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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Wednesday night/Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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November 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Some morning clouds. Clearing through the day. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° / SE MO 54° to 58° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° / South IL 55° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 58° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Low.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 45° / South IL 40° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° / West KY 40° to 45° / NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:09 PM
Moonset: 2:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 16, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° / West KY 70° to 74° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:33 PM
Moonset: 3:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 17, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers. Showers will develop west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 68° to 72° / NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. A slight chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 90% / the rest of SE MO ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / the rest of South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 40° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west/northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 3:59 PM
Moonset: 4:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 18, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy early. Some clearing during the day. A chance of morning showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly during the morning
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 48° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Becoming mostly clear. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 30° / SE MO 24° to 28° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 24° to 28° / South IL 24° to 28° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 25° to 30° / West KY 25° to 30° / NW TN 25° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 24° to 30°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:26 PM
Moonset: 5:51 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 19, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 46° to 50° / South IL 46° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 50° / West KY 48° to 50° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:58 PM
Moonset: 6:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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November 20, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 50° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:39 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 35° to 40° / SE MO 35° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 35° to 40° / South IL 35° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 35° to 40° / West KY 35° to 40° / NW TN 35° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 5:35 PM
Moonset: 7:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through November 22nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warming trend (briefly).
- Gusty winds.
- Shower chances Wednesday/Thursday.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
A fairly tranquil weather pattern across the central United States. Our last big weather event was the tornado outbreak a couple of weeks ago.
Today will deliver some morning clouds over the eastern half of the region. Those clouds should be departing over the coming hours.
Dry weather today through Tuesday night.
Tuesday will be quite a bit warmer. If we can hold off on the clouds, then highs will approach 70 degrees! A couple of models develop low clouds Tuesday. This will need to be monitored. If that happens then temperatures would be several degrees lower.
The best chance of clouds developing would be over western Tennessee and Kentucky.
A cold front will advance towards our region Wednesday afternoon and night. A few showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The rest of the region should remain dry.
You can see those scattered showers on this future-cast radar. Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will be warm ahead of the cold front Wednesday. Expect widespread upper 60s to lower 70s. Gusty southerly winds could top 30 mph in some counties, as well. That would occur ahead of the cold front, as well.
Widespread rain is likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning area-wide. A rumble of thunder will be possible, as well.
Rain totals will likely range from 0.25″ to 0.50″ with pockets of higher totals. A few models show up to an inch of rain, but that would likely be the outlier numbers.
We dry out west to east Thursday morning. Lingering showers over Kentucky and Tennessee will be possible Thursday morning. Perhaps southeast Illinois, as well.
You can see those lingering showers on this future-cast radar. This is Thursday morning at 6 am.
Dry weather is expected Thursday afternoon through Friday night.
Some weak disturbances will pass through the region Saturday and Sunday. These disturbances will bring some clouds and patchy light rain showers.
It appears temperatures should be warm enough for all rain. It will be chilly over the weekend.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 15th through November 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers November 22nd through November 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 36 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 26th through December 9th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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