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Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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November 9, 2016
Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am Thursday morning
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Cold. Frost likely. Killing frost possible. Below normal temperatures.
What impact is expected? Frost likely. Perhaps some patchy fog. Freeze possible, but not likely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: Lows in the 30-38 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North to east at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 4:48 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:55 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:36 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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November 10, 2016
Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am Thursday morning
Thursday: Frost advisory until 8 am. Morning frost. Mostly sunny. Nice autumn day for the region.
What impact is expected? Morning frost conditions. Small risk for a freeze during the early morning hours.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:29 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:47 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:32 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:41 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night: A few passing clouds, otherwise clear. Cool, but not as cold as Wednesday night.
What impact is expected? None.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Becoming west and southwest at 0-5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 11, 2016
Veterans Day
Friday: Mostly sunny. A few clouds possible. Cool. A weak cold front will approach from the north. There could be a band of clouds with the front.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Northwest and north at 7-14 mph. Winds might be gusty at times. Gusts to 14-18 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:30 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:48 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Friday Night: Mostly clear. Cold. Patchy frost possible.
What impact is expected? I will monitor the frost potential for Friday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-42 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North and northwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph early during the evening. Winds dying down during the evening hours.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 12, 2016
Saturday: Perhaps a few morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Cooler. Below normal temperatures. Normal high temperatures are around 60 degrees.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 55-60 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North at 5-10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:31 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:46 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 3:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:58 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Colder. Widespread frost likely. A freeze possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a widespread frost. Let’s monitor trends. Freeze possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 28-36 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: North winds becoming east and southeast at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 13, 2016
Sunday: Morning frost. Partly sunny. A nice autumn day.
What impact is expected? Morning frost possible. A freeze is possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southeast and south at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None anticipated
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:45 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 4:33 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:10 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night: A few clouds. Not as cold.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36-44 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 0-4 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 14, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 62-66 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 5:21 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:21 a.m. Full Moon
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Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 3-6 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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November 15, 2016
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Small chance for a shower.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: South and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 4:44 p.m.
UV Index: 5-7
Moonrise will be at 6:13 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:33 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night: Perhaps a few passing clouds. Small chance for showers.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Low confidence.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Wind Chill: N/A
Winds: Southwest and west at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Frost advisory
- Freeze possible
- Drought
- Long range outlook
This weather pattern is strange. That is an understatement. Remember, we had the wettest summer on record in western Kentucky. Now, we are stuck in a weather pattern that is producing little in the way of rain. We have gone from record rain to drought. Most of Kentucky is now in drought conditions. Numerous counties are battling wildfires.
Check out the percent of normal rainfall for the past 60 days. These are amazing numbers considering we had the wettest summer on record.
The overall pattern is not going to change in the near term. The only thing that will change is that temperatures will finally dip low enough to produce widespread frost and perhaps even a freeze.
The latest date for 32 degrees, at the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service, is November 13th. Will we break that record? Not sure. It will be close. There is the potential for 32 degree readings Wednesday night/Thursday morning and again on Sunday. When is the 13th? That would be Sunday!
Dry conditions will continue through at least Monday. Drought conditions will worsen. Burn bans are in effect for a number of our local counties.
Let’s look at some temperatures for Saturday and Sunday morning.
Frost possible Saturday morning.
Sunday morning lows. Freeze possible. Frost likely.
Let’s take a look at the forecasted temperature anomalies for the coming 7-10 day period. We are not finished with above normal temperatures. We can’t shake this pattern. That also means the drought will worsen.
Let me walk you through these anomaly maps. Blue colors indicate below normal temperatures. Red indicates above normal temperatures. Scale is on the right side of the page.
This first map is for Thursday morning. Some below normal temperatures in our region. Below normal temperatures have been few and far between over the past few weeks. It has been a very mild autumn. No secret there. I figured we would have above normal temperatures in October and November, but didn’t think it would be THIS warm. Hard to forecast record warmth of this nature.
This next map is for Friday morning.
This next map is for Saturday morning. Below normal temperatures.
This next map is for Sunday morning. Below normal temperatures likely on Sunday morning. Frost/freeze possible.
This next map is for Monday morning
This next map is for November 12th (Tuesday morning)
This next map is for November 16th (Wednesday). More above normal temperatures.
This next map is for November 17th (Thursday morning). More above normal temperatures.
This next map is for Friday, November 18th. More above normal temperatures.
Let me show you some long range models. Winter fans are not going to like these maps. Keep in mind they are models. Models are not always correct. There are a lot of meteorologists calling for a colder than normal winter. I would lean that way. One can’t ignore the models, either. We will see. Long range forecasting is a little bit of skill and a lot of luck.
Here is the November temperature map. Anomalies. As you can see, lots of red. Above normal temperatures.
December
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It appears October was the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record. I was thinking it would be the warmest. Close.
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How much rain is NOAA/WPC forecasting over the coming days?
WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast
No rain expected Wednesday through at least Monday.
Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night through next Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No significant changes.
.Frost and freeze conditions are possible Wednesday night, Friday night, and Saturday night
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 38 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue Squad. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
