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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 14, 2016
Monday Night: Quite a few clouds. Not as cold. A few showers possible. Small chance for lightning before 9 pm. Isolated rainfall totals of 0.10″.
What impact is expected? Perhaps isolated wet roadways. Isolated evening lightning possible. Best chance of that would be over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: A few morning clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. Mild with above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range. Mild.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 00%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. A little cooler. Near normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 16, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Variable at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:43 p.m.
UV Index: 3-4
Moonrise will be at 7:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:40 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Mild for November. Well above normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 2-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 17, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Mild. Well above normal temperatures. Near record high temperatures.
What impact is expected? None. Burn bans in effect for many areas.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 4-6
Moonrise will be at 8:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:43 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds late. A small chance for a shower after 3 am for southeast Missouri.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Precipitation should hold off until Friday. Small chance late Thursday night over southeast Missouri (towards Poplar Bluff).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-56 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southerly at 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will monitor southern Missouri after 3 am for a few showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 18, 2016
Friday: Increasingly cloudy sky conditions. Showers and perhaps some thunderstorms developing as the day wears on. Precipitation will move in from the west. Mild. Well above normal temperatures. Windy, at times. I will need to monitor the timing of the cold front.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps some lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 66-74 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 70%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated before 7 am and then becoming scattered to widespread through the late morning into the afternoon hours.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Consider a plan B. I would suggest monitoring radars. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:42 p.m.
UV Index: 0-2
Moonrise will be at 9:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Rain will come to an end from west to east Friday night. Turning colder behind the cold front. Gusty winds, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Perhaps some lightning. Gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 8-16 mph. Higher gusts likely. Winds becoming west and northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps widespread.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Rain is possible. Monitor radars.
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November 19, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps some morning clouds. Any remaining showers over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky will end before 8 am. Becoming mostly sunny with patchy clouds. Cooler. Breezy, at times. Below normal temperatures. Cool with the gusty winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways (rain should end late Friday night or early Saturday morning)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: 42~46 degrees
Winds: West and northwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 10% Rain should end before 8 am on Saturday morning.
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely no precipitation after sunrise. Small chance of precipitation remaining over our extreme eastern counties.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 10:15 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:26 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Starry night.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 26-34 degree range.
Wind Chill: 24~32
Winds: North and northwest at 7-14 mph. Gusty winds are a possibility. Winds lessening after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 20, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cool. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph before 12 pm. Winds becoming more west and northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:41 p.m.
UV Index: 3
Moonrise will be at 11:16 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Colder with below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 22-26 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and northwest at 5 mph winds may become southwest late at night.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 21, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny and cool. Well below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 46-52 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 12:44 p.m. Last Quarter.
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Monday Night: Mostly clear. Perhaps some high clouds after midnight. Not as cold as recent nights.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some forecast adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 22, 2016
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. Showers possible during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph. Gusty, at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:40 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 12:15 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:18 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Showers possible. Breezy, at times.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 23, 2016
Wednesday: Cloudy. Showers possible early. Low confidence on timing of the precipitation for Tuesday/Wednesday. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph. Winds becoming west at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 1:12 a.m. and moonset will be at 1:49 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Clearing. Cooler.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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November 24, 2016
Thanksgiving
Thursday: Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 60-65 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 6:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:39 p.m.
UV Index: 2-3
Moonrise will be at 2:08 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:19 p.m. Waning crescent.
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Thursday Night: Clear and cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-35 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Calm Tuesday through Thursday night
- Strong cold front on Friday/Friday night
- Much cooler for the weekend
A disturbance will pass through the area Monday night. Some clouds and spotty showers possible. Calm weather is anticipated Tuesday through Thursday night. Temperatures will be well above normal through Friday night.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees and normal low temperatures are in the upper 30’s.
You can expect Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday high temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 60’s. I can’t rule out some 70’s on Wednesday and Thursday. Perhaps Friday, as well. Very warm for November. By now you should be used to the warmer than normal temperatures. An odd autumn.
One wonders if eventually we might pay for all of this mild air. Nature has a way of balancing out anomalies.
Here are temperature anomalies for Tuesday through Friday. Red indicates above normal temperatures.
Tuesday temperature anomalies
Wednesday temperature anomalies
Thursday temperature anomalies
Friday temperature anomalies. Warm ahead of the cold front.
A strong cold front will push into the region Friday into Saturday morning. This front will be accompanied by gusty winds, warm temperatures, showers, and a few thunderstorms. The severe weather risk, at this time, appears small. Monitor updates, as always. If more CAPE develops then severe weather would be a possibility. CAPE is a measure of energy for thunderstorms to tap into.
Here is the surface map for Friday into Friday night
This first image is for Friday around 12 pm. Check out the snow over the northern plains. Strong winds could create near blizzard conditions. Blue indicates snow. Dark blue represents heavier snow.
You can see the band of showers and thunderstorms extending from the front. The band of precipitation stretches from Wisconsin into Missouri and Arkansas. The band of showers and thunderstorms will push eastward through the day into Friday night.
This next image is for 6 pm on Friday evening. I will need to monitor the timing.
Would not surprise me to see blizzard warnings in the cold sector of this storm system.
Green and dark green represent rain and storms.
This next image is for Friday night around 11 pm to 12 am on Saturday morning
This next image is for Saturday morning at 6 am. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the way out late Friday night/Saturday morning. Saturday should be mostly dry. Perhaps a few remaining showers over our eastern counties. Again, timing of the front will need to be monitored.
Gusty winds possible with the tight pressure gradient.
Gusty winds will be possible Friday into Sunday morning. Let’s take a look at the wind forecast map
The pink/purple colors represent winds gusting above 20 mph. This first map is for Friday evening.
This next map is for Saturday night
This next map is for Sunday morning at 6 am
Here is a snapshot of the northern plains. Blizzard? Possibly. This would be for Thursday and Friday.
Dark blue and pink represents heavy snow. Tight isobars will mean strong and gusty winds.
Here is the wind forecast for the same time period. Strong winds.
Much cooler air will arrive behind the cold front. Check out the GFS high temperatures for this coming Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Brrr! Well below normal temperatures.
High temperatures might remain in the 40’s Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Check out the difference between these two maps. These are temperature anomaly maps. Red represents above normal temperatures and blue represents below normal temperatures.
This first image is for Friday evening. MUCH above normal temperatures ahead of the cold front.
The scale is on the right. How many degrees above normal will temperatures be?
This next image is for Sunday afternoon. Look at the widespread blue and purple colors. Below normal temperatures behind the cold front.
I am monitoring another storm system for next Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Perhaps some showers and thunderstorms? Long way off and plenty of time to monitor.
November has been one for the books. MUCH above normal temperatures over most of North America. We will have to wait and see where it ranks. October ranked the 2nd/3rd warmest on record. Records go back to the 1880’s.
Here is the temperature anomaly map. This represents temperatures from November 1st through the 14th. Obviously it has been warmer than normal!
How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
I am monitoring a storm system for Friday into Friday night. It does appear that measurable rain is likely during this time frame.
Here is the official WPC/NOAA forecast map
Here are two models. The first one is the GFS and the second one is the GEM. These are rainfall totals for the weekend system.
GFS rainfall totals
GEM rainfall totals
GEM model guidance is more bullish than the GFS
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night through next Thursday night: Small chance for lightning Monday evening. Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday into Friday night: Thunderstorms are possible as a cold front nears the region. I can’t rule out strong storms. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Saturday the 19th through Wednesday the 22nd: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Adjusted temperatures for Saturday and Sunday.
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Monitoring a cold front for Friday. Storms possible. Right now the severe weather risk appears to be minimal.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
