November 17, 2024: Rain returns to the forecast. Chilly temperatures later this week.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? ISOLATED. A chance of isolated lightning Monday/Monday night.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? MONITOR. Temperatures will be colder towards the end of next week. Not quite sure we did below freezing, but monitor updates.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Want to add more products to your WeatherTalk account? Receive daily videos, blog updates, your counties weather forecast, and more!

Here is how to do that!

If you have not updated your WeatherTalk payment, then please do so.

We still have several expired credit cards.

Here is how to fix that.

Here is a video on how to update your payment.

Fire weather risk level.

Saturday: 3. Very low risk.
Saturday night: 2. Very low risk.
Sunday: 3. Very low risk.
Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Monday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Mild southerly flow will increase today through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Relative humidity values will remain elevated with the lowest daytime values around 50-60%. Rain chances will increase tonight into Monday across southeast MO and southwest IL, spreading eastward Monday night through Tuesday morning across the rest of the region. Scattered showers and much cooler weather is expected from Wednesday through the end of the week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video

Long Range Video

48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: .
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
.

Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly after 12 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
Southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~52° to 54°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 52° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 56° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:05 PM
Moonset: 8:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Mainly over Missouri and Illinois. Lower chances as you travel east.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered west. None far east.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 20 mph. Gusts above 25 mph over MO and IL.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
.

Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 90%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 56° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:08 PM
Moonset: 9:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers over our eastern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (east)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways (east).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
.

Tuesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:15 PM
Moonset: 10:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Cool. A chance of showers over mainly our northern and eastern counties. Lower chances southwest.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered (mainly north and east)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 55°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Chilly. A chance of showers over mainly our northern and eastern counties. Rain could mix with snow or graupel with no accumulation or impacts.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly north and east)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 36° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: West 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:23 PM
Moonset: 11:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Cool. A chance of showers over mainly our northern and eastern counties. Lower chances southwest. Rain could mix with graupel.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
.

Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Chilly. A chance of showers over mainly our northern and eastern counties. Rain could mix with snow or graupel with no accumulation or impacts.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (mainly northeast and east)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 36°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 36
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 36°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 36°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:28 PM
Moonset: 12:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy. Chilly. A slight chance of showers over mainly our northeastern and eastern counties. Showers could be mixed with graupel. No impacts.

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
.

Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
Southeast Missouri ~ 32° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 32° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 32° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:30 PM
Moonset: 12:37 PM
The phase of the moon: Las Quarter

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Mild today through Tuesday. Well above average temperatures.
2. Scattered showers tonight into Monday night. Peak chances will be Monday and Monday night.
3. A second system will bring colder air into the region mid to late week.
4. Scattered showers Wednesday into Friday. Rain could mix with snow or graupel over southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. No impacts.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.

We also have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning polygon. If you are outside the polygon it will not disturb you.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service here.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I hope you are having a nice weekend.

We are waking up to cool temperatures. A wide range of temperatures. Clouds make the difference when it comes to low temperatures.

7 AM temperatures.

We have mild weather on the way today through Tuesday.

Temperatures will be above to well above seasonal averages. Average highs for this time of the year are in the 50s. Normal lows are in the 30s.

We will be well above that today. Some locations could hit 70 degrees. Many stations will hit 70 degrees Monday and Tuesday.

That will occur ahead of a strong cold front that will push through the region later this week.

That front will bring increasing shower chances to the region. A few showers are possible tonight into Monday morning.

Increasing chances Monday afternoon and night. Becoming widespread Monday night.

Let’s look at two models. The Hrrr and the NAM 3k.

Time stamp is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm. 06z=12 am.

Hrrr future-cast radar. What radar might look like with the cold front.

NAM 3K future-cast radar. What radar might look like with the cold front.

Rain totals are expected to be on the low side. 0.01″ to 0.30″. Not much.

Here is the official NWS rainfall forecast. This is for the entire week (through Friday).

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Gusty winds will develop today and linger into Friday. Occasional gusts above 30 mph. This will make it feel colder mid to late week with wind chill values in the 20s and 30s.

A stronger cold front will usher in the coldest air of November, thus far. That will occur Wednesday into the weekend.

I am still skeptical of a hard freeze. I am closely monitoring it. If that were to occur it would like be Friday night or over the weekend.

I know many of you are still mowing your yards! Crazy to be mowing in the middle of November, but here we are.

Every single day of November has been above average in the temperature department.

The red zone is how much above average temperatures have been. Quite amazing!

We have broken a record at the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS for the latest 32 degree reading. The old record was set back in the 1970s and was November 13th. We have blown that out of the water.

Perhaps later this week we will have another chance at reaching 32 degrees.

The NWS blend model gets us close. Northern counties will have a higher chance of dipping to freezing later this week.

This model takes Paducah down into the lower 30s Friday and Saturday night.

Here is Mount Vernon, Illinois. It does take that area below freezing next weekend.

Poplar Bluff, Missouri is close to freezing.

The mid to late week system will bring a chance of wrap around showers. Chilly showers. Brisk winds. It is going to feel like late autumn later this week.

Peak rain chances Wednesday through Thursday night will be over our northern and eastern counties.

It might be cold enough for the rain to mix with snow or graupel. No impacts. No accumulation. Novelty, if it occurs.

Here is the EC model showing that wrap around precipitation mid to late week.

The chance of precipitation will be higher over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky. Lower chances over Missouri and Tennessee. See the daily forecast at the top of the blog.

Both the GFS and EC bring another system into the region next Sunday.

Perhaps some rain showers Sunday or Monday. I am still monitoring that system. Timing is in question. Strength, as well.

EC model. It shows a few showers next Sunday and Monday.

The GFS is a much stronger system. I will monitor trends.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
..

_______________________________________

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.