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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Rain chances will VARY Saturday. See detailed forecast further down in today’s update
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Are accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
2. Is lightning in the forecast? Low chance. Isolated chance Saturday.
3. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
4. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
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November 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 62° NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. A period of clouds overnight moving west to east.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 42° MO 32° to 36° South IL 34° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 38° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:13 AM
Moonset: 3:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny AM. Perhaps some PM clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 55° to 60° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Increasing clouds from the west. A chance of showers after midnight (mainly MO/IL)
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 40° MO 32° to 35° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 34° to 38° NW TN 38° to 40°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars late
Moonrise: 4:26 AM
Moonset: 4:03 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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November 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 65° West KY 60° to 65° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts above 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. More numerous over Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky and Tennessee.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy before 3 AM. A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms. Windy, at times.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° MO 44° to 48° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 50° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Moonrise: 5:42 AM
Moonset: 4:39 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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November 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain. Falling temperatures. Windy early in the day.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 58° to 64° South IL 58° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: West at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 64°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 38° MO 32° to 35° South IL 32° to 35° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph early becoming west/northwest at 4 to 8 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 35°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:58 AM
Moonset: 5:21 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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November 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:36 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° MO 28° to 32° South IL 28° to 34° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° West KY 30° to 34° NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:13AM
Moonset: 6:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° SE MO 54° to 56° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° MO 32° to 34° South IL 33° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 33° to 36° West KY 33° to 36° NW TN 33° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 0 to 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:25 AM
Moonset: 7:04 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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The AM AG weather report will return in late winter and early spring (growing season return).
Please refer to the long range video until that time.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through November 18th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated November 12th
No concerns.
Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Cooler weather.
- Some weekend clouds. Showers.
- Colder Sunday.
No change to the going forecast. The weather department is on slow-mode. Not much going on!
I guess that is good? Some may need some rain.
High pressure dominates our current weather pattern. That is why it is dry and cooler.
Our next weather maker arrives Saturday and Saturday night. This system will bring a showers to the region.
Rain chances will increase late Friday night and early Saturday morning and then spread across the region during the day.
A cold front sweeps across the area Saturday night with a few more showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Rain chances Sunday drop below 20%.
Colder air arrives Sunday. A chance of falling temperatures during the day. The high temperatures may be during the first half of the day.
Rain totals of 0.05″ to 0.35″ are anticipated across most of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.
Rain totals over southeast Missouri, extreme western Kentucky, and southern Illinois may be higher. Model guidance is showing 0.40″ to 0.80″. Possibly higher. Confidence in these totals, at this point, is on the low-side. There are mixed signals in the data.
Let’s monitor this map and see what adjustments are made as we move through today and tomorrow.
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I have only recorded 0.01″ of rain at the Weather Observatory in Massac County since November 1st.
No extreme weather in the charts.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
NO RAIN IN THE SHORT-RANGE FORECAST
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
NO RAIN IN THE SHORT-RANGE FORECAST
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 12th through November 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 37 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.85″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers November 19th through November 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 34 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.75″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 24th through December 7th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
THIS WILL RETURN IN THE SPRING. DURING THE GROWING SEASON.
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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