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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
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** A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THICKNESS. RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHWEST KENTUCKY **
* A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THICKNESS. RAINCHANCES ARE HIGHER ACROSS NORTHWEST KENTUCKY **
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance today across mainly northwest Kentucky. A small chance Tuesday across Kentucky. Another chance Saturday night into Monday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. A chance across northwest Kentucky today. Near Owensboro.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Yes. Possible today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. Today’s temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover. Clouds will keep temperatures down.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Monday, September 19, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cloud cover will vary across the region. More clouds across Kentucky and Illinois vs areas further south and west. This will impact high temperatures. Keep that in mind. There will be showers and thunderstorms across mainly southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky (the Owensboro area). Smaller chances across the rest of the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous as you move towards Owensboro, Kentucky. Otherwise, not much activity elsewhere.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 1 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 90° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 86° to 90° / West KY 93° to 96° / NW TN 94° to 96°
Winds will be from the: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 104° (lowest where clouds linger).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
Sunset: 6:56 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Some evening clouds over mainly Kentucky. Otherwise, mostly clear. Warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° / SE MO 68° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 70° / South IL 68° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 68° to 70° / West KY 68° to 70° / NW TN 68° to 70°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:18 AM
Moonset: 3:51 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, September 20, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 98° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:42 AM
Sunset: 6:55 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 66° to 70° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 66° to 70° / West KY 66° to 70° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: S 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:18 AM
Moonset: 4:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, September 21, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 98° / SE MO 94° to 98° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 98° / South IL 94° to 98° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 94° to 98° / West KY 94° to 98° / NW TN 94° to 98°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 100°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:53 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Some evening clouds. A slight chance of an early evening shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (small chance)
Timing of the rain: Before 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 58° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° / South IL 60° to 62° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 60° to 62° / West KY 60° to 62° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: Becoming north northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Small chance of Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:13 AM
Moonset: 5:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, September 22, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Much cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: North 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:52 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° / SE MO 48° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 52° / South IL 50° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 50° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:13 AM
Moonset: 5:41 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Friday, September 23, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° / SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 74° / South IL 72° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 72° to 74° / West KY 73° to 76° / NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Northeast to east 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 6:51 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 53° to 56° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 53° to 56° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 53° to 56°
Winds will be from the: East 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:16 AM
Moonset: 6:10 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday, September 24, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° / SE MO 82° to 85° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 85° / South IL 82° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 82° to 85° / West KY 83° to 86° / NW TN 84° to 86°
Winds will be from the: Becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:49 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 66° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 56° to 60° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Winds will be from the: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:17 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, September 25, 2022
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° / SE MO 80° to 82° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 80° to 82° / South IL 80° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 80° to 82° / West KY 82° to 84° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Winds will be from the: Southwest 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars and monitor updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:48 AM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° / SE MO 53° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 55° / South IL 53° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border 52° to 54° / West KY 53° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: South 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:20 AM
Moonset: 7:00 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through September 28th: Organized/widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today across northwest Kentucky.
- Heat today into Wednesday (temperatures today will depend on cloud cover)
- Dry conditions for most of the region into the weekend.
- Hickman County severe weather presentation. September 29th. Come visit with me.
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Weather advice:
Stay cool in the coming heat wave!
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Current Weather Discussion
It is a very wet morning across portions of the region. The bulk of the region, however, remains dry and mild.
Showers and thunderstorms are pushing southeast through southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and northwest Kentucky.
This complex formed in Iowa yesterday afternoon. It has made it all the way into our region.
Some of these showers and thunderstorms are producing locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty wind.
You can see those showers and thunderstorms on this 7:30 AM radar shot
This complex of showers and thunderstorms is causing some cloud cover over the region. This may help shave a few degrees off the thermometer. That will depend on how fast the clouds clear.
Keep that in mind today. High temperatures are highly dependent on cloud thickness/cover.
This activity will weaken as we move through the morning hours.
The rest of the area will remain dry today. Just a small chance of additional shower and thunderstorm development over Illinois and Kentucky.
A heat wave is forecast today through Wednesday. Thankfully, we removed Thursday from the heat wave.
Expect highs in the 90s all three days. Again, temperatures today may vary a bit based on cloud cover.
Heat index values will approach or exceed 100 degrees in some locations today into Wednesday.
We need the rain. Drought has been redeveloping in the region. We did see this subside (for most of the area) a few weeks ago. Only to return in September.
You can monitor drought conditions here. Click here.
Here are the latest drought monitor maps. Double click the image to enlarge it.
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September, for the most part, has been a dry month across the bulk of the region.
The Weather Observatory received most of its rain back in early September. Not much since.
A strong cold front will push across the region Wednesday afternoon and night. This front will bring a few clouds and perhaps an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Odds are, it will remain dry across most of the region.
This front will bring an abrupt end to our heat wave. Thankfully.
Much cooler air will filter into the region by Thursday and Friday. Low humidity levels, as well. It will feel like autumn.
Guidance is showing 40s Thursday night. That seems plausible across at least the northern portion of the region. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 50s. Tils will feel pleasant after our heat wave.
Temperatures will rebound a bit Saturday and then fall back some Sunday.
Another frontal system could bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday. Confidence, for now, isn’t great. Something to watch.
Fire season is upon us. If we don’t receive rain soon, then field and brush fires will be a concern.
Join us for Surviving the Storm. Thursday, September 29 at 6:00 PM at the Hickman County Extension Office.
We will review the December 2021 Tornado, lessons learned, and disaster preparedness tips.
Justin Jackson, Hickman Office of Emergency Management Director, will overview the Hickman County tornado damage and response.
Door Prizes (including five Midland 120 NOAA Weather Radios) and Light Refreshments are provided.
This free event is sponsored by the Hickman County Office of Emergency Management and Hickman County Extension.
https://www.facebook.com/events/962061578018048/?ref=newsfeed
As a reminder, we typically see an uptick in tornado activity from mid-October through the end of November. Some of our deadlier outbreaks have occurred during the autumn and winter months.
Make sure you have the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app downloaded on your phone. Make sure your subscription is up to date.
You can check your subscription by going to www.weathertalk.com
These are the different product screens in the app.
Here is an example of the rapid-fire tornado messages that I send out.
Let’s keep that in the back of our mind. The weather will become increasingly active as we push deeper into the autumn months.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Early AM Energy/Agriculture Report.
This graphic is usually updated between 7 am and 9 am
The highlighted precipitation area on some of the charts is considered the corn belt.
Double click this image to make it larger.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers September 19th through September 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
These are typically updated between 8:30 and 9:30 AM
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers September 26th through October 2nd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.00″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers September 27th through October 10th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
September Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows the top analogs. Let me pull this graphic out from the above one.
Analogs are years that are similar to the current one. We use analogs to determine how this year might act compared to recent years with similar conditions.
Typically, in our region, snowfall totals are lower during La Nina winters.
The bottom three USA graphics indicate that possibility. Last year delivered below average snowfall totals (for most of our area).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
The graphic below shows you the temperature outlooks from a variety of super models.
The first four USA graphics are temperature outlooks. All four are warmer than average for our local area. Orange and yellow.
The second four USA graphics are precipitation outlooks. Typical for a La Nina winter, we are seeing the risk of average to above average precipitation in the Ohio Valley.
Only one model shows below average precipitation. On the precipitation graphics (the bottom four USA images) green is above. Yellow is below.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Preliminary winter outlook. Temperatures and precipitation.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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