cold air advancing into the region behind the front.
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Saturday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Sunday morning low temperatures
Lows might be colder than this.
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Sunday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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Regional Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday into Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible as a cold front nears the region. I can’t rule out strong storms. There are parameters available for rotating storms. Damaging winds, as well. The one missing ingredient would be CAPE. If CAPE numbers are a bit higher then severe weather will be a possibility. CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere. Bottom line, some strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates on Friday and Friday evening.
Saturday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major adjustments.
I am monitoring Friday and Friday night for a few strong thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
