Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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I am going to try to streamline the blog.  Centered on the most important aspects of the forecast.   

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Key Points

• There is a 20% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  A few storms could produce 30 to 40 mph wind gusts.
• Wednesday will be hot, humid, and windy. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, and strong south winds will make it feel even more uncomfortable.  A lake wind advisory will be issued.  Boaters should use care.
• A line of thunderstorms will move southeast across the region Wednesday night. Some storms could produce damaging wind gusts, especially near and north of Interstate 64.  Overall, the severe weather risk at any given location is small.
• More showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night, with the highest chances in western Kentucky. A few storms could become strong, with 50 mph wind gusts.  Locally higher.
• Friday looks much better, with dry weather, cooler temperatures, and lower humidity.
•  I will monitor Saturday and Sunday for additional showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast Discussion

A weak weather system will bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Quad State this afternoon and evening. Not everyone will see rain, and severe weather is not expected. However, a few storms could produce gusty winds.

Here are the probabilities of rain.  As you can see, the chances are a bit higher north vs south.  Remember, a low chance does not mean that it will not rain.

I would not be surprised if some showers remain a bit farther south than shown on this graphic.

On Wednesday, strong south winds will develop across the region. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph at times, especially during the afternoon and evening. The strong winds will also bring back hot and humid weather, with temperatures in the upper 80s and muggy conditions.

Wednesday night, thunderstorms developing to our northwest may organize into a line and move through the area. Damaging winds are the main concern.

This could be a late-night event (mainly northern counties).  Monitor your updated app messages.

Another round of showers and storms is expected Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front moves through. Some storms could become strong, especially across western Kentucky, with high wind gusts are again being the primary threat.  I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorm warnings.  Monitor app updates.

By Friday, the cold front will move out of the area, bringing cooler temperatures, lower humidity, and dry weather.

Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, but the exact timing and strength of those systems remain uncertain.  I will know more over the coming days.

I would not cancel any Friday or Saturday plans.  Monitor updates, as always.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️

June 15th through June 21st

A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.

Current severe weather risk:  MONITOR.  A few thunderstorms this afternoon could produce gusty winds and small hail.

I am monitoring late Wednesday night and Thursday for gusty storms.  I can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorm warnings, but a lot of data shows the line weakening.  The best chance of a warning will be across the northern portions of southern Illinois.

At this time, the overall severe weather risk appears limited.  Monitor updates in case any changes occur.

Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.

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🌪️ Current tornado risk:  NOT ANTICIPATED.  Tornadoes are not anticipated at this time.

Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: Medium.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

* Scroll down to see your local city rain probability maps.

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We are waking up to a cooler and less muggy air mass.

Here were the 4 AM temperatures and dew points.  Dew points control how muggy it feels.

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Let’s Look At The Five-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast

General rainfall total maps for today through Sunday morning.

* As is typical for late spring, totals will vary greatly.  Thunderstorms can double your rainfall totals.  Keep that in mind.

Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways to receive severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon, it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF