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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. There is a chance of lightning Wednesday night into Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Monday, January 9, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Monday Forecast: Patchy morning freezing fog. Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 48°
Southeast Missouri ~ 46° to 50°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 46° to 48°
Southern Illinois ~ 50° to 52°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 52°
Far western Kentucky ~ 50° to 52°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 50° to 52°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 50°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:55 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a sprinkle. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: South 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:28 PM
Moonset: 9:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday, January 10, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Morning clouds. Becoming partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 53° to 56°
Southeast Missouri ~ 54° to 56°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 58°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~53° to 56°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 54° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 54° to 58°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 54° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 54° to 58°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:56 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 40°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 36° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 36° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 36° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 40°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 36°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:27 PM
Moonset: 9:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a light shower.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After 2 PM
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 56° to 60°
Southeast Missouri ~ 58° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 58° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 56° to 60°
Southern Illinois ~ 58° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 58° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 58° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~58° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 58° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~58° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:57 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Increasing chances overnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 48° to 52°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 48°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 48°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 50°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 45° to 48°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 6 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 9:27 PM
Moonset: 10:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Thursday, January 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Decreasing coverage through the day. Turning colder with falling temperatures.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Decreasing coverage west to east during the afternoon.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 45° to 50°
Southeast Missouri ~ 48° to 52°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 50° to 55°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 48° to 52°
Southern Illinois ~ 48° to 54°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 50° to 55°
Far western Kentucky ~ 52° to 55°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 52° to 55°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: South becoming west northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:58 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of a light shower or snow flurry before midnight.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
Southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 32°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 28° to 32°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 32° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 32° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 32° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 32° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
Moonrise: 10:25 PM
Moonset: 10:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Friday, January 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of snow flurries.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
Southeast Missouri ~ 38° to 42°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 38° to 40°
Far western Kentucky ~ 38° to 40°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 40°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 38° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 4:59 PM
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Friday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Decreasing clouds overnight.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 24°
Southeast Missouri ~ 22° to 25°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 23° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 22° to 25°
Far western Kentucky ~ 23° to 26°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 23° to 26°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 23° to 26°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 20° to 25°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:26 PM
Moonset: 10:53 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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Saturday, January 14, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? Medium Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 42° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 43° to 46°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 42° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 43° to 46°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 43° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 44° to 46°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 44° to 48°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 2. Low.
Sunrise: 7:09 AM
Sunset: 5:00 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:
What is the chance of precipitation? Partly cloudy.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 28° to 30°
Southeast Missouri ~ 30° to 34°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30° to 34°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Southern Illinois ~ 30° to 34°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30° to 34°
Far western Kentucky ~ 30° to 34°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30° to 34°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30° to 34°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 26° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 11:16 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 12th: No
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Damaging Wind Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Patchy freezing fog this morning.
- Drizzle possible Tuesday night.
- Rain chances ramp up Wednesday into Thursday. A few thunderstorms.
- Parade of systems.
Weather advice:
None
Current Weather Discussion
We do have some patchy fog in the region this morning. Patchy freezing fog, as well. Use care. The fog will mix out over the coming hours.
A mix of sun and clouds today. Once the fog lifts, then we should see partly sunny sky conditions giving way to more sunshine later in the day.
Not a bad January day.
A large storm system takes shape Wednesday into Thursday.
A few showers will be possible Wednesday during the day. The bulk, however, will hold off until Wednesday night.
I have increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night into Thursday. Ending as we move through the day Thursday. The system has sped up.
There may be just enough cold air Thursday evening and night for the precipitation to end as snow flurries. At this time, no accumulation is expected.
Rain totals will likely range from 0.30 to 0.60″. Some of the data shows 0.50″ to 1.00″. This will depend on the speed of the front. Either way, this is not a huge rain event or a flood type event.
Dew points will struggle to reach the upper 50s. The threat of severe weather should stay to our south. The Storm Prediction Center did add a portion of the region into a marginal risk Wednesday night. This may be overdone, and they state as much. I will keep an eye on it.
The greater risk of severe weather should be to our south where the higher moisture levels will be located.
There is a parade of storms that are forecast to move across the nation over the next two weeks. You will likely see California in the news. Some areas will receive more than 200 inches of snow!
If the GFS model is correct, then we will have periodic rain chances through the end of the month. Whether we have any snow will need to be monitored. Especially as we move deeper into the month.
January 17th
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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This animation is the higher resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers January 9th through January 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers January 16th through January 22nd
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers January 20th through February 2nd
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
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