November 12, 2024: Rain chances return Wednesday.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Wednesday for isolated lightning. I am monitoring Sunday and Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. A low risk of flooding over western KY and northwest TN Wednesday afternoon and night.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Tuesday: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday night: 4. Low risk.
Wednesday: 3. Very low risk.
Wednesday night: 3. Very low risk.
Thursday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Dry conditions will continue through tonight. Afternoon humidity levels this afternoon will be mostly in the 45-55% range, with dispersion being poor to fair. Wetting rains are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Outlook Video

Long Range Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Near to slightly above average temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool. Near normal temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:46 PM
Moonset: 2:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Chances are higher during the afternoon vs morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Higher chances PM vs AM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely before midnight vs after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Moonrise: 3:15 PM
Moonset: 3:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Any remaining showers will push off to the east. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: .
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 35° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:47 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: .
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Light south wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:24 PM
Moonset: 6:20 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Nice weather today and tomorrow.
2. Mostly average to above average temperatures the next seven days.
3. Patch fog at night tonight and tomorrow night.
4. Another cold front arrives Wednesday with a chance of showers.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice Veteran’s Day.

We have a quiet day of weather ahead of us. Mostly sunny sky conditions this morning. Perhaps some high clouds this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s. Close to seasonal averages. Perhaps a little above.

Let’s look at November, thus far.

Everything highlighted in light red indicates an above average temperature day. The number represents on many degrees above average. That is the high and low temperature combined.

The bright red 80 on November 3rd was a record high temperature.

Every single day has been above average, thus far. Some crazy anomalies, as well. Check out November 4th with temperatures 21 degrees above average! Impressive.

Tonight will be cool. Increasing clouds.

Our next cold front arrives in the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.

There will be a chance of some morning showers, but the bulk of the rain event will arrive Wednesday afternoon and night.

Widespread rain is likely. A few thunderstorms will be possible, as well. We do not expect severe weather. That is the good news. We should be thankful that we have not had severe weather with all this warm air.

This has been a tricky system. At one point it looked like it might move through the region dry, but over the last two days the rain totals have been increasing.

Rain totals will likely range from 0.50″ to 1.00″ across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. There will be higher totals over Kentucky and Tennessee. Perhaps 1.00″ to 2.00″. This could lead to some flooding concerns over Kentucky and Tennessee. Mainly in areas that received heavy rain over the past week.

Here is the latest NOAA rainfall outlook.

Double click images and animations to enlarge them.

Let’s take a look at the Hrrr and NAM 3K model future-cast radar. What radar might look like tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The time stamp is in Zulu.

12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Hrrr model

NAM 3K. Double click animation to enlarge it.

Rain chances will wind down Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Perhaps a small chance of a shower remaining over our far eastern counties early Thursday morning.

Temperatures today into the weekend will average near normal to above normal.

Average highs are in the 50s. Average lows are in the 30s.

I am watching another cold front Sunday into Tuesday of next week. The trend has been to slow this system down. I will monitor it.

I did include low end rain chances late in the weekend and early next week. I will need to fine tune that, as confidence in the final forecast increases. Monitor updates.

Where is all the cold air?

I know that it has been very warm over the past few weeks.

The guidance does show some chance of cold air in the long range. I don’t put a lot of faith in long range model data, but the GFS does show this.

Red is above average temperatures. Blue is below average. Let’s keep an eye on it. Perhaps we will finally get a hard freeze into the region. Some of you are still mowing yards! Crazy for the middle of November.

Dates are on the top of the animation.

I can say this. The GFS showed much colder air over the last few days. With each passing day it shows less and less cold. Is this a trend in the model or not? We will have to watch it.

Let me show you something.

This is yesterday’s run of the GFS model

Yesterday it showed a solid cold blast with well below average temperatures.

Then, this morning’s run showed this. Not nearly as cold.

Which run will be correct? Too soon to know. This is why I tell people to take models with a grain of salt in the long range. They can’t be trusted. They are not accurate.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.