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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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48-hour forecast
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Wednesday to Wednesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Small risk. A low-end risk of lightning tonight and Thursday. Isolated.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? Not at this time.
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November 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild for November.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 68° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 70° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Increasing rain chances from the west. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numbers
Timing of the rain: Mostly after midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 12:41 PM
Moonset: 10:39 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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November 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers. Most of the showers will be during the morning hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 70% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / the rest of South IL ~ 70% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Most numerous before 1 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 65° / SE MO 60° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 60° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming west southwest 10 to 25 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early in the day.
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Clearing. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Evening
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 38° to 44° / SE MO 36° to 40° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 40° / West KY 36° to 40° / NW TN 38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the weather radars
Moonrise: 1:20 PM
Moonset: 11:47 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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November 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Cooler. A slight chance of light rain. A weak system will skirt the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: West southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 4:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 34° / SE MO 28° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 34° / South IL 28° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30° to 34° / West KY 30° to 34° / NW TN 30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:53 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° / South IL 45° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 45° to 50° / NW TN 45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:33 AM
Sunset: 4:46 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain or rain/snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 40° to 45° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 28° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Light and variable wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:20 PM
Moonset: 12:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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November 15, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of rain or rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° / SE MO 50° to 55° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 55° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° / West KY 50° to 55° / NW TN 50° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming west at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 28° to 32° / SE MO 26° to 32° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 26° to 32° / South IL 28° to 32° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 28° to 32° / West KY 28° to 32° / NW TN 28° to 32°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 32°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:45 PM
Moonset: 1:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click the images to enlarge them.
Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.
This is an average for the region.
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Double click these graphics to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Kentucky
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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.Tennessee
Check my handwritten forecast (and graphic) towards the top of the page. This graphic below is auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.
The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.
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Today through November 16th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- One more mild day.
- Rain chances ramp up tonight/Thursday.
- Colder by the weekend.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Weather Discussion
We had more clouds Tuesday than anticipated. I thought we would have a bit more sunshine. The clouds won out. It was a mild day, however.
Today will deliver some sunshine and warm/mild temperatures.
A cold front is advancing into the region from the west. That front will deliver a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight into Thursday. Most of the region should experience some rain from this event. Rain totals of 0.3 to 0.6″ are anticipated. Don’t be surprised if some locations receive less. We will need to see if it is a solid band of rain.
The front will push from west to east across the region Thursday. The rain will end west to east, as well. The bulk of the showers will be during the morning hours with the system departing during the afternoon hours.
We could have an isolated thunderstorm embedded in the rain shield, but severe weather is not in the forecast. Thankfully.
It will be colder Thursday night into the weekend. As a matter of fact, some days may remain in the forties! That is cold for November.
A fast moving weak system will bring some clouds to the region Friday. Perhaps a light shower, as well. Low-end chances.
Another system arrives on Sunday. This system could also produce some light rain showers. If the rain showers develop early enough (or late Saturday night) then there could be a rain/snow mix. No accumulation. No concerns.
We dry out for your Monday and Tuesday of next week.
I am watching another system towards next Wednesday night into Friday. Timing of that one will need to be ironed out.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Longer range GFS
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Long range
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers November 10th through November 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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This outlook covers November 17th through November 23rd
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.10″
This outlook covers November 23rd through December 6th
Precipitation outlook
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Outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
February Temperature Outlook
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Autumn Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
September, October, and November Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December, January, and February Temperature Outlook
December, January, and February Precipitation Outlook
Green represents above average precipitation.
EC means equal chances of above or below average snowfall.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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