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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Seven day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
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** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lighting is possible Monday night into Tuesday evening.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms over northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky. The primary concern will be a few reports of damaging wind and perhaps a tornado. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
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Monday, October 24, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Increasing clouds. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
Sunset: 6:07 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from the west. Moving east/northeast.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time, but more likely after 10 PM.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 55° to 60°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 55° to 60°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 55° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~55° to 60°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 6:13 AM
Moonset: 5:52 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms. A few storms in Tennessee and Kentucky could be intense. Monitor updates. Rain coverage may be greatest over Missouri and Illinois. That is where the heaviest totals are anticipated. A 100% chance of rain means it will rain at some point during the day. It does not mean it will rain from sunrise to sunset.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 100%
Southeast Missouri ~ 100%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 100%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 100%
Southern Illinois ~ 100%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky ~ 100%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~100%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 100%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Periods of widespread showers and thunderstorms
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 73° to 76°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 74° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather over Kentucky and Tennessee.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
Sunset: 6:05 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely (mainly early). Decreasing chances. Precipitation ending southwest to northeast during the evening into overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous the first half of the night. Becoming scattered.
Timing of the rain: Mostly the first half of the night. Scattered after midnight. Decreasing coverage.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: Becoming west northwest 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 36° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates and radars.
Moonrise: 7:20 AM
Moonset: 6:21 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
Sunset: 6:04 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Moonrise: 8:31 AM
Moonset: 6:54 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Thursday, October 27, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:15 AM
Sunset: 6:03 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a late night shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 38° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: East 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:45 AM
Moonset: 7:34 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Friday, October 28, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
Sunset: 6:02 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: After 10 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:58 AM
Moonset: 8:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Saturday, October 29, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 4. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
Sunset: 6:01 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Moonrise: 12:05 PM
Moonset: 9:22 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, October 30, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:59 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 1:09 PM
Moonset: 10:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Monday, October 31, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 64°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3. Moderate
Sunrise: 7:19 AM
Sunset: 5:58 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky(near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 46°
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 46° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 2:00 PM
Moonset: 11:42 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through November 5th: I am monitoring Tuesday. There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms are mainly western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. The primary concern will be damaging wind. I can’t rule out a short-lived tornado. There remain significant questions about the overall severe weather risk. It appears low, but not zero.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- High fire danger today. Windy conditions.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday night.
- Cooler Wednesday.
- Monitoring late week shower chances
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Weather advice:
Dry conditions continue to support the development of wild fires. Please use care and don’t burn leaves or fields. Avoid throwing cigarettes’ out the window. Use care with camp fires and grilling.
Monitor updates concerning the risk of thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday night.
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Current Weather Discussion
Today
Windy. Mild. Dry. There will be a high fire danger today. Avoid burning fields and brush. Use common-sense. Your fire departments thank you.
There have been numerous fires over the past few days and weeks. You are likely aware of some of them. Some larger than others.
Some structures have even caught fire because of the wild fires. That is a bit unusual around here.
It will be warm today. I had to bump highs up a tad more. Expect widespread upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could hit the middle 80s.
Well above average.
You can see that illustrated in these two maps.
These maps show you today’s temperature anomalies. How many degrees above average will temperatures be?
Normal highs are around 65 degrees.
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Tonight into Tuesday night
The next big weather story will be rain. Finally, some rain.
You can already see the system on the national radar mosaic.
Even some snow in Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and south Dakota. New Mexico, as well. It is a potent autumn system.
It has been windy because of the tight barometric pressure gradient. Pressure determines wind speed. A tight pressure gradient (rapidly rising or falling barometers) will mean stronger wind gusts.
There continues to be a shift northwest with the area of low pressure. The EC model has shown this all along.
Remember, low pressure usually means inclement weather. High pressure usually means nice weather.
The European models have always shown this northwest trend/placement. The track of the low is key to our weather conditions.
This is the EC ensembles (many EC models ran at once). See that red L? That is the area of low pressure. You can see it has a tightly clustered array of L’s. That means confidence is high that this low pressure center will track into Missouri and Illinois vs Kentucky and Tennessee.
At one time models had the low passing to our south. It has trended northwest with each passing day.
The farther northwest the low travels, the less the rain that our region receives (at least portions of the region). It also means the warm sector is farther north and west. That spells thunderstorms.
Rain totals will likely rain from 0.6 to 1.4″. There will be locally higher totals where thunderstorms train over the same area.
Unfortunately, this trend northwest means less rain in Kentucky and Tennessee.
Here is the NOAA/WPC forecast from a few days ago. Compare it to the one below it (the latest update)
And here is the new update. That is a pretty big difference.
We have to carefully watch these autumn low pressure centers.
Their track determines whether severe weather will develop. When a low tracks farther northwest, it means increasing instability in our region.
It means we are in the warm sector. We call the area to the south of the warm front and east of the cold front “the warm sector”
Here is a diagram of that.
It is in the warm sector where thunderstorms usually develop. Sometimes these thunderstorms can be severe.
Dew points (measure of moisture) will likely sufficient for severe weather. Wind shear (changing of wind speed and direction with height) is strong. What is lacking are better lapse rates. The cooling of air with height. CAPE is weak (although that is typical during the autumn).
If we had more CAPE (energy that storms tap into) and higher lapse rates, then I would be more concerned.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level one risk (marginal risk) of severe weather over primarily Kentucky and Tennessee Tuesday late morning into the evening hours. Perhaps mainly the afternoon hours.
You can see this on the SPC outlook graphic. Here it is. Day two severe weather outlook.
The concern is a few thunderstorms producing locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and even a tornado. Any tornadoes would likely be short-lived. Most tornadoes are short-lived.
This does not appear to be a long-tracked tornado type set-up. Like the one we had December 10th. With that said, any tornado activity is unwelcome. Any tornado can cause damage.
I will keep an eye on this. I will send out app messages, if necessary. Monitor your app updates.
The rain will spread into the region late tonight and continue on and off into Tuesday evening. The rain chances will dwindle Tuesday night. Ending southwest to northeast.
Gusty winds are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night.
A few more maps.
This is the Hrrr model. You can see how it forms a line of showers and thunderstorms. That line then shifts east northeast as the day wears on.
Early morning hours
Early afternoon
Early afternoon
Wednesday into the weekend.
Dry conditions are anticipated Wednesday through Friday. I flirted with low-end rain chances Friday and Friday night. I mentioned in the detailed forecast (top of page) that I had low confidence in the Friday through Monday time-frame. That continues to be the case.
Guidance is not in agreement as to how this time-period transpires.
It does appear we will have at least a chance of a few showers this weekend. Rain totals don’t appear to be all that great. Some data shows no precipitation. Other days shows less than 0.30″.
I am going to continue to monitor trends in the guidance. Once confidence increases, then I will adjust the rain probabilities for each time period. For now, I have low-end rain chances. Around twenty-perfect. It is possible that one of those 12-hour periods will end up with higher probabilities.
It will turn cooler Wednesday. That will be behind our Tuesday cold front. Nothing too extreme. More seasonal temperatures vs what we are experiencing today and tomorrow.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers October 22nd through October 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers October 29th through November 4th
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 4th through November 17th
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Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
Autumn OUTLOOK
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
October Temperature Outlook
Precipitation
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
November Temperature Outlook
November Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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