November 1, 2024: Warming trend this weekend. Unsettled next week.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Sunday into Wednesday. Higher chances Monday and Tuesday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MONITOR. I am monitoring a cold front Monday and Tuesday. It is still too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures drop below 32 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Friday: 4. Low risk.
Friday night: 4. Low risk.
Saturday: 4. Low risk.
Saturday night: 4. Low risk.
Sunday: 4. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Dry weather returns today through Saturday. Daily RH values will fall to around 35-45% both days. However, transport winds will be light from the E to SE, and mixing heights will be limited 2500 ft or less. A more unsettled weather pattern will return Saturday night, and near-daily rain chances are forecast through the middle of next week.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Seven Day Outlook

Friday Long Range video

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast: Clearing. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: North wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:20 AM
Sunset: 5:57 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 46°
Winds will be from this direction: East wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Moonrise: 7:30 AM
Moonset: 5:50 PM
The phase of the moon: New

Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 72° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 4. Medium.
Sunrise: 7:21 AM
Sunset: 5:56 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 56° to 58°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:33 AM
Moonset: 6:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Sunday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 78° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 75° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 8 to 16 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 64°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast wind at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 8:35 AM
Moonset: 5:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 4:54 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South wind becoming south southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:38 AM
Moonset: 6:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. We dry out today.
2. Cooler today.
3. Warming trend this weekend. We pop back into the 70s and 80s.
4. Unsettled weather Sunday into the middle of next week.
5. Cooler mid to late next week.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Welcome to November! I hope you had a nice Halloween.

Most of southern Illinois and southeast Missouri dried out in time for trick-or-treating. Portions of Kentucky and Tennessee had to dodge raindrops during the evening hours.

A widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ of rain fell across the region yesterday. There were pockets of one to three inches in southern Illinois!

A few locations in western Kentucky received a bit less than 0.40″.

That was our first substantial rainfall of the entire Month of October!

The last substantial rain was from Hurricane Helene. That was in late September.

We will dry out today with cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be near normal today. Perhaps slightly above average. It will feel more like autumn today.

A few clouds remain over our eastern counties, but those will push off to the east.

We could have some patchy fog tonight. Especially near bodies of water. Use care.

We warm up tomorrow into early next week.

The seventies and eighties will return! Well above average temperatures. It is quite amazing how many days have had temperatures in the seventies and eighties over the past month. Unusual weather.

Let me show you two data sets.

The GFS long range temperature outlook. Perhaps finally some sustained cooler weather in the long range?

The EC model

Let’s see how that verifies. Sustained sixties would be more typical for this time of the year. Not the seventies and eighties.

I am closely monitoring rain chances Saturday through Wednesday of next week.

The system has slowed. I did have increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms in tomorrow’s forecast. I now have Saturday mostly dry.

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night into Sunday night. Especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lower chances as you travel east southeast.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp up Monday into Tuesday night area-wide. That will occur as a cold front advances into the region.

It is still too early to know if severe weather will be a concern.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk zone Monday. That is just to our west. I will keep a close eye on it.

Let me show you the current rain probabilities and break it down.

As mentioned over the last few days, there could still be adjustments in these maps. It will depend on the speed of the cold front.

Saturday

Saturday night

Sunday

Sunday night

Monday

Monday night

Tuesday

Tuesday night

Wednesday

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.