November 10, 2024:

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today over mainly western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Lightning is possible Wednesday and Wednesday night along a cold front.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME. I will keep an eye on the Wednesday system.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Isolated issues are possible over western Kentucky today. Mainly in areas that received heavy rainfall overnight.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

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Fire weather risk level.

Sunday: 4. Low risk.
Sunday night: 4. Low risk.
Monday:4. Low risk.
Monday night: 4. Low risk.
Tuesday:4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Numerous showers can be expected across west Kentucky and southwest Indiana into early this afternoon, with a rumble of thunder not out of the question. Lingering showers in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri will taper off, with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. Afternoon humidity levels today in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will be 45-55%, and in west Kentucky and southwest Indiana around 60% or higher. Dry conditions can be expected Monday with afternoon humidity in the 45-55% range, mixing heights around 3000 feet, and light winds resulting in poor to fair dispersion.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Beau’s Seven Day Video Update

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Some clearing west to east as the day wears on. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be higher over Kentucky and Tennessee. Lower over Missouri and Illinois. Rain will end west to east as the day wears on. Mild temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 100%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated west. Widespread east.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. Rain will taper off as the day wears on.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy early. Some clearing overnight. Patchy dense fog. A chance of evening showers over our far eastern counties
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (ending)
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 50°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 46° to 50°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 50°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 50° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: West wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:53 PM
Moonset: 12:09 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Near average temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:19 PM
Moonset: 1:21 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Near to slightly above average temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 64°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool. Near normal temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:46 PM
Moonset: 2:32 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds ahead of a cold front. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. I continue to struggle with rain coverage Wednesday. I am monitoring trends. Adjustments are possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time. More likely before midnight vs after midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 46°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 42° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:15 PM
Moonset: 3:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Rain ending today from west to east. Some clearing as the day wears on over portions of the region.
2. Well above average temperatures today. Patchy fog tonight and tomorrow night.
3. Mostly above average temperatures over the week ahead. Perhaps near average Monday night into Tuesday night.
4. Another cold front arrives Wednesday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Good day, everyone.

I do hope you are having a nice weekend!

Rain has covered much of the region over the last 24 hours.

Here is what the 8:15 am radar looked like. You can see rain streaming northeast.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Rainfall totals have been heavier over western Kentucky. There was even a flash flood warning for a few areas. Some ditches and streams flooded onto roadways.

We expected a heavier band somewhere in western Kentucky due to training.

Here were some of the radar indicated rainfall totals.

Double click to enlarge the image.

Zoomed in on that area

The rain will exit as we moves through the day. Moving off to the east southeast.

There could be a few remaining showers this evening over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Tonight will bring clearing sky conditions with patchy dense fog. Use care.

Monday and Tuesday will bring calm weather. No weather concerns.

Temperatures will remain at or above average. Patchy fog each night.

Another cold front arrives on Wednesday and Wednesday night. I have to say that models have been all over the place with this front. At times showing no rain at all. Other times, showing heavy rain.

I capped rain chances at 40% (for now). Adjustments are likely.

I am monitoring trends in the guidance.

Here is what the EC model shows. This the Wednesday system. It is fairly wet compared to some other models.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=6 AM. 18z=12 PM. 00z=6 PM. 06z=12 AM

Let’s look at rainfall totals for the Wednesday system.

The GFS model shows the least amount

The EC model shows the higher totals

The blend of models shows a widespread 0.25 to 0.50″.

We dry out Thursday through Saturday. A little cooler. Although it still looks like temperatures will be above seasonal averages.

No true cold air in the charts, yet.

I continue to watch a couple of systems in week two and three. Those are too far out for certainties.

Monitor updates.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.