November 11, 2025: Warming trend. A l;ate weekend cold front. That front has slowed.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

November 11th to November 18th

Current risk: NOT AT THIS TIME

Current confidence level: Medium confidence.

Comments: I will keep an eye on a strong cold front this coming Sunday and Monday. Right now, severe weather is not anticipated.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring Sunday and Monday.

2. Are organized/widespread severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I am monitoring Sunday and Monday.

.3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NOT AT THIS TIME.

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? NO.

6. Will the temperature fall below 32 degrees? NO. Other than this morning.

8. Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? NO. A small chance of flurries this morning.

Here is the short-range concern meter.

A small chance of lightning today and tomorrow.

Here is the extended concern meter.

I will monitor the risk of thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday.

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A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

Here is your bus stop forecast.

No school today. Veteran’s Day.
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This afternoon

No school today

Forecast discussion

The warming trend begins today and tomorrow. A small chance of flurries this morning.
Temperatures will pop into the 70s by Friday and Saturday.
Watching a cold front that should arrive on Sunday and Monday. Showers will accompany that front. It is too soon to know if thunderstorms will be an issue.
The front has slowed by 24 hours.

Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brushed outlook for the entire region.

Today and tonight

Brrr.

We are waking up to widespread 20s in the region. Wind chill values have dipped into the teens. We also have spotty flurries and snow showers over portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

There could still be a few flurries around. Radar is not showing much. Sometimes flurries are difficult to see on radar.

Here were the 5 am temperatures.

Temperatures will begin to moderate today. That is the good news.

It will not be as cold tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday

Mostly dry conditions through Sunday morning.

A weak system is expected to move across the region late Thursday into Friday. Perhaps one or two showers with it.

A warming trend will begin today. By Wednesday, we will be back in the 60s for daytime highs.

By Friday and Saturday, we will be back to 70 degrees or above! A roller-coaster ride of temperatures. Not all that unusual for autumn.

Here is the EC model ensemble temperature mean. This is the average of over 100 model runs. You can see the warming trend.

I chose Paducah as the location, but this will be about the same area-wide.

Wednesday highs

Double-click images to enlarge these graphics

Thursday highs

Friday highs

Saturday highs

Sunday highs

Monday Highs

Sunday and Monday

Our next cold front has slowed. It now appears that it won’t arrive until late Sunday and Monday.

It is possible that most of Sunday is dry, and the bulk of the rain arrives Sunday night onward. I will need to watch trends.

A strong cold front will push into the region on Sunday night and Monday. This will bring our next best chance of showers and thunderstorms.

It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

Currently, these are the rainfall totals expected on Sunday and Monday

Double-click on the image to enlarge it

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model

The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

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** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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