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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 16, 2016
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Mild for November. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:40 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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November 17, 2016
Thursday: High fire danger. Mostly sunny. Mild. Breezy, at times. Well above normal temperatures. Near record high temperatures.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-84 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 3-5
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear early. Perhaps some increasing clouds late. A small chance for a shower after 3 am for southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Precipitation should hold off until Friday. Small chance late Thursday night over southeast Missouri (towards Poplar Bluff).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southerly at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph (perhaps a little higher before 10 pm)
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will monitor southern Missouri after 3 am for a few showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 18, 2016
Friday: Increasingly cloudy sky conditions. Mild. Windy, at times. Showers and thunderstorms developing as the day wears on. Precipitation will move in from the west. Mild. Best chance of precipitation would be late morning into the evening hours. A few storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds. Tornado risk is small, but not zero. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds. Lightning. Brief downpours. There is a small risk for severe thunderstorms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts above 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated before 9 am and then becoming scattered to widespread through the late morning into the afternoon/evening hours. Moving in from the west.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for a couple of storms to become severe. Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Consider a plan B. I would suggest monitoring radars. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 1-2
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible (mainly before 2 am). Rain will come to an end from west to east Friday night. Turning colder behind the cold front. Gusty winds, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds. Small risk for severe weather early in the evening.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 8-16 mph. Higher gusts likely. Winds becoming west and northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread early in the night. Ending from west to east.
Is severe weather expected? A few evening thunderstorms could be intense. A small severe weather risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible. Monitor radars.
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November 19, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps some morning clouds. Any remaining showers over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky will end before 7 am. Becoming mostly sunny with patchy clouds. Cooler. Breezy, at times. Below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Gusty winds possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: 38~44 degrees
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 0% Rain should end before 8 am on Saturday morning.
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely no precipitation after sunrise. Small chance of precipitation remaining over our extreme eastern counties.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Starry night.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 25-30 degree range. Isolated colder spots possible.
Wind Chill: 23-28
Winds: North and northwest at 7-14 mph. Gusty winds are a possibility. Winds lessening after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 20, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph before 12 pm. Winds becoming more west and northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 3
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Colder with below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: 24-28
Winds: West and northwest at 5 mph winds may become southwest late at night.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 21, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny and cool. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m. Last Quarter.
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some high clouds after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 32-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 22, 2016
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Breezy, at times. Perhaps some showers developing from the west/southwest. Low confidence in the timing of the next system.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (low confidence, because rain may hold off longer)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 7-14 mph. Gusts above 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Cloudy. Showers possible. Low confidence on timing of the precipitation for Tuesday/Wednesday. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Some clouds. Showers ending. Cooler.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Clear and cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 25, 2016
Black Friday Shopping Day
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:50 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Friday Night: Some clouds. Monitoring another storm system.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 26, 2016
Saturday: Partly sunny. Monitoring another storm system.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:38 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 3:58 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:22 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Saturday Night: Some clouds.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Near record highs for Thursday
- Strong cold front arrives on Friday and Friday night
- Below normal temperatures Saturday through Monday
- Another rain maker next week
- Burn bans continue to many of our local counties
Wow, the warm weather continues. If you love spring weather then you must have loved the past few days. Yes, a bit chilly during the morning hours, but beautiful afternoons.
The weather is about to take a turn towards winter. At least temperature wise. Much colder air arrives Friday night into Sunday night.
First, we will continue to have warm temperatures into Friday evening. As a matter of fact, near record highs are possible on Thursday afternoon. You can expect widespread upper 70’s to perhaps lower 80’s. WELL above normal. How many degrees above normal? Let’s take a look.
Here are the temperature anomalies for Thursday. Anomalies show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be.
Normal high temperatures are in the middle to upper 50’s. Normal low temperatures are in the middle to upper 30’s.
Here is the Thursday high temperature anomaly map. Those are some big numbers.
Here are the Friday anomalies. Notice the lower readings to our west? That is because a cold front is advancing through Missouri. Colder air will push into the region by Friday night and Saturday morning. You will feel the difference.
Here comes the change. This is the temperature anomaly map for Saturday. Below normal temperatures.
Again, these are not actual temperatures. This map shows you how many degrees below normal temperatures will be.
I am anticipating showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front on Friday into Friday night. A few of the storms could be on the strong side. If CAPE numbers were higher then I would be more concerned about severe weather. At this time, the severe weather risk appears small, but not zero. There will be a risk for at least a couple of storms to produce high winds. The tornado threat is low, but not zero. Again, if the CAPE (energy) numbers are higher then the concerns will increase.
Here are the forecasted CAPE numbers for Friday. Not much showing up in the charts. It would only take a few hundred joules to cause problems. Thus, let’s keep an eye on it.
Dew points will also be on the rise. Normally I look for dew points of 58 degrees and above when forecasting severe weather. This is especially true during the cold season.
Here is the dew point map. Notice the pooling of higher dew points ahead of the cold front. There is a tongue of 60+ readings. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the lower atmosphere.
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Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar images for this event. The green colors represent showers.
Keep in mind that the exact timing of the front will need to be monitored. If the front were to speed up by six hours then these maps would need to be adjusted. A fairly narrow band of precipitation along the front.
This first graphic is for 12 pm on Friday. You can see the band of showers and thunderstorms from Illinois and Iowa into Missouri and Arkansas. Perhaps a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms.
This next image is for 6 pm on Friday evening.
This next image is for midnight on Saturday morning (late Friday night). You can see the band continues to move through the region.
This next image is for 6 am on Saturday morning. The rain should be over by then.
Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar on the NAM model.
I am a little concerned by the lack of rainfall from the NAM. We need this rain.
This is the 3 pm Friday time-frame.
This next image is for 6 pm on Friday. A band of showers and storms moving eastward through the region. Again, the timing may need adjusting.
This last image is for 9 pm on Friday. Rain is on the way out of the area.
Another storm system is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. That system will also be a rain maker. There might be some chilly temperatures with that rain event. The precipitation should remain liquid with this event. Snow or ice might occur further north in Iowa and northern Illinois.
Here are the rainfall totals for the next system (perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday of next week)
We have several days to monitor next weeks system. I am not overly confident on the exact timing of the rain. Models have been waffling on Tuesday vs Wednesday. It does appear that rain is a good bet. It is just the timing that needs to be worked out.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
I am monitoring a storm system for Friday into Friday night. It does appear that measurable rain is likely during this time frame.
Here is the official WPC/NOAA forecast map
This is for the weekend system only
Click image to enlarge
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM. These are rainfall totals for the Friday system.
GFS rainfall totals
Click image to enlarge
GEM rainfall totals
Click image to enlarge
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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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Friday afternoon temperatures at 4 pm
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night through Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday into Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible as a cold front nears the region. I can’t rule out strong storms. There are parameters available for rotating storms. Damaging winds, as well. The one missing ingredient would be CAPE. If CAPE numbers are a bit higher then severe weather will be a possibility. CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere.
Saturday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major adjustments.
I am monitoring Friday and Friday night for a few strong thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
