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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
CONDITIONS WILL VARY GREATLY THURSDAY. Warmer ahead of the front will rapidly falling temperatures behind the front.
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Also see Beau Dodson Weather app for that video and that is also where you can find the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and the long range video.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? No.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? No.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? Yes. Wind chill values will be bitterly cold behind the front Thursday through Sunday night. At times, wind chill temperatures will fall to -15 degrees!
5. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? Possible. Rain will change to snow Thursday and Thursday night. For now, light accumulation of a dusting/1″ to 3″ appears possible. Some data shows more. Some less. A flash freeze is likely behind the cold front Thursday. That means any moisture from the rain could freeze quickly on surfaces.
6. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? Monitor/low risk. A low risk of a brief period of freezing rain Thursday immediately behind the cold front.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
6. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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Monday, December 19, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Monday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 38°
Southeast Missouri ~ 36° to 40°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 38° to 42°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 36° to 40°
Southern Illinois ~ 36° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 42°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 42°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 38° to 42°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 42°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:05 AM
Sunset: 4:40 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 23° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 26°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 22° to 24°
Southern Illinois ~ 22° to 25°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 26°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 26° to 30°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 18° to 24°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:44 AM
Moonset: 1:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Tuesday, December 20, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 42°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40° to 44°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 44°
Far western Kentucky ~ 40° to 44°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 44°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40° to 44°
Winds will be from this direction: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 42°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 26°
Southeast Missouri ~ 24° to 28°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 24° to 28°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Southern Illinois ~ 24° to 28°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 24° to 28°
Far western Kentucky ~ 24° to 28°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 24° to 28°
Northwest Tennessee ~24° to 28°
Winds will be from this direction: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 22° to 28°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:55 AM
Moonset: 2:17 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 45°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 42° to 45°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 45°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40° to 45°
Far western Kentucky ~ 42° to 45°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 42° to 45°
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers developing late. Most likely it will be rain across the area. I will watch my far western counties for rain changing to snow.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 33° to 36°
Southeast Missouri ~ 34° to 38°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 34° to 38°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 33° to 36°
Southern Illinois ~ 34° to 38°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 34° to 38°
Far western Kentucky ~ 34° to 38°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 34° to 38°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 34° to 38°
Winds will be from this direction: East 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 5:09 AM
Moonset: 2:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Thursday, December 22, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Focus on impacts and not the snow. Bitterly cold air. Perhaps icy roadways (less confident on the snow vs the cold). The cold is coming. Mild ahead of the arctic front. Cold behind it. Becoming windy. Rain likely. Rain may change to freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Light accumulation possible. Flash freeze likely. A flash freeze is where moisture from rain freezes after temperatures fall so quickly that the rain hasn’t had time to dry off of parking lots, driveways, and so on.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Southeast Missouri ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Southern Illinois ~ 44° to 48° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 46° to 50° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Far western Kentucky ~ 45° to 50° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 48° to 52° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 46° to 52° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Northwest Tennessee ~ 46° to 52° then rapidly falling into the teens behind the front
Winds will be from this direction: Northeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 0° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front. Perhaps icy roads if snow develops or remaining moisture freezes.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and finish your activates before the cold front arrives.
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:06 AM
Sunset: 4:41 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of snow showers.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 80%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80%
Southern Illinois ~ 80%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80%
Far western Kentucky ~ 80%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 3° to 6°
Southeast Missouri ~ 6° to 10°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 6° to 12°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 3° to 6°
Southern Illinois ~ 5° to 10°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 6° to 12°
Far western Kentucky ~ 6° to 12°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 7° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 7° to14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 7° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -10° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Moonrise: 6:24 AM
Moonset: 3:51 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Friday, December 23, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Snow flurries possible.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 14°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10° to 14°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10° to 14°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 14°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10° to 14°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10° to 14°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10° to 14°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front. Perhaps icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:42 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Clearing. A chance of snow flurries. Bitterly cold.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Before midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0° to 4°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 3° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 3° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 3° to 6°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -15° to 0°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 7:38 AM
Moonset: 4:54 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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Saturday, December 24, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 14°
Southeast Missouri ~ 13° to 16°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 14° to 16°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 14°
Southern Illinois ~ 12° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 13° to 16°
Far western Kentucky ~ 13° to 16°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 13° to 16°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 13° to 16°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 14° to 16°
Winds will be from this direction: West 15 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -5° to 10°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold wind chill values behind the front.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 4:43 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0° to 4°
Southeast Missouri ~ 2° to 4°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 3° to 6°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Southern Illinois ~ 2° to 4°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 3° to 6°
Far western Kentucky ~ 3° to 6°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 3° to 6°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 3° to 6°
Winds will be from this direction: West 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: -6° to 5°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 8:41 AM
Moonset: 6:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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Sunday, December 25, 2022
Confidence in the forecast? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Bitterly cold. Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 18° to 22°
Southeast Missouri ~ 20° to 24°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20° to 24°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 18° to 22°
Southern Illinois ~ 20° to 22°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20° to 24°
Far western Kentucky ~ 20° to 24°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20° to 24°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 22° to 24°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15° to 20°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Bitterly cold morning hours.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 1. Low.
Sunrise: 7:08 AM
Sunset: 4:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
Southeast Missouri ~ 10° to 15°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10° to 15°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Southern Illinois ~ 10° to 15°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10° to 15°
Far western Kentucky ~ 10° to 15°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10° to 15°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10° to 15°
Winds will be from this direction:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5° to 15°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:34 AM
Moonset: 7:25 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click the tab below.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through January 5th: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. It has no significant meaning.
The solid thick black line has no significant meaning.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Bitterly cold air is on the way. Focus on impacts within this forecast. Cold temperatures.
- Rain likely and milder ahead of the front Thursday.
- Flash freeze likely behind the front with rapidly falling temperatures.
- Light snow possible. Medium confidence (40%) in the snow forecast. The impact would be icy roads.
Weather advice:
Monitor updates. An active weather pattern over the new few weeks. Several chances of precipitation.
Current Weather Discussion
Well, we all know what the primary weather topic is going to be today! Cold temperatures.
Once again, I remind everyone to focus on the impacts of the forecast and not the snow totals (if any).
The impacts will be bitterly cold temperatures and wind chill values leading to busted pipes, an increased risk of house fires, frost bite on exposed skin, and harsh conditions for livestock and outside animals.
It will warm up ahead of the front. Don’t be surprised if some locations hit 50 degrees Thursday! Then, temperatures will fall into the teens immediately behind the arctic cold front.
A real shock to the system. You will walk outside one hour and only need a light jacket. The next hour you will need to be fully bundled up and shivering!
Here is that temperature animation. Double click on the animation to enlarge it. Just look at how fast that cold air arrives! Brr.
Rain will develop late Wednesday night into Thursday. The rain will occur ahead of the front.
This rain will then change to a brief period of snow Thursday afternoon and/or night. The timing of the change to snow will depend on your location.
The front will first arrive in southeast Missouri and then push eastward rapidly.
Temperatures could fall 20+ degrees in one hour.
This could lead to a flash freeze. What is a flash freeze? A flash freeze occurs when temperatures fall so quickly that moisture left over form rain freezes on parking lots, driveways, sidewalks, and so on.
That moisture comes from the rain that feel in the milder air. This can cause slick spots.
In addition to the flash freeze, I can’t rule out snow showers behind the front.
For planning purposes, I have been forecasting a dusting/1″ to 3″. Data varies from no snow at all to over six inches.
My going forecast will remain the same for planning purposes. Best case is that it doesn’t snow. Worse case is that we have icy roads. Either way, you were prepared.
Hopefully, the snow holds off. It is Christmas weekend and we don’t want people shut in. I know, yes yes. Some of us want a white Christmas. At the same time, we also want to be with family.
The bitterly cold temperatures are concern.
Check on elderly people. Make sure they are properly using space heaters and other heating devices. Typically, during this kind of cold weather we have an increased risk of house fires.
People are also trying to save money. Electric bills are higher than they were a year ago. Thus, some people may try new types of heating methods. Again, this can cause issues.
Exposed skin can get frost-bite quickly in temperatures like those being forecast. Make sure kids and adults cover fingers, ears, and exposed skin.
Wind chill values could dip below -10. Bitterly cold temperatures.
That concern will be Thursday into Saturday night/Sunday morning.
All in all, this is a cold wave event. Perhaps some snow (no promises on the snow portion of the forecast).
Cold cold cold.
Let me show you two models. Two snow forecasts.
The EC and the GFS. I don’t put much stock in model snow forecasts, but this at least gives you an idea of what some of the data is showing.
EC
GFS model.
Both show light totals.
The GEFS ensembles show this.
Gusty winds would blow the snow around. Keep that in mind. Again, focus on impact and not totals. Bitterly cold air and perhaps icy roads.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Models are not picking up on much precipitation through Sunday night.
They show scattered sprinkles or flurries today into tomorrow.
You can barely see them on these graphics.
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavy rain.
Red represents freezing rain. Purple represents sleet. Blue represents snow. Dark blue represents heavy snow.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
Double click on image to enlarge it
Morning long-range update (usually updated after 10:30 AM).
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
Click on the image to expand it.
This outlook covers December 19th through December 25th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 29 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers December 26th through January 1st
Click on the image to expand it
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 25 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers December 30th through January 12th
Precipitation outlook
Monthly Outlooks
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
December Temperature Outlook
December Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
January Temperature Outlook
January Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
February Temperature Outlook
February Precipitation Outlook
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Winter Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Temperature
Precipitation
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The Winter Outlook has been posted. Another La Nina winter. As always, there will be wild cards in the forecast.
La Nina means that portions of the Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal. El Nino means that the Pacific waters are warmer than normal.
Learn more about La Nina at the following link CLICK HERE
La Niña means Little Girl in Spanish. La Niña is also sometimes called El Viejo, anti-El Niño, or simply “a cold event.” La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.
These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North
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No two winters are alike. No two La Nina’s are alike.
The last two winters have been La Nina winters. Both winters delivered a variety of weather conditions.
As you know, during the past two winters we did experience severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. That is not unusual for La Nina conditions.
I do expect an increased risk of severe thunderstorms and ice. Those are common during the La Nina winter years.
We will have to monitor the NAO. If it does go negative then we have increased probabilities of cold air intrusions.
What is the NAO? Click here for more information.
Let’s keep in mind, that long range forecasts are less accurate than short-range forecasts.
What we can’t tell you are the possible extreme events. You could have a mild December and January and the winter be backloaded with cold and snow during the Month of February. Or, the other way around.
We can’t tell you if there will be one large ice-storm or one large tornado outbreak. Long-range outlooks don’t work that way.
People tend to remember winters as severe if there is a mega-event. Like the big ice storm in 2009. Everyone will remember that winter. Like the December tornado last year. Everyone will remember that winter.
We are able to tell you, with some degree of certainty, the overall generalities of the winter.
Of course, I understand that everyone wants to know if there will be a big snowstorm or a big event. We aren’t that accurate, yet. Those type of forecasts are left for short-range weather outlooks. Not long range ones.
Here is what will influence the winter.
ENSO. La Nina. The third year in a row. Rare to have three La Nina’s in a row. This has only happened three times in recorded history.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
Outlook thoughts.
Odds favor December through February, when all is said and done, averaging above normal in the temperature department. Above average in the precipitation department.
That certainly does not mean there won’t be cold spells.
Our region typically experiences a wide variety of weather during the winter months. That includes snow, ice, and severe thunderstorms. I would be surprised if this winter doesn’t deliver those conditions.
To better read the graphic, double click on it.
** NOTE the December through February graphics have been updated. The latest ones are these two **
Temperature
Precipitation
Great news! The videos are now found in your WeatherTalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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