Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 13, 2024: Interesting weather pattern ahead.

 

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  ISOLATED.  Isolated lightning is possible today and tonight.  I will monitor Sunday into the middle of next week.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.  I am monitoring a cold front early next week.  At this time, it is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED PROBLEMS.  There is a risk of flooding over western KY and northwest TN today and tonight.  Mainly in areas that received 2 to 5 inches of rain over the past week.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NOT AT THIS TIME.  I am monitoring windy conditions next week.     

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees?  NOT AT THIS TIME.

7.  Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.

8.  Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines  Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday: 3.  Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 2.  Very low risk.
Thursday: 3.   Very low risk.
Thursday night: 4.  Low risk.
Friday: 4.  Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Wetting rains arrive across the region today, with amounts ranging from a half inch to 2 inches across much of the area. Dry conditions return Thursday through much of the weekend. Another chance for rain arrives sometime early next week. Relative humidity values will largely remain above 45-50 percent every afternoon. The best day for smoke dispersion looks to be on Thursday when west-northwest winds increase along with decent mixing. Winds slacken some on Friday as high pressure moves across the area.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

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THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region.  Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

 

Beau’s Seven Day Outlook Video

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48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities).  Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what  year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today.  Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.



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Wednesday Forecast:   Increasing clouds ahead of a cold front.  Mild.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Chances are higher during the late morning/afternoon vs early morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 100%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%

Coverage of precipitation:   Widespread.
Timing of the precipitation:  Any given point of time.  Higher chances late AM and PM vs early AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°

Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 90%
Southern Illinois ~ 90%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  90%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%

Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.  More likely before midnight vs after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  45° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 45° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction:   West northwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:15 PM
Moonset: 3:46 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Thursday Forecast: Decreasing clouds.   Any remaining showers will push off to the east.  Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated/ending.
Timing of the precipitation: Before 9 AM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°

Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°

Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:   .
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°

Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°

Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.  Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 36°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°

Winds will be from this direction: Light south wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:24 PM
Moonset: 6:20  AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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Saturday Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:   .
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°

Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°

Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.   Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:10 PM
Moonset: 7:39 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Sunday Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%

Coverage of precipitation:   .
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°

Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°

Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Sunday  Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%

Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 8 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Southern Illinois ~ 46° to 50°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:05 PM
Moonset:  8:53 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Monday Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%

Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°

Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°

The Pennyrile area of western KY ~64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°

Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, bu tmonitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index:  2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:38 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Monday Night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri  ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%

Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
Southeast Missouri ~ 50° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 54°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 54°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 54°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~  50° to 54°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 54°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 54°

Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 7:08 PM
Moonset:  9:58 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

    1.    Wet weather today and tonight.  Widespread rain.  A large difference in rain totals from northwest to southeast.
    2.    Mostly average to above average temperatures the next seven days.
    3.    Another cold front early next week.  Showers and perhaps thunderstorm chances will increase along the front.
    4.    A sharp cold snap is possible towards the middle and end of next week.  Perhaps a hard freeze.

 

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good morning, everyone.

A cold front will push into the region today and tonight.  This will bring widespread rain into the region.

The rain will approach from the south.  Moving north northeast.

This is what the 5:30 AM radar looked like.

The bulk of the rain will arrive by late morning into the evening hours.  Then, the rain will taper as we move deeper into tonight.

Let’s look at the future-cast radar.  What radar might look like today.

The time stamp is located in the upper left hand side of the animation.  It is in Zulu time.

12z=6 am.  18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.  06z=12 am.

The Hrrr model

Double click on animations to enlarge them.

The NAM 3K model.  Both models are similar.

A rumble of thunder is possible, as well.  We do not expects severe weather.

Areas that received heavy rainfall over the past week could have some flooding issues.  That would mainly be across portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee.

Here are the rainfall totals from the past seven days.  This is what has already fallen.  See those heavier bands over Kentucky and Tennessee?  Those are the areas to watch for ponding of water, ditches flooding, sharp rises on creeks, and so on.  Double click the image to enlarge it.

Here is the excessive rainfall outlook for today.  The area of green will receive the heaviest rain totals.

Our northwest counties can expect the least amount of rain.  Likely in the 0.20″ to 0.50″ range.  Our central and eastern counties can expect 0.80″ to 1.60″ with pockets of higher totals possible.

Here is the latest WPC rainfall forecast.

Double click on images to enlarge them.

 

The area will dry out tomorrow into Sunday.

An interesting weather pattern next week.  Quite a few moving parts with the forecast.

Our next storm system will take shape to our west late in the weekend into next week.

This system is forecast to wind up into quite the winter storm for areas well to our north northwest.  It will bring a cold front into our region with showers and thunderstorms.

This will most likely occur Monday into Wednesday.  The exact timing of the front will need to be monitored.  Some data stalls the front or slows it down as it moves across our region.

Here is what the EC model is showing.  Double click the image to enlarge it.

The EC and GFS models linger this system in our region through much of next week.

I am finally forecasting a cold snap.

The coldest air will arrive towards the middle and end of next week.  Perhaps a hard freeze.

The GFS shows that cold air.  Red is above average temperatures.  Blue is below average.  We will have to see how long the cold air lingers.

It is too early to know if snow flurries will develop in our region.  Some data does show that.  At the very least it will turn colder.

Double click the animation to enlarge it.


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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables.  Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.  Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook.  Zoomed in on our region.

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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

 

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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

  1. The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
  2. The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

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What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data.  Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Green represents light rain.  Dark green represents moderate rain.  Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

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This  animation is the NAM Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the Hrrr Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the WRF Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the GFS Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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This  animation is the EC Model.

This graphic shows you what this particular model believes the radar may look like.  Each model may be a little different.  The more models that agree, the higher the confidence in the forecast outcome.

Green is rain.  Yellow and orange are heavier rain.  Pink is a wintry mix.  Blue is snow.  Dark blue is heavier snow.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1  PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1  AM

Double click images to enlarge them.

 

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.60″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson

2016-11-19_11-50-24

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