November 12, 2025: Warmer weather. A cold front next week.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 12th to November 19th

Current risk: NOT AT THIS TIME. MONITOR UPDATES.

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments: I will monitor one or two cold fronts next week. At this time, tornadoes are not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Monday through Wednesdaay of next week.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I am monitoring a system next Monday through Wednesday. I can’t rule out thunderstorms, but it is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO.

8. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO.

Here is the short-range concern meter.

A small chance of lightning today and tomorrow.

Here is the extended concern meter.

I will monitor the risk of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

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This afternoon

Forecast discussion

Warmer today. Warmer tomorrow and Friday.
Mild temperatures into the weekend.
The cold front continues to slow. It is now expected to arrive on Monday and Tuesday. Rain may linger into Wednesday.
It is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern next week.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

Today and tonight

It is a bit nicer this morning vs the last two mornings.

Here were the 5 am temperatures. Not too bad.

A decent day today. Warmer than the last two days. No weather concerns.

Today through Sunday

Dry conditions through Sunday afternoon.

A warming trend will continue into the weekend. The warmest day will likely be Saturday.

By Friday and Saturday, we will be back to 70 degrees or above!

Here is the EC model ensemble temperature mean. This is the average of over 100 model runs. You can see the warming trend.

I chose Paducah as the location, but this will be about the same area-wide.

Wednesday highs

Double-click images to enlarge these graphics

Thursday highs

Friday highs

Saturday highs

Sunday highs

Monday Highs

Monday through Wednesday

Our next cold front has again slowed. It now appears that it won’t arrive until Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

A cold front will push into the region on Monday and Tuesday. Lingering into Wednesday. This will bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern. For now, it appears that the severe risk will stay to our south. It is a bit early, so monitor updates moving forward. There could be adjustments in the severe weather placement. These autumn systems can be difficult to forecast in the long range.

We have already noticed that with the timing.

Currently, here are the expected rainfall totals for Monday through Wednesday.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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